Right, Pak - utk ANTM growthnya (i.e.profit + prod) + bottom-line (net profit) masih Oke punya utk ke depannya...
:) Kalo utk INCO - mungkin harus split dulu, ya... Regards, Aria > Tambahan utk ANTM, Sales dari produksinya, 75% ferronickel, yg 25% dari > emas, nickel consentrate, bauxite. > Kasarnya Jadi kalo dapet 8000 kita bisa seakan2 top up 30% lagi. > > EKA SUWANDANA <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Kalo ANTM 23000 MT Ferronickel, boleh tuh! 21000 terlalu konservatif. Ia > itu kalo dapet 8000 dari Nickel doank! Belum dari yg lain!!! > > Jimmy Gunawan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: wah, Pak Eka... > kayaknya maksud dia memang utk ANTM kok... > > JG > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: EKA SUWANDANA > To: saham@yahoogroups.com > Sent: Monday, February 05, 2007 4:17 PM > Subject: Re: INCO more prefer than ANTM......Re: Balasan: [saham] Re: Buy > ANTM target Rp 14000,- > > > Ngaco loh! Masa produksi INCO cuma 21000 MT!!!! Coba download lagi ke > www.jsx.co.id ! > > ANTM yg segitu! > > Investor Bonex wrote: > Mumpung ada joganya FA nich, jadi sekalian kursus :-). > Berikut adalah hitung2an saya yg sederhana, dg asumsi nickel di 35K/MT, > Produksi=21K/yr dan PER8x, ketemu fair valuenya di sekitar 8,100-an. Dg > asumsi yg sama buat INCO akan ketemu di sekitar 45,000an. > > Comment, pls... > > #Shares 1,907,691,950 > PER8x > NP30% > Target Prod 21,000 MT > > Nickel Price 35,000 USD/MT > > Sales 735,000,000 > Net Profit 220,500,000 > EPS 0.12 > Target Price 8,322.10 > Upside1% > > > > EKA SUWANDANA wrote: > ANTM target minimum 12000 , kemungkinan bisa maximum (subject to nickel > price dont breach below 30000USD/MT ) 15000-an. Apalagi press release 2006 > terakhir produksi emas melonjak jadi 2,8 Ton, dari 2,2 Ton. > > Kalo INCO menang di efisiensi dia pembangkit listrik pakai generator PLTA, > so cost produksi matte hampir separuhnya ferronickel ANTM. Target minimum > 47000, kalo nickel bertahan diatas 30000$/MT bisa 70000. > > Cek terus nickel di www.lme.co.uk/nickel.asp > > > > > redyherinantoalb wrote: > Bagaimana dengan potensi growth nya diantara keduanya pak? Antm ada > kenaikan produksi 2Xlipat dengan FENI 3 nya... apakah FENI3 udah > tercermin di harga sekarang? Apa ada potensi growth volume untuk > INCO? > > Redy > > --- In saham@yahoogroups.com, Investor Bonex > wrote: >> >> In my view, INCO lebih prefer di bandingkan dg ANTM. Untuk saat > ini, ANTM sdh sesuai dg value utk Y2007 (dg asumsi avrg nickel di > sekitar 35-36 K/MT). INCO masih ada potential upside up to 30%. >> >> any comment ? >> >> >> >> timah bangkabelitung wrote: >> ANTM adalahan growth stocks, yang setiap tahun > bertumbuh sales maupun profitnya, bahkan tumbuh luar biasa. Dengan > P/E yang masih >> rendah ( PER 07F 5 ) saya rasa ANTM boleh di collect. Untuk > yang >> pegang posisi TINS sebaiknya profit taking dulu karena sudah > mendekati target 07F fundamentalnya ( resikonya lebih besar dari > pada untungnya, apalagi nanti mendadak harga timah jatuh seperti > nikel >> yang membuat INCO turun ) switching ke ANTM yang lebih aman. >> Up side masih 80 %, investasi yang aman, tidur bisa pulas ngak > cepat >> sakit jantung nanti uang kita berbunga 80% setahun. Teman saya > ada >> yang masih pegang ANTM di harga Rp 1250 semuanya ANTM tidak ada > saham yang lain dan sampai sekarang belum jual ,untuk hari tua dan > untuk anak,katanya tahun ini untungnya bisa double, coba hitung > untungnya berapa persen pertahun ( beli maret 2004 ). >> >> Thanks >> >> >> redyherinantoalb wrote: >> Nah itu dia yang saya maksud.... masa harga Besi Lebih mahal > dari >> Nickel.... tapi kalo dilihat nama pabriknya "FENI" harusnya emang >> Ferro Nickel.... so kenaikan harga nickel seharusnya tidak memberi >> pengaruh yang besar ke Antm, karena dia hanya 20% kandungan nickel >> nya, lain cerita dengan INCO yang 80%..... so, sell antm buy > INCO??? >> >> Redy >> --- In saham@yahoogroups.com, "Ryan Ariadi Suwarno" wrote: >> > >> > saya pernah ngobrol dengan Bp. Eko Endriawan, beliaw kerja di PT >> Antam