Ada faktor lain yaitu politik dan lain lain walopun itu semua cuman dijadikan sandiwara utk get profit di market
On Tue, May 19, 2009 at 12:52 PM, simon bolenang <simon_bolen...@yahoo.com>wrote: > > > Data2 ekonomi sudah banyak yg mendukung kenaikan, yg terburuk > sudah berlalu, cahaya di ujung terowongan sudah terlihat. > Fundamental akhirnya yg mendukung kenaikan index, bukan > TA saja. > > --- On *Tue, 5/19/09, Stock Traders <stock.trad...@yahoo.de>* wrote: > > > From: Stock Traders <stock.trad...@yahoo.de> > Subject: RE: [ob] The Dow Will Hit 10,000 in 2009 > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > Date: Tuesday, May 19, 2009, 1:37 AM > > Yesss 10,000 after 4000 first though > > > > *From:* obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com [mailto:obrolan- ban...@yahoogrou > ps.com] *On Behalf Of *pemainbesar > > *Sent:* Tuesday, May 19, 2009 12:30 PM > *To:* obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com > *Subject:* [ob] The Dow Will Hit 10,000 in 2009 > > > > > > > Wall Street has been debating the huge run-up in the Dow Jones Industrial > Average. > > Was March the beginning of a huge rally that will take the market to new > highs? Have we witnessed the proverbial "dead-cat bounce?" The > prognosticators have been unsure, uncertain and uncommittal about what they > see coming next... > So let me make it clear where I stand: We are in the beginning of a new > bull market that will carry us to 10,000 on the Dow by year's-end - and new > highs within a couple of years. > > Yes, the recovery will be volatile. But now is the time to buy, despite the > big run up. > > No doubt there's plenty of bad news out there - rising unemployment with no > end in sight, threatened tax increases on capital gains and dividends, > anemic corporate profits, commercial real-estate insolvency, federal > deficits, continued threats from the Middle East and Afghanistan, the > specter of inflation and high interest rates among others... > > This list goes on and on. But as the old saying goes, "Wall Street climbs a > wall of worry." > > It's all for naught - and I encourage you to look past these sideshows and > distractions. I'm convinced the stock market is headed higher - a lot > higher. I'll share my reasoning and tell you why Jeremy Siegel feels the > same way. > > Three Reasons the Dow is Going Up > > Over the past few months, three things have been sticking out to me like > huge blinking aircraft landing signals. Here's why we're going to keep > moving up.. > > The Fed. Bernanke and the Federal Reserve are pulling out all the stops to > stimulate the economy. Since September 2008, the money supply (M2) has been > growing at an incredible 13% rate, one of the highest in the post-World War > II period. > > As Milton Friedman has demonstrated time and time again, after a lag of > between six and nine months an easy money policy will cause a sharp recovery > in the economy and stocks. Economists call it the "Friedman Effect." > > Mortgage support. The Obama administration has been working hard at bailing > out all the unstable banks, bad mortgages and bad assets in the economy > through massive deficit spending. Essentially, the government policy is > putting a floor under the residential real estate market, which will keep it > from collapsing any further. > > History sides with the bulls. Last month, I had dinner with Jeremy Siegel, > professor of economics at the Wharton School and author of the bestseller > "Stocks for the Long Run." He is a firm believer in looking at historical > trends, something that many investors and Wall Street analysts have > forgotten. And right now, the trend favors the bulls. > > Well, guess what? The lag is over, and the "Friedman Effect" is taking full > effect. We can expect higher stock prices and a recovery in the economy by > year-end. And as a result of the administration' s efforts, housing sales > are on the rise and real estate prices are stabilizing. > > It's why I'm so interested in real estate lately. Take a look at my last > column, "Real Estate: The Buy of the Century." > > Adding more fuel to my position, when I sat down with Wharton's Wizard he > showed me an interesting long-term chart of the S&P 500 Index. > > The Wizard of Wharton's Long-Term Outlook > > You'll note that every time the market hit the bottom of his long-term > chart, it rallied - sharply. And that's exactly where it was in late > February when I met with Professor Siegel - at the bottom. > > Sure enough, in early March Wall Street rallied - and it hasn't looked > back. It's now up 30% from its lows. Between you and me, he called the exact > bottom of the stock market within weeks. (Of course, so did a few of our > analysts as well.) > > How far up can it go? I asked this precise question to Professor Siegel > last month. > > He told me that he has just completed a study of how well stocks do after a > major crash like the one we just experienced (falling 50% from its highs). > His conclusion was pretty striking: After a major bear market, stocks on > average rebound 24% the first year of recovery. And just as nice, the > average annual return over the next five years is 18%. > > Since the Dow was around 8,300 at the first of the year, it could climb > back to 10,000 by year-end. (And 18,000 by 2013.) We could comfortably hit > these numbers with an additional 19% gain. > > Although many believe the "easy money" has been made - and they may be > right - the market will still offer plenty of profitable opportunities in > the coming months. It'll be volatile, but it's certainly not too late to get > aboard. > > The article above was taken from an investment community in the U.S. > enjoy... > > > >
