quote "they would say Indonesia's economy is improving...hehehehehe...."
and The President is smiling!
Now what the president may think guys?
Frederick Schubert <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
welll...i just wanna remind you that foreign funds portfolio on
jakarta bourse is only 30% of the total caps of around $120 billion....
so, let's dream the worst case..if they sold out the 30% (which is VERY
impossible indeed) the main index COULD fall as much as 534 points or to
1246....this level is even better than the closing level of 2005 of
1162...which means that the jakarta bourse could grow withoutTHEM... the
problem is that there is a CYCLICALl period when the hedge funds should return
to their TRUSTY (in U.S.) every January 15.... The number, howvere, is less
than $2 billion... If Indonesia's investment weigting is 0.4%...so, you can
calculate yourself how much hedge funds left to be withdrawn...BUT, the most
interested thing is that whenever they roll out the hedge fund and return to
Indonesia for program buying...what would analysts say..? they would say
Indonesia's economy is improving...hehehehehe....
disclaimer on...
cheers
Handoyo Gozali <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
any commend, Uncle Schubert ?
Dana asing di bursa Asia diduga hengkang ke AS JAKARTA: Pemodal asing
mengurangi dananya di bursa saham Asia Pasifik dan diduga mengalihkan
portofolionya ke bursa AS dan Eropa. Akibatnya, dana asing yang parkir di
sebagian bursa kawasan Asia berkurang drastis pada dua hari terakhir
perdagangan. Sentimen negatif itu dipicu oleh lontaran rencana pembatasan
modal di Thailand.
Data Bloomberg menunjukkan dana asing yang parkir di Bursa Efek Jakarta
Jakarta (BEJ) berkurang US$29 juta dalam sehari perdagangan kemarin, turun
53,9% dibandingkan periode sama tahun lalu.
Kondisi serupa juga terjadi di bursa Korea Selatan, Thailand, dan Taiwan yang
nilai investasi asingnya turun masing-masing US$247,5 juta (-386,2%), US$50
juta (-76,4%), dan US$36,3 juta (-104,4%).
Analis PT Andalan Artha Advisindo Sekuritas (AAA Securities) Bagus Hananto
menilai pemodal global kemungkinan masih menyimpan sentimen negatif terhadap
pasar Asia setelah ada lontaran kebijakan pembatasan modal Thailand.
Akibatnya, penjualan yang lebih besar dibandingkan pembelian (net selling)
oleh pemodal asing menghantam bursa yang diikuti profit taking oleh investor
domestik.
Kemarin, investor asing membukukan net selling Rp262 miliar. Indeks harga
saham gabungan (IHSG) di BEJ langsung terbanting 32,5 poin atau turun 1,79% ke
posisi 1.780,88.
"Koreksi indeks karena profit taking kemarin masih sehat, mengingat indeks
naik terlalu tinggi sejak Juni 2005 yang naik 48,7% dari 1.234 ke 1.843,"
tuturnya kemarin.
Penurunan indeks, lanjut dia, dipicu oleh sentimen global terkait prospek
perekonomian Amerika, yang diikuti investor domestik untuk membukukan gain.
Profit taking kemarin menimpa Bursa Efek Jakarta dan bursa Hong Kong sehingga
indeks harga saham keduanya menurun drastis di tengah peningkatan indeks saham
bursa lainnya.
Bagus memperkirakan pada perdagangan hari ini, investor akan melakukan
pembelian pascakoreksi (buy on weakness) sehingga membuka potensi pembalikan
arah indeks (rebound). Indeks akan bergerak di kisaran 1.770 hingga 1.815.
Menurut dia, price to earning ratio (P/E) BEJ masih menjanjikan hingga akhir
tahun nanti yang ditopang fundamental makroekonomi.
Faktor P/E BEJ yang diperkirakan tinggi tak serta-merta membuat investor
asing hengkang.
Oleh Arif Gunawan S.
Bisnis Indonesia
----- Original Message -----
From: Frederick Schubert
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Tuesday, January 09, 2007 4:53 PM
Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] rounding number 1700
well...
the fall of the main index today was mostly due to misunderstanding about
what is happening in Thailand. The Thai government limits foreign ownership to
50% in telecommunication and (agricultural) companies that are vital and
related with its nation's security. Indonesia has so far applied this policy
....and foreign funds have so far can abide by this without
complaining..(hehe). so..?
based on charting, it remains within the so-called trend in trend...the pull
back may cause a rounding of 100 points of losses..so, any fall below 1760, can
still be termed as correction. but below 1,600 is a panic selling which is more
unlikely as based on the fund flow manegement, at that level of index, funds as
big as American CALPERs would have already lost 30% of its equity
portfolio...would they be just sitting and singing for the losses..? i don't
think so...so, tomorrow will be the judgement day...if the main index manages
to rebound...then...there is nothing to worry....
hope the above helps...
best,
boyz <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
wie Sie sind, Sir?
die lange keine Zeit sehen.
any comment mr.schubert ?
is it time to collect ?
danke,
Frederick Schubert wrote: hehehehe...how about 900...?
Hotma Sirait <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: next stop will be 1700 before it's
goes down deep as mr. ian say i quess (all disclaimer is on)
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