di bag investor relations. >> > kandungan nickel dalam ferronickel adalah sekitar 20%, sisanya > 80% >> adalah besi >> > >> > jadi yang dimaksud dengan nickel dalam sales > volume "ferronickel" >> ANTM adalah langsung nickel content-nya. jadi untuk perhitungan >> harga jual ekspornya bisa langsung menggunakan harga > internasional. >> rada-rada tricky memang.... jadi orang banyak yg salah persepsi >> > >> > beda dengan "nickel in matte"nya INCO yang memiliki kandngan >> nickel kurang lebih 80% dalam nickel in matte. otomatis kalo itung >> harga "nickel in matte" milik INCO dalam lapkeu = 80% x harga >> nickel LME. >> > >> > saya cc email ini juga kepada Bp Eko Endriawan, semoga membantu.. >> > >> > ----- Original Message ----- >> > From: redyherinantoalb >> > To: saham@yahoogroups.com >> > Sent: Wednesday, January 31, 2007 1:15 PM >> > Subject: [saham] Re: Buy ANTM target Rp 14000,- >> > >> > >> > Ada sedikit pertanyaan pak Eka... output Antm itu berupa Ferro >> > Nickel atau Nickel Matte? Setahu saya kalo Ferro Nickel kadar >> nickel >> > nya rendah lho... jadi Antm beli Nockel Matte dari INCO untuk >> > diturunkan kadarnya menjadi Ferro Nickel? Mohon informasinya, >> saya >> > betul2 bingung masalah ini... >> > Thank you, >> > Redy >> > --- In saham@yahoogroups.com, EKA SUWANDANA wrote: >> > > >> > > Biasa, kalo udah hilang barang begitu!!! Kalo nggak target >> harga >> > diturunin, harga nickel ditakut2in turun. Awal Tahun 2006 lalu >> > ketika harga nickel jatuh dari 8$/lb ke 6$/lb, semua sekuritas >> dalam >> > risetnya pake rata2 5$/lb atau 4$/lb, ehh malah naik terus. >> Nickel >> > price, only God knows where to go? >> > > >> > > By the way, Rp14000 target mah sangat possible asal Nickel >> nggak >> > turun dibawah 30000$/MT. Ibu Daisy risetnya di ML sekarang >> ikut2an >> > setuju bakal 15000-16000. Ah saya sih 11000-12000 udah seneng >> tuh! >> > > >> > > Saya yakin sekarang para MI sudah dapet bocoran laporan 2006 >> > yg 'bocor' semenjak 2 hari lalu. profit Rp 1.5T? EPS? Asumsi >> 2007 >> > kalo gini sih bisa 2,6T??? Common guys kenapa hari ini turun???? >> > > >> > > >> > > James Arifin wrote: >> > > so strange, even Ferry Wong recommend "HOLD" while he forecast >> > the stock price will drop to 7500 in 12 months period. >> STRANGE ... >> > STRANGE >> > > >> > > On 1/25/07, nicholas alvin >> > wrote: >> > > Antam's Nickel Output May Rise to 22,000 Tons in 2007 >> (Update2) >> > > By Claire Leow and Leony Aurora >> > > Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) --PT Aneka Tambang, Indonesia's second- >> > largest nickel miner, said it may increase output of the metal >> by as >> > much as 52 percent this year as with a new smelter contributing >> full- >> > year production. >> > > Antam, as the company is known, may produce between 20,000 >> > metric tons and 22,000 tons, a record, compared with estimated >> > output of 14,474 tons in 2006, it said today in a statement. >> > > The miner, which is 65 percent state-owned, is boosting >> > production to take advantage of surging demand and record >> prices. >> > Nickel stockpiles tracked by the London Metal Exchange plunged >> 81 >> > percent last year, and a further 25 percent this year as more of >> the >> > metal was used in buildings, bridges and ships. >> > > ``I am not sure about their production run,'' said Ferry Wong, >> > an analyst with BNP Paribas Peregrine, who expects 21,000 tons >> this >> > year at best. ``They missed the target last year.'' >> > > Antam shares, which have gained 71 percent in the past six >> > months, were unchanged at 8,050 rupiah at 11:42 a.m. Jakarta >> time. >> > Wong recommends investors hold the stock, which he forecasts >> will >> > drop to 7,500 rupiah in 12 months. >> > > On Jan. 22, Jakarta-based Antam said it was aiming for output >> of >> > as much as 22,000 tons in 2008, when the new smelter would be >> > running at full capacity. >> > > Reduced Capacity >> > > The company didn't give a 2007 output forecast in that >> > statement, saying the smelter in question has been running at 36 >> > megawatts