Ini hanya pendapat saya saja ya,.... Sistem WTA seperti ini sebenarnya bukan hal yang baru bagi yang hobi utak-atik indikator-2 TA.
Konsepnya sebenarnya mirip dengan yg dilakukan salah satu senior / Pengajar OB disini, kalau nggk salah pak Widhie lewat widhi listnya,.. hanya saja, cara peleburan dari masing-2 indikator TA yang dipakai, diberi pembobotan yang berbeda-2, berdasarkan "tingkat keakuratan" tiap indikator pada pergerakan harga saham, lewat backtesting pada suatu periode waktu tertentu. Sehingga saat digabungkan, nantinya, bisa menghadirkan suatu nilai rating, yang kemudian akan dijadikan dasar beli / tahan / jual. Agar sistem WTA ini bisa bersifat "universal", backtesting dilakukan pada suatu "basket of stocks". Ini artinya, sistem ini baru akan mempunyai rasio keakuratan yang *terlihat* tinggi bila diterapkan pada pada 'basket of stocks' jg... Artinya, sistem WTA ini bisa misleading saat diterapkan oleh investor / trader yang main saham portfolionya nggk lebih dari 3-5 saham. So,..kembali lagi....tidak ada sistem yg perfect..& .tidak ada holy grail... On Wed, Mar 25, 2009 at 4:52 PM, ruzli <indeksbei3...@gmail.com> wrote: > Super Technical Analysis > Thx for all, termasuk Embah OB > > EVALUATION WTA > OVERALL RESULT : > TRUE : 18 > FALSE : 7 > NEUTRAL : 3 > > IHSG : Shooting star candle, Overbouhgt, Dow down. Will test support > at 1,400-1,410. > Result : 1,419 beda tipis lah > INDF : if tomorrow can't break 1,000. will test support at 960-970. > Target Price at 1,030 in short term. > Result : True ( Close at 960 ) > BUMI : Hit our target at 800, tomorrow will test support at 760-780. > Resistance at 820, and target price at 850. > Result : TRUE ( sempet Hit 780 support ) > JSMR : Break 900 with high volume, will test 950 in short term. > Support at 880-890. > Result : True ( Sempet hit 950 ) > TLKM : Double top at 7,550, will test support at 7,150-7,200 tomorrow, > Target price at 7,550. > Result : True ( close at support 7,150 and test 7,500 ) > PGAS : Hit our target, will test support at 2,050-2,075 tomorrow. > Resistance at 2,200. > Result : TRUE ( Hit 2,200 ) > BMRI : Break 2,100 with high volume, will test support at 2,100-2,125 > or will test to break resistance at 2,225-2,275. > Result : TRUE ( hit support at 2,100 ) > INCO : Break 2,200 with high volume, Congrats to all, will test > 2,425-2,475 in short term, support at 2,300. > RESULT : FALSE > ANTM : Hit our target at 1,150-1,160. Tomorrow will test support at > 1,110-1,130. Resistance at 1,170-1,180. Target Price at 1,200. > Result : TRUE ( Close at support 1,130) > PTBA : Can't break 7,050. will test support at 6,700-6,750 tomorrow. > Resistance at 7,050-7,100. > Result : FALSE > ITMG : Be careful if can't close above 10,100 tomorrow, Triple top > Reveresal. Support at 9,850-9,900. Resistance at 10,400-10,500. > Result : TRUE ( Hit support 9,850 ) > BBCA : Very2 Overbought, tomorrow will test support at 3,025-3,050. > Resistance at 3,175-3,200. > Result : TRUE ( Hit 3,175 ) > ASII : Close below our target, off high session. will test support at > 14,650-14,750 tomorrow. Resistance at 15,500. > Result : NEUTRAL ( Hampir benar karena offer di 15,500 ) > AALI : Be careful with profit taking action, will test support at > 13,200-13,300 tomorrow. Resistance at 14,000-14,050. Overbought > Result : FALSE > LSIP : Break 3,400 as our target and now go to 3,500. Will test 3,600 > in short term. Support at 3,400-3,425. > Result : TRUE ( Hit support at 3,425 ) > MEDC: Break 2,250. will test 2,450 in short term if oli price up. > Support at 2,200-2,225. > Result : TRUE ( Hit 2,450 ) > ELSA : Break 158, will test 165 in short term. Support at 150-152. > RESULT : FALSE > UNSP : Hit our target at 330. If tomorrow close below 310, you can > average buy. Target price at 330-340. > Result : TRUE ( Test 310 ) > ELTY : Break 82 and will test 90 in short term. Support at 77-78. > Result : FALSE > UNTR : Profit taking action, will test 6,100-6,200 tomorrow. > Resistance at 6,500-6,550. Overbought. > Result : FALSE > SMCB : Hit our target at 600, If tomorrow close above 600, Will go to > 650 in short term and 680 in medium term. Support at 560. > Result : TRUE ( Close at support 560 ) > PNLF : Yes-yes to ICA, PNLF break 60 as my target to you, that's right > ???????. Target at 70. Support at 60. > Result : TRUE ( Break 70 ) > HEXA : Auto rejection, Will test resistance at 1,180-1,200, support at > 1,000. > Result : TRUE ( Close at 1,000 ) > ADRO : Shooting star candle, buy with target at 970-980. Support at > 820. Be careful with fluctuative stock like this. > RESULT : NEUTRAL ( karena untuk medium term ) > TINS : Begin uptrend, will test 1,120-1,130 in short term. Support at > 1,070-1,080. > Result : TRUE ( Close at 1,070 ) > SMGR : Buy with target price at 4,000. Support at 3,725-3,750. > Result : TRUE ( Close at 3,725 ) > ISAT : Hit our target at 4,600. Will test to break 4,700 tomorrow. if > break will go to 4,750-4,775 in short term. Support at 4,450-4,500 > Result : FALSE > BISI : Target 1,420-1,430 if break 1,350 ( SHOUTBOX ) > RESULT : TRUE ( Close at 1,420 ) > Posted by Super Technical Analysis for Stock at 4:24 PM > > Pada 25 Maret 2009 16:15, jsx_consultant > <jsx-consult...@centrin.net.id <jsx-consultant%40centrin.net.id>> menulis: > > Evaluasi prediksi: > > - IHSG bener turun tapi prediksi saham masih lebih banyak > > salah daripada bener... > > > > Tapi hari ini MEMANG sangat sukar diprediksi, jadi embah kira > > evaluasi hari ini BELUM menggambarkan keampuhan yg sebenarnya > > dari WTA Billy... > > > > Kita test lagi hari Jumat.... > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com <obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>, > "jsx_consultant" <jsx-consult...@...> > > wrote: > >> > >> > > TLKM : Double top at 7,550, will test support at 7,150-7,200 > tomorrow, > >> > > Target price at 7,550. > >> > >> TLKM saat ini 7150, oke ... tapi target 7550 ???? > >> > >> IHSG masih -7, pak DE masih ada harapan... > >> > >> > >> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com<obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>, > "jsx_consultant" <jsx-consultant@> > >> wrote: > >> > > >> > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com<obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>, > "jsx_consultant" > >> > <jsx-consultant@> wrote: > >> > > > >> > > Coba kita TEST kehebatan WTA, ini prediksinya buat hari INI: > >> > > > >> > > > >> > > TECHNICAL : > >> > > IHSG : Shooting star candle, Overbouhgt, Dow down. Will test support > >> > > at 1,400-1,410. > >> > > >> > pak DE, prediksi IHSG hari ini masih IJO, Billy prediksi bilang > >> > mau ke 1400-1410 atau -26 / -36 > >> > > >> > pak DE pake analisa apa, WTS yah... becanda...hehehe... > >> > > >> > Pak DE, dulu anda menyarankan pembobotan indikator, apakah > >> > WTA ini sudah ada dari dulu atau pak DE dapet dari si Billy ?. > >> > > >> > Apakah si Billy ini penemu WTA atau membuat suatu versi pembobotan > >> > dengan konsep WTA ?. > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > INDF : if tomorrow can't break 1,000. will test support at 960-970. > >> > > Target Price at 1,030 in short term. > >> > > BUMI : Hit our target at 800, tomorrow will test support at 760-780. > >> > > Resistance at 820, and target price at 850. > >> > > JSMR : Break 900 with high volume, will test 950 in short term. > >> > > Support at 880-890. > >> > > TLKM : Double top at 7,550, will test support at 7,150-7,200 > tomorrow, > >> > > Target price at 7,550. > >> > > PGAS : Hit our target, will test support at 2,050-2,075 tomorrow. > >> > > Resistance at 2,200. > >> > > BMRI : Break 2,100 with high volume, will test support at > 2,100-2,125 > >> > > or will test to break resistance at 2,225-2,275. > >> > > INCO : Break 2,200 with high volume, Congrats to all, will test > >> > > 2,425-2,475 in short term, support at 2,300. > >> > > ANTM : Hit our target at 1,150-1,160. Tomorrow will test support at > >> > > 1,110-1,130. Resistance at 1,170-1,180. Target Price at 1,200. > >> > > PTBA : Can't break 7,050. will test support at 6,700-6,750 tomorrow. > >> > > Resistance at 7,050-7,100. > >> > > ITMG : Be careful if can't close above 10,100 tomorrow, Triple top > >> > > Reveresal. Support at 9,850-9,900. Resistance at 10,400-10,500. > >> > > BBCA : Very2 Overbought, tomorrow will test support at 3,025-3,050. > >> > > Resistance at 3,175-3,200. > >> > > ASII : Close below our target, off high session. will test support > at > >> > > 14,650-14,750 tomorrow. Resistance at 15,500. > >> > > AALI : Be careful with profit taking action, will test support at > >> > > 13,200-13,300 tomorrow. Resistance at 14,000-14,050. Overbought > >> > > LSIP : Break 3,400 as our target and now go to 3,500. Will test > 3,600 > >> > > in short term. Support at 3,400-3,425. > >> > > MEDC: Break 2,250. will test 2,450 in short term if oli price up. > >> > > Support at 2,200-2,225. > >> > > ELSA : Break 158, will test 165 in short term. Support at 150-152. > >> > > UNSP : Hit our target at 330. If tomorrow close below 310, you can > >> > > average buy. Target price at 330-340. > >> > > ELTY : Break 82 and will test 90 in short term. Support at 77-78. > >> > > UNTR : Profit taking action, will test 6,100-6,200 tomorrow. > >> > > Resistance at 6,500-6,550. Overbought. > >> > > SMCB : Hit our target at 600, If tomorrow close above 600, Will go > to > >> > > 650 in short term and 680 in medium term. Support at 560. > >> > > PNLF : Yes-yes to ICA, PNLF break 60 as my target to you, that's > right > >> > > ???????. Target at 70. Support at 60. > >> > > HEXA : Auto rejection, Will test resistance at 1,180-1,200, support > at > >> > > 1,000. > >> > > ADRO : Shooting star candle, buy with target at 970-980. Support at > >> > > 820. Be careful with fluctuative stock like this. > >> > > TINS : Begin uptrend, will test 1,120-1,130 in short term. Support > at > >> > > 1,070-1,080. > >> > > SMGR : Buy with target price at 4,000. Support at 3,725-3,750. > >> > > ISAT : Hit our target at 4,600. Will test to break 4,700 tomorrow. > if > >> > > break will go to 4,750-4,775 in short term. Support at 4,450-4,500. > >> > > > >> > > > >> > > > >> > > --- In > >> > > obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com<obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>, > "M|C" <michael.cupert@> wrote: > >> > > > > >> > > > Penasaran mbah, siapa sih si Billy ini sebenarnya ? mbah sendiri > >> > > > atau