--- On Fri, 5/22/09, nicholas alvin <nicholas_al...@yahoo.com> wrote:
From: nicholas alvin <nicholas_al...@yahoo.com>
Subject: [saham] China coal imports +60% MoM, upgrading PxT on properties [4
Attachments]
To: "ob Obrolan bandar" <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com>, "Nicholas Alvin"
<sa...@yahoogroups.com>
Date: Friday, May 22, 2009, 12:32 PM
[Attachment(s) from nicholas alvin included below]
Thermal
coal: China
imports 60% more coal in April vs. March
Two new developments in the thermal coal space this
week (report attached):
(1) China
trade data this week supports demand strength, confirming 9.2mt of imports
(including coking and thermal coal), up 3.4mt (60%) from March and 5.7mt (168%)
YoY.
(2) McCloskey
European Coal Outlook Conference – Macq commodities team came out of the
conference less bearish on prices from here, at least in the Pacific.
On China,
the most bullish assessment came from Philip Gasteen, head of marketing and
logistics at Asian coal and electricity producer Banpu. He suggested that
around 55mt of thermal coal is due to be delivered into China this year under
recently
completed deals. This would drive imports 20−25mt higher, while export volumes
are likely to fall 15−20mt. Thus, he
sees China’s
net imports increasing by 40mt this year.
My take –
closer to home, many Asian coal analysts & corporates will attend the
CoalTrans conference in Bali during the first
week of June. We shall see whether they will come back with the same positive
take-aways on China/India coal demand.
Indo
property: upgrading price targets
[Reports attached] Macq research coverage of Indo
property sector remains on the transition phase, since our previous analyst
Lydia Toisuta left the firm on Nov 2008. In the meantime, ahead of Macquarie
Asean conference in June (Bakrieland & Lippo Karawaci have confirmed
attendance), Elaine Cheong (Macq property analyst based in Singapore) re-affirms
our positive sector view today by lifting price targets on Bakrieland from
Rp100 to Rp330 (22% upside), Ciputra Dev from Rp320 to Rp650 (18% upside), and
Lippo Karawaci from Rp250 to Rp530 (35% downside).
Essentially, she has reduced the NAV discounts implied by those price
targets, without changing the NAV estimates by much. She applies a 35%
NAV discount for Bakrieland (NAV estimate of Rp519), 35% NAV discount for
Ciputra Dev (NAV estimate of Rp1,001), and 35% NAV discount for Lippo Karawaci
(NAV estimate of Rp816). She re-iterates Outperform rating on Ciputra Dev &
Bakrieland, Underperform rating on Lippo Karawaci.
Her key arguments for the narrower NAV discounts:
1. Resilient
domestic demand in Indonesia
2. Lowering
of interest rates
PGAS:
smoothing out ways for gas price hike
(Adam Worthington)
Yesterday, PGAS met with government officials and industry
players to discuss the future of the gas market. Upside risk to gas prices post
presidential election, re-iterate Outperform. Three key points:
1. Supply shortage: The domestic gas
market is in a supply shortage, and further exploration and development is
required at the upstream level.
2. US$ pricing appropriate: Industry
participants agreed that US$ pricing is appropriate given that capex, financing
cost of gas production, and transmission and distribution costs are US$
denominated.
3. Gas is undervalued vs its closest substitute:
Participants noted that the selling price of gas has not been raised since July
2007 despite the surge in other commodities, and that at the current exchange
rate, the selling price of PGAS 's natural gas is approximately Rp2,038 per
diesel equivalent litre, a competitive price when compared with other
sources of energy. The participants discussed the potential for gas price
increases (in the upstream and downstream) to encourage exploration and
development of reserves.
Snippets:
Macro – VP candidate
Boediono will focus on integrating fiscal, monetary, and sectoral policies, if
he got elected.
Medco – BPMigas
head Mr.Priyono confirms that Medco will get a 20-year extension for its block
A project, located in North Aceh, when the
term expires in 2011. Block A is a high priority project for the government,
since
the block will supply to PT Pupuk Iskandar Muda and to PT PLN (85 trillion BTU
in 2010-2027). The other partners in block A are Premier Oil (42% stake) and
Japan Petroleum Exploration (16%).
Crude Palm Oil
– The government may impose 3% tax on palm oil exports, according to the
Jakarta Post.
PT Telkom –
will cancel its plan to acquire a stake in the Telecommunciations Company of
Iran, according to Tempo and Bisnis Indonesia.
The cancellation is due to the requirement by the Iranian government that the
bidders be free of American shareholders. PT Telkom has ADRs listed on the New
York Stock Exchange.
PT Timah – will
pay a dividend of Rp133/sh or equivalent to a 50% payout ratio. The company is
budgeting Rp350bn for capex.
PT Unilever Indonesia –
will pay a final dividend of Rp220/sh. The total dividend is Rp315/sh or
equivalent to a 100% payout ratio.The company is budgeting Rp700bn for capex.
PT Jaya Ancol –
is exploring a Rp250bn rights issue, according to Bisnis Indonesia. The company
will pay a
dividend of Rp37/sh.
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