since mid-November, compared with a full load of 42 >> > megawatts. Antam also plans to overhaul its oldest smelter this >> > year, which will disrupt production for at least six weeks. >> > > Three-month nickel futures on the London Metal Exchange have >> > more than doubled in the past year, touching a record yesterday >> of >> > $38,502 a metric ton, before settling at $37,450. >> > > ``I prefer PT Inco as a pure nickel play,'' Wong said, >> referring >> > to PT International Nickel Indonesia, the country's largest >> nickel >> > maker and a unit of Rio de Janeiro-based Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, >> the >> > world's second-largest mining company. PT Inco makes only >> nickel, >> > while Antam also makes gold and bauxite. >> > > International Nickel Indonesia shares have gained 76 percent >> to >> > 35,100 rupiah in six months, and Wong has a 12-month stock >> target of >> > 38,000 rupiah. >> > > Unscheduled Shutdown >> > > Antam's new smelter, its third, started operating last May. >> > Still, the facility experienced a leak in July, forcing an >> > unscheduled shutdown, and it is now running at 85 percent of >> > capacity. The leak forced the company to cut its initial 2006 >> > production forecast of 20,000 tons several times. >> > > In the fourth quarter to Dec. 31, Antam's nickel output rose >> 36 >> > percent to 4,551 tons, lifting production for the full year by >> 97 >> > percent to 14,474 tons, today's statement said. >> > > The higher prices and production helped Antam more than double >> > its sales in the fourth quarter to 2.17 trillion rupiah ($239 >> > million) compared with 1.06 trillion rupiah a year earlier. Full- >> > year sales rose 69 percent to 5.57 trillion rupiah. >> > > Today's statement didn't give profit figures or forecasts. >> > > Antam sold 3,673 tons of nickel in the fourth quarter, >> fetching >> > an average price of $14.24 a pound, more than double the $5.82 a >> > pound in the same period a year earlier. >> > > Costs rose 13 percent to $4.40 a pound in 2006, the company >> > added. >> > > In the fourth quarter, Antam's gold output rose 29 percent to >> > 719 kilograms. It produced 2,873 kilograms of gold for the full >> > year, beating its target of 2,591 kilograms. Production of >> silver, a >> > by-product of gold, dropped 3 percent to 23,876 kilograms for >> the >> > full year. >> > > Also in the fourth quarter, the company produced 393,158 wet >> > metric tons of bauxite, 9 percent higher on year. >> > > The miner is accelerating spending on exploration to keep up >> > with demand, spending 36 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter >> > compared with 19 billion in the year-earlier period. >> > > To contact the reporters on this story: Claire Leow in Jakarta >> > at cleow@ ; Leony Aurora in Jakarta at laurora@ >> > > Last Updated: January 25, 2007 00:05 EST >> > > >> > > --------------------------------- >> > > It's here! Your new message! >> > > Get new email alerts with the free Yahoo! Toolbar. >> > > >> > >> >> >> >> >> >> --------------------------------- >> Kunjungi halaman depan Yahoo! Indonesia yang baru! >> >> >> >> >> --------------------------------- >> Bored stiff? Loosen up... >> Download and play hundreds of games for free on Yahoo! Games. >> > > > > > DILARANG KERAS MEMOSTING OPINI PRIBADI TENTANG POLITIK DI MILIS INI. > Silahkan lakukan itu di milis [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > [EMAIL PROTECTED] untuk unsubscribe dari milis saham > [EMAIL PROTECTED] untuk subscribe ke milis saham > > Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > > > > > > > Check out the all-new Yahoo! Mail beta - Fire up a more powerful email and > get things done faster. > > > > > > > DILARANG KERAS MEMOSTING OPINI PRIBADI TENTANG POLITIK DI MILIS INI. > Silahkan lakukan itu di milis [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > [EMAIL PROTECTED] untuk unsubscribe dari milis saham > [EMAIL PROTECTED] untuk subscribe ke milis saham > > Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > >
