OD = Over-dosis...
> Hohohoho... > > Salam, > Korban BUMI? Makan cumi saja! > > > > ----- Original Message ----- *From:* Danareksa Equity > Research<e...@danareksa.com> > *Sent:* Wednesday, February 18, 2009 12:01 PM > *Subject:* United Tractors (UNTR IJ, Rp 5,750 BUY) Pama Contribution > Boosts > Sales > > *United Tractors* > > > > Pama Contribution Boosts Sales > > > > *Higher Jan 09 sales with Pama's help* > > UNTR was able to deliver 216 units in Jan 09. Of this, 23% were delivered > to > Pama. Pama usually accounts for only around 15% of the sales. UNTR said > this trend of higher Pama sales will likely continue up to June 09 asPama > needs to replace existing equipment and purchase new equipment to expand > its > capacity. Pama expects to spend $250mn on capex this year as its 09F > production target has been increased by 10% yoy while its stripping ratio > shows no signs of coming down (Jan 09's SR: 8.1 vs FY08's 7.5). > > > > *Maintaining a Leading Position* > > Komatsu has retained its leading position in the heavy equipment market > and > its market share in Jan 09 increased significantly to 51.8% from 44.6% in > Dec 08. As such, we believe our target of 3,000 units for the full year > is > reasonable as the backlog for unit sales has reached 750 units and, in > addition, we expect demand to recover in 2H09 as commodity prices > stabilize. > > > > *Weak Pama & DEJ production due to seasonality* > > Pama's Jan 09 coal production was weak at 4.8mn tons, 7.3% of our full > year > target. The weak coal production can be explained by seasonal factors as > high rainfall tends to hamper production, in South Kalimantan. DEJ was > only > able to sell 201,000 tons of coal in Jan 09, 5% of our full year forecast. > > * * > > *Upgrade TP to Rp6,100, maintain BUY* > > We raise our 09-10F earnings forecasts by 17.5%-16.1% as we apply new > forex, > inflation, and lower tax rate assumptions to our forecasts. UNTR remains > one of our top picks in the commodity sector as we like its business model > and robust earnings growth (2008-10F EBITDA CAGR of 19.9% and 2009-10F ROE > of 21.3%-19.3%). Our TP implies PE09-10F of 8.5-7.9x, BUY. > > > > *Felicia Barus*** > > (62-21) 351 0749 > > feli...@danareksa.com > > > > **************** > CONFIDENTIALITY: The information contained in or attached to this > electronic transmission > is confidential and may be legally privileged. It is intended for the > named recipient(s) only. > If you are not the named recipient, you are hereby notified that any > distribution, copying, > review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of this electronic > transmission or > the information contained in it is strictly prohibited. > The information expressed herein may contain the private views and > opinions of the sender > that does not constitute the formal views and opinions of PT. > Danareksa (Persero) and its > subsidiaries, and should not in any ways be construed as the views, > offers, or acceptances > of these entities, unless specifically stated. PT. Danareksa (Persero) > and its subsidiaries > does not take any responsibilities nor accepts any claims of > liabilities and/or damages > for statements which are clearly the sender's own and not made on > behalf of the entities > concerned. >
