kaya nya sentimen bagi2 deviden dan laporan kinerja emiten yang melebihi ekspektasi hampir semua nya sudah keluar...then what else ??
kalau koreksi harus nya emang ada biar pondasi nya kuat...:D ( Udah cuci gudang nih gw,tapi ni pasar kg turun2 ..hiks..hiks ),akhir nya malah masuk lagi dah di atas 2050..mo kemana lagi kagak tau juga... iseng2 browsing nemu beberapa artikel bagus juga nih...sapa tau ada yang butuh reasoning juga seperti gw http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/cda/doc/content/dtt_dr_apeconoutlook_0609.pdf http://www.allianz.com/en/press/news/studies/news_2009-06-03.html http://www.group-economics.allianz.com/images_englisch/pdf_downloads/working_papers/asien_englisch.pdf http://asianbondsonline.adb.org/documents/abm_summer_2009.pdf btw klo gw sih sampai sekarang masih bingung dan ragu apa mau di 2172 kan dulu baru dihantem kebawah trs jadi bikin base di 1965-2000 atau mo di buat pull back kan dulu deket2 ini ( iseng liat chart weekly keliatan IHSG mulai keliatan klo ni indeks mulai main diatas ma 100 minggu nya soal nya ),kalau cerita pulback dulu yang kejadian berarti 1759 harus nya mulai nyicil masuk dunks...( coba cek chart mingguan nya !! ) asli bingung juga sih .... nah klo dari rgemonitor gw sih lagi demen nge highlightin ini sih...gak tau nih ada guna nya apa kagak..hehe :p Indonesian Exports: Commodity Prices Will Determine Trade Dynamics Ahead a.. Exports fell 22.6% y/y to US$ 8.46 billion in April 2009 after falling 28.9%y/y in March and 32.9% y/y in February 2009. On month-on-Month basis, exports decreased by 1.81% m/m in April after increasing by 20.6% in March 2009. Double-digit export contraction since November 2008 has been led by correction in oil and commodity prices (palm oil, rubber) and lower demand in U.S. and Asian EMs a.. a.. Outlook for Exports: The pace of export contraction has been easing since early 2009 and even on a month-to-month basis. Strengthening commodity prices might be a plus for exports in the coming months. But exports will continue to contract through most of 2009 in spite of these upsides. Central bank says no to Rupiah devaluation to support exports. Central Bank estimates a 25-28% fall in exports in 2009 a.. In 2009, government expects that exports will shrink between 5% to 7% while imports will decline between 7% to 9.6%. Central bank estimates that exports will decline by 15.4% and 14.5% while imports will contract between 16.8% to 16.5% in 2009 a.. Imports fell in April 2009 by 39.42%y/y to US$ 25.48billion after plunging 36.5% y/y in March and 33.4% in February 2009. On month-on-month basis, import decreased by 2.58% m/m after showing positive growth of 9.9% in March 2009. Non-oil and gas imports from January to April 2009 dropped by 32.86% y/y led by decline of consumer goods (-34.27%) and capital goods (-8.68%). Oil and gas imports from January to April 2009 plummeted by 56.23% y/y due to declining imports of raw/complementary materials of 44.42%. Raw materials and capital goods account for 93% of Indonesia's total import bill. Slowing exports and industrial activity are reducing import demand but strengthening oil prices are a risk for imports a.. Trade surplus was at US$ 2.1billion in April 2009 after touching surplus of US$ 3.27billion in March. Between January to April 2009, trade surplus reached to US$ 6billion. This has been led by sharper decline of imports than that of exports. Contraction in import demand (for industries for re-export and slowing consumer demand) will contain risks to trade balance but strengthening oil prices are a risk. Trade openness is around 44% of GDP a.. External Balance: In Q1 2009, Current account turned to surplus of US$ 1.8 billion after showing deficit US$ 0.7 billion in Q4 2008 due to increasing surplus in non-oil and gas trade balance and declined deficit in the oil trade balance (slowing economic growth and ongoing replacement of oil-based fuel with gas and coal decreased oil imports) and services account (dropping imports reduced spending on shipment services). But govt. expects current account might post a deficit of 0.5% of GDP in 2009 due to deteriorating exports by 28% in 2009. current account deficit would provide negative impacts on BOP and put more pressure on currency and forex reserves a.. The decline in exports moderated in April compared to March 2009 due to better than expected non-oil exports. Plunge in total imports may be a reflection of sluggish domestic demand conditions. In 2009, Indonesia is expected to record small current account surplus given sharper fall of imports via-a-via exports (Citigroup) a.. Exports will continue to contract sharply in the rest of 2009 owing to lower external demand and weaker prices for most of the commodities. This will lead firms in the export sector to cut back on investment and lay off workers. However, lower global oil prices, together with a contraction in domestic investment, will suppress the import bill. SO the trade surplus will remain stable in 2009 (EIU) a.. Trade balance in 2009 would be in surplus due to faster decline of imports than exports. dari orang yang sempet ciut nyali and ilang biji ama kelakuan IHSG... "tapi ampe sekarang juga masih sih..huehehe" good luck : ) ----- Original Message ----- From: Aria Bela Nusa To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Sent: Saturday, June 06, 2009 7:56 AM Subject: RE: [ob] IHSG bakal ke 1600/1630??? Hmmmm.... What do u think?? Otherwise - taking it in your mind it's only mild correction happenings - nothing else in regard to this on-going situation ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of juniortrader...@yahoo.com Sent: Friday, June 05, 2009 8:39 PM To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [ob] IHSG bakal ke 1600/1630??? Hmmmm.... What do u think?? Menurut saya, mgk bakal lama bgt ke 1600, karena BD tau, kl kita semua menunggu Bearish dan menguji kesabaran kita. Coba anda bayangkan, apakah anda tidak "gatal" untuk membeli apabila IHSG bullish?? Saya rasa, Iya. Coba bayangkan saja. 3 bulan lalu portfolio saya (mis 10 jt), saat ini sudah 20 jt lebih (tanpa transaksi).. Sangat mudah balik modal khan. Kl turun 1600 lg n then bullish again.. Bayangkan berapa nilai portfolio anda.. Apakah BD sebodoh itu membiarkan kita mencari uang semudah itu ?? I don't think so. BD is a smart people (bayangkan saja seperti BD bola).. BD pasti punya strategi lain.. (Jgn terlalu berharap banyak kejadian beberapa bln ini terjadi lagi). Easy money?? No..! That's my opinion.. Kl ada masukan, silahkan saja :) Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone from Sinyal Bagus XL, Nyambung Teruuusss...! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ From: "FromBuitenzorg" Date: Fri, 05 Jun 2009 13:48:30 -0000 To: <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com> Subject: Re: [ob] MASIH PERCAYA IHSG bakal ke 1600/1630 ...... ?? Koreksi sangat PASTI Boss, kalo indeks 2100, koreksi bisa antara 1850-2000-an, ...kalo indeks 2200, maka koreksi bisa antara 1900-2100-an... Ane yakin si El udah upgrade targetnya... seperti yg dia sering sampaikan. Tapi kalo ngeyel bertahan tetep 1600/1630 udah pasti gak valid lagi... yang paling valid perubahan itu sendiri yg tetep abadi,ekonomi global juga tidak abadi....,, Kita buktikan sampe akhir Juni sesuai target 1600-an yg percaya :) Tapi ane gak mau ganti nama jadi I don't believe in ... hehehe.. Keep this posting... Regards Win <edwin...@...> wrote: > > koreksi pasti pak, pertanyaannya kapan. > > 2009/6/5 FromBuitenzorg <frombuitenz...@...> > > > > > > > IHSG UDAH 2000-an +++, .. jadi SEBAIKNYA jangan pernah berharap balik ke > > 1600-an. Si EL udah berkali kali via OB gw minta update targetnya :) > > > > TAPI kalo nanti KOREKSI, realistiknya ntar bisa saja koreksi ke > > 1800-1950-an. OK doa kita bersamaNYA. Sibuk amat deh... > > > > Rgrds > > > > > > >
