Saya terima Saturday , May 9, 2009 jam 01.30 PM pak Ferry...hahahahaha
--- On Sat, 5/9/09, Ferry Wachjudi <ferry.wachj...@gmail.com> wrote:
From: Ferry Wachjudi <ferry.wachj...@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [ob] Re: Fw: FOCUS (08-May-2009) BNBR: For those who miss the rally
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Date: Saturday, May 9, 2009, 1:30 PM
mbah,
bagaimana kalau lihat yg dikolom "owner
ship value". Biar tidur bisa lebih nyenyak nich...he..he. .he
Thanks & Rgds,
Ferry W.
http://budidaya- jamur-tiram. blogspot. com/
----- Original Message -----
From:
jsx_consultant
To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com
Sent: Friday, May 08, 2009 5:17 AM
Subject: [ob] Re: Fw: FOCUS (08-May-2009)
BNBR: For those who miss the rally
Baca pdf researh Mandiri dibawah ini:
- BUMI fair price 1815, hari
ini 1960. Masih cocok dibanding yg
kasih cuman 500... hehehe...
- UNSP
fair price 250, hari ini 690. Ada yg punya research
pembanding untuk UNSP
?.
- BTEL fair price 68, hari ini 107.
- ENRG fair price 180, hari ini
280.
- ELTY fair price 250, hari ini 210
- BNBR fair price 106 based on
fair price anak perusahan,
fair price 129 based on market price anak
perusahaan hari ini.
Cuman ELTY dan BNBR yang belum mencapai Fair
price.
Kalo EL mau BNBR akhir tahun menjadi 400, maka saham
anak
perusahaan harus naik = 400/129 = 3,1 kali.
Jadi akhir tahun:
- BUMI
harus menjadi = 3,1 x 1960 = 6076
- UNSP = 3,1 X 690 = 2139
-
dst.
Target BNBR EL sangat berat sekali kecuali minyak balik
diatas
100 dollar.
Ada yg percaya minyak balik ke 100 pada akhir tahun
?.
--- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com,
indra affandi <indras...@. ..> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> For those who
miss the rally
>
> BNBR’s listed
> subsidiaries, which
contribute 84.5% to BNBR value, have experienced average
> 142.9% stock
price rally for the last 1 month while BNBR stock price only
> increased
by 66.0%. Debt restructuring amounting to Rp4.26tn relaxed
> solvability
pressure by lengthening debt maturity date. Beside that, SPIJ sale,
>
resulted in US$55.5mn additional cash, strengthened the company’s
cash
> position. The stock is undervalued with current market price
putting BNBR as if
> it o nly had BUMI and ELTY, neglecting the
remaining listed and non-listed
> subsidiaries. Using SOTP method, we
deem BNBR fair price of Rp129/share based
> on market price and
Rp106/share based on our estimated fair price on listed
>
subsidiaries’ values.
>
> Lower solvability risk. The
company
> entered into debt restructuring agreement that provides some
relaxation after
> high solvability tension resulting from its Rp4.26tn
obligation to Northstar
> consortium which originally scheduled to
mature this year. Basically, this debt
> restructuring agreed on (1)
lengthening debt maturity (Rp310bn on 2009, and
> Rp3.95tn on 2012), and
(2) charging interest expense (15.0%-19.0% ) that will be
> deferred
and paid as a bullet payment along with principal maturity.
>
>
Stronger cash position. In late April
> 2009, the company sold 24.5%
ownership in SPIJ, steel pipe manufacture
> subsidiary, raising
US$55.5mn cash. We view it positively because (1) SPIJ has
> been less
profitable relative to BNBR’s listed subsidiaries, and (2) the
>
proceeds ensure the company’s solvability to meet its Rp279.0bn tranche
B
> debt which l matures on Sept 2009.
>
> Buy BNBR, get
UNSP, BTEL,
> and ENRG for free! A check on BNBR value composition
reveals
> that at the current price of Rp83/share, BNBR value is
approximately equal to
> its ownership only in BUMI and ELTY. Therefore,
rather than collecting all of
> BNBR’s subsidiaries stocks
individually, it would be more profitable to
> acquire them collectively
by buying BNBR shares. Moreover, investors would get
> not only its
listed subsidiaries, but also its non-listed infrastructure
>
subsidiaries. These non-listed subsidiaries have already won several
>
infrastructure projects which are expected to start in the next couple
of
> years, once the economy recovers.
>
> Valuation. We
derived
> BNBR’s fair price using SOTP method. We apply a book-value
multiple of
> 1.0x to value the non-listed subsidiaries. For listed
subsidiaries, we use
> market prices and Mandiri Sekuritas’ fair price
estimate separately
> (except for ENRG that uses consensus fair price
estimate because it is outside
> our coverage). Market price-based SOTP
results in BNBR fair price of
> Rp129/share while fair price-based SOTP
results in BNBR fair price of
> Rp106/share.
>
> What are
the risks?Main risks in
> investing on BNBR stock are changes in
ownership on its subsidiaries and
> commodity price fluctuation that
heavily impacted BUMI, UNSP and ENRG
> performance.
>
>
> Yohan Setio
> +6221
> 5296 9548
>
yohan.setio@ ...
> Plaza
> Mandiri 28th floor
>
Fax:
> +62 21 527 5711
> Phone:
> +62 21 526 3445
>
>
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