orang > >> > > > lain ? > >> > > > > >> > > > Pada tanggal 24/03/09, jsx_consultant <jsx-consultant@> > >> > > > menulis: > >> > > > > > >> > > > > WEIGHTED TECHNICAL ANALYSIS > >> > > > > WTA adalah suatu sistem pembobotan saham dimana setiap indikator > >> > > > > teknikal > >> > > > > saham diberikan bobot yang berbeda sesuai proses trial and > error, > >> > > > > stelah > >> > > > > mendapat nilai dari masing2 indikator maka kita akan mendapatkan > >> > > > > rating > >> > > > > untuk suatu saham apakah layak dibeli, ditahan, atau dijual. > >> > > > > > >> > > > > Dan sesuai rating teknikal masing2 saham, kita akan menentukan > >> > > > > besaran > >> > > > > support dan resistance saham tersebut. > >> > > > > > >> > > > > Jadi WTA itu ibarat bollinger band intraday yang membatasi > >> > > > > pergerakan harga > >> > > > > saham. > >> > > > > > >> > > > > Namun WTA juga bisa digunakan untuk swing trade, maupun long > term > >> > > > > trade. > >> > > > > > >> > > > > Itulah rahasia kesuksesan saya selama 6 tahun dari umur 10 tahun > >> > > > > sampai > >> > > > > sekarang 16 tahun dan berhasil MENCETAK PROFIT 519 % ( Hasil > rugi > >> > > > > 2 tahun > >> > > > > pertama sebesar 88 %, dan profit dari tahun ke-3 sampai sekarang > >> > > > > yaitu 431 % > >> > > > > ). > >> > > > > > >> > > > > WTA memang sudah saya design untuk membatasi pergerakan harga ( > >> > > > > jika memang > >> > > > > harga bergerak berdasarkan teknikal bukan fundamental news ), > >> > > > > meskipun saya > >> > > > > di sekolah ,toh harga saham tidak akan meleset jauh dari hasil > WTA > >> > > > > yang > >> > > > > sudah saya hitung. > >> > > > > > >> > > > > Oleh karena WTA lah, saya mampu dikontrak salah satu sekuritas > >> > > > > asing > >> > > > > ternama pada tahun 2008 sebagai calon fund manager and stock > >> > > > > analyst setelah > >> > > > > lulus SMA atau kuliah nanti. > >> > > > > > >> > > > > WTA selama saya gunakan 2 tahun ini memiliki akurasi 80 %-90 %. > >> > > > > Dan sudah > >> > > > > banyak rekan2 saham termasuk analis perusahaan sekuritas yang > >> > > > > memuji WTA > >> > > > > buatan Billy ini. > >> > > > > Banyak yang kerugiannya bisa tercover setelah menggunakan WTA > ini. > >> > > > > > >> > > > > Dan setelah bulan Juni 2009, kemungkinan Billy akan jarang > >> > > > > memosting > >> > > > > tulisan di blog ini lagi, karena sudah harus aktif di perusahaan > >> > > > > sekuritas > >> > > > > tersebut. > >> > > > > > >> > > > > Sehingga rekan2 akan sangat jarang melihat postingan ku lagi, > tapi > >> > > > > billy > >> > > > > bersyukur sudah membagikan ilmu WTA kepada 218 orang, sehingga > >> > > > > mereka tak > >> > > > > akan kesusahan saat nanti bertransaksi saham di Bulan Juni 2009- > >> > > > > seterusnya. > >> > > > > > >> > > > > > >> > > > > Dengan kesibukan tersebut, maka Billy juga akan menggelar > workshop > >> > > > > dengan > >> > > > > tenggat waktu yang lebih lama yaitu 1 x / 6 bulan > >> > > > > > >> > > > > Workshop akan kita lakukan lagi pada akhir April 2009 / awal Mei > >> > > > > 2009 dan > >> > > > > yang terakhir akan dilaksanakan Akhir bulan Juni 2009 saat > liburan > >> > > > > sekolah ( > >> > > > > tentunya setelah Billy ikut Ujian Sekolah ) > >> > > > > > >> > > > > Itulah gambaran umum tentang WTA > >> > > > > > >> > > > > THX Jesus Lord for your beautiful and AMAZING PLAN in my life. > GBU > >> > > > > ALL. > >> > > > > > >> > > > > > >> > > > > > >> > > > > >> > > > >> > > >> > > > > > >
