UNTR = 50% aja dari ASII = anggap aja minimal Rp. 10.250 …hehehe
From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Joe Grunk Sent: Fri, 08 May 2009 15:13 PM To: sa...@yahoogroups.com; obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [ob] ASII 20.500, UNTR berapa? Jawabannya: Nunggu giliran ya... --- Pada Jum, 8/5/09, Yudizz <yudiz...@gmail.com> menulis: Dari: Yudizz <yudiz...@gmail.com> Topik: RE: [ob] Fw: CS Indo: Upgrade Indonesia Overweight (Top Picks ASII, BUMI, UNTR), Upgrade ASII (21,200) & UNTR Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Tanggal: Jumat, 8 Mei, 2009, 12:57 AM Hihihi, baru nyadar tuh si CS. Ketinggalan kereta bro, sekarang mah waktunya jualan. Masa kalah sama trader kampoeng, gue sih udah ngajak sejak Februari, kekekek… http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/message/136609 http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/message/137645 http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/message/138672 Regards, Yudizz _____ From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com ] On Behalf Of Herman Sent: Friday, May 08, 2009 11:41 AM To: obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups. Com Subject: [ob] Fw: CS Indo: Upgrade Indonesia Overweight (Top Picks ASII, BUMI, UNTR), Upgrade ASII (21,200) & UNTR Indonesia Equity Sales CS Indo: Upgrade Indonesia Overweight (Top Picks ASII, BUMI, UNTR), Upgrade ASII (21,200) & UNTR (11,400)! ASIAN EQ STRATEGY: Upgrade Indonesia Overweight- Top Picks ASII, BUMI, UNTR iSay: Asian Strategist Sakthi Siva is now Overweight Indonesia with Top-3 Picks in her model portfolio- ASII, BUMI & UNTR. Indonesian Strategist Arief Wana has his Top-5 Picks in Indonesia ASII, PGAS, UNTR, BBRI & TLKM. At JCI 1,798pts, CS Indonesia Universe is currently tr adi ng on 13.0x-10.4x 2009F-2010F respectively (after recent upgrades in Astra, Banks, and United Tractors), and assuming valuation of 12x 2010F PER (historical average circa 13x rolling forward PER), JCI could hit 2,100pt at year end. · Sakthi Siva (Flash Report): We are upgr adi ng Indonesia to OVERWEIGHT from Neutral – cheap Cyclicals, and Singapore to OVERWEIGHT from Underweight. In our reports on 23 April and 4 May, Any Cheap Cyclicals Left?, we suggested that Indonesian coal was tr adi ng at a 176% discount to the region. We are funding these upgrades by trimming our Overweight calls on China (up 96% from the October lows, the best performer) and Korea . Top picks in Indonesia- we are keeping Astra International but adding Bumi Resources and United Tractors. ASTRA INT’L (ASII): Upgrades on better loans loss & UNTR upgrade- reit Core Buy! iSay: At Rp18,950/share, ASII is tr adi ng on Undemanding 10.3x-9.1x 2009F-2010F PER, and 11% Discount to SOTP Rp21,200/share. I agree with Arief Wana that ASII is a Core Holding in Indonesia , due to quality management, diversified earnings from both Resources and Domestic Consumers-related sectors, and solid balance sheet! · Arief Wana (Daily): Astra’s 1Q09 results showed positive developments on two key fronts, namely 1) loss on repossessed assets and 2) strong United Tractors’ performance. Coupled with a lower tax rate, we are upgr adi ng our forecasts by 12-17% for FY09E-10E and TP to Rp21,200 (from Rp14,500 previously). · Loss on reposessed assets, which was the major dragging factor in the 2006 crisis, was not a factor so far. In our view, this could suggest 1) better, resilient purchasing power in general and 2) better control over financing activities. We halve our loss estimates to Rp500bn (vs. 1Q09 of only Rp67bn and 2006 of Rp949bn). · In addition, we have upgraded United Tractors by 17-42% on the back of higher ASPs, weaker rupiah, and therefore margins (please see note/Daily below). · Although we expect auto volume to remain soft this year (and bottoming in 2Q09), we continue to like Astra International as a core holding for the Indonesian market given its strong market positioning, conservative management and strong balance sheet. Our new TP of Rp21,200 implies a 10.2-11.5x FY09E-10E PER (which is relatively in line with the market for FY10E) and 5.3-5.7x FY09E-10E EV/EBITDA multiples. We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on the stock. UNITED TRACTORS (UNTR): Still Positive, Upgrade EPS & TP (Rp11,400)- reit Buy iSay: At Rp9,000/share, UNTR is tr adi ng on Undemanding 9.8x-9.1x 2009F-2010F PER, and 21% Discount to SOTP Rp11,400/share. I agree with Arief Wana that UNTR deserves a premium to coal sector and market due to quality management and solid balance sheet, while offering a unique leverage play on Indonesian coal production growth with Upside from Coal mines acquisitions! · Arief Wana (Daily, Report emailed yesterday): We have just published a report on United Tractors (UT). UT’s robust 1Q09 results, stemming from higher ASPs, a weaker IDR and therefore margins – due to inventory gains and a bigger proportion of higher margins in the parts and services division – have beaten our as well as the street’s expectations. · The strong results reaffirm our view that UT’s business is not only resilient, but also offers positive leverage on a weaker IDR. We have therefore upgraded our forecasts by 17-42% over FY09-11E (putting our forecasts 13-23% above the street’s), while maintaining our volume assumptions. · Despite the positive share price performance, we believe that the recovery in equipment volumes and strong earnings are likely to be the main catalysts for the company. Low gearing should give UT flexibility for future expansion. We have increased our sum-of-the-parts-based (SOTP) target price by 24% to Rp11,400 (from Rp9,200), implying 27% upside, a P/E multiple of 11.5x FY10E and 5.8x FY10E EV/EBITDA. We therefore maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on the stock. Best Regards, Dharwin Yuwono, CFA Director- Indonesia Equity Sales PT Credit Suisse Securities Indonesia Sampoerna Strategic Square, South Tower , 23rd Floor, Jl. Jend Sudirman Kav.45/46, Jakarta 12930 , Indonesia Dealing: +6221 2553 7920 Toll Free: 001 800 1233 2526 (HK) Toll Free: +800 1233 2526 (SIN/UK/US) Office : +6221 2553 7978 Fax : +6221 2553 7990 Mobile : +62811 979 788 Email: dharwin.yuw...@credit-suisse.com Please follow the attached hyperlink to an important disclaimer http://www.csfb.com/legal_terms/market_commentary_disclaimer_asia.shtml ============================================================================== Please access the attached hyperlink for an important electronic communications disclaimer: http://www.credit-suisse.com/legal/en/disclaimer_email_ib.html ============================================================================== **************** CONFIDENTIALITY: The information contained in or attached to this electronic transmission is confidential and may be legally privileged. It is intended for the named recipient(s) only. 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