TP Rp. 4.000 di discount Rp. 500 = target real.nya jangan2 Rp.3.500 :p
From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of rusli gustanto Sent: Wed, 29 Jul 2009 15:18 PM To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] ML: BUY BUMI, TP 4000 kayaknya belum lama ini TP DS 500 :P On Wed, Jul 29, 2009 at 3:16 PM, CUMI.JK (Buy, TP 5000) <cumie...@gmail.com> wrote: Ini kata neng Daisy Suryo loh Q: Cumi-cumi mempunyai delapan kaki atau delapan tangan? BUMI: Upgraded to Buy PO Rp4,000 Daisy Suryo upgraded BUMI to Buy as she believes the twin woes of REPO and MTN issuance are now behind the company, and we can now focus on BUMI's core business which should benefit from stronger thermal coal px into 4Q. We remain confident of our US$80/t coal px forecast for JFY10-11. Our concern with BUMI are still present given the Bakrie group's aggressive bizz strategy and potentially huge development capex but we feel it is likely that BUMI will bring in strategic investors to share the load. Concern on corp. governance will still linger in my view, but for now the potential for forced sales, asset pledges, asset injections etc becomes less likely. So perhaps this is also a good time to remind that BUMI is a good coal sector proxy given its: 1) dominance as the world's 2nd-largest seaborne coal exporter, 2) largest coal stock and most liquid stock in Indo, 3) superior logistics & infrastructure, 4) robust growth profile combined w/ long reserve life. BUMI now trades on 9.5x '10 PE and at 18% disc to our NPV. This implies coal px of US$72/t, or 8% shy of current spot px, but Daisy points out that during up-cycles and recovery periods, valuation tend to overshoot their mean by 1-2 std deviations. She sets her PO at Rp4,000 implying 17x '10 PE, which is still a 30% disc to the previous upcycle.
