Saya coba jawab. Hari Jumat ini ada pengumuman government unemployment report untuk bulan Juli. Angkanya, menurut estimate, masih tinggi. Sepanjang unemployment masih tinggi, recovery itu cuma "fake". Perusahaan masih belum mau hire orang, malah di bulan Juli masih berkelanjutan layoff. Kalau tidak salah, sebagian besar labour di USA bergerak di bidang services, dan itu menggerakkan 80% dari economic output. Jika sector ini masih hit by crisis, maka demand (spending) tidak akan naik dan ujung2nya recovery akan stall.
Menurut pandangan saya, yg harus dicermati pergerakan USD/Yen lebih dibanding USD/EUR. Yen akan menguat jika ada risk aversion. Sedangkan EUR lebih ke persepsi komoditi price. On Wed, Aug 5, 2009 at 11:32 PM, fifi young <fifiyoun...@gmail.com> wrote: > > > Conclusion-nya jadi apa ya Yuta? > Please advice, thanks. > > > On Wed, Aug 5, 2009 at 11:29 PM, YUTA <yuta.tizi...@gmail.com> wrote: > >> >> >> **This Friday looks like an important day.....** >> >> Dollar rises vs euro on renewed risk aversion >> >> 11:29 AM EDT >> >> By Vivianne Rodrigues >> >> NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar rose against the euro on Wednesday as >> reports showing greater-than-expected U.S. service sector contraction in >> July and surprisingly high job cuts by private employers boosted demand for >> the greenback as a safe-haven. >> >> The advance contrasts with the dollar's sharp drop earlier in the week as >> upbeat U.S. and Chinese manufacturing data gave investors confidence to buy >> foreign currencies and riskier assets such as stocks. >> >> However, Wednesday's lackluster reports signaled more uneasy times for the >> broader U.S. economy and renewed risk aversion, traders said. >> >> Increased risk aversion tends to favor currencies such as the yen, a >> favored safe-haven, and the dollar versus higher-yielding counterparts. >> >> "We're getting a mixed picture in this latest batch of data," said Joe >> Trevisani, a chief market analyst, at FX Solutions, in Ridgewood, New >> Jersey. "That's why we have seen the euro come off against the dollar." >> >> In mid-morning trading in New York, the euro was 0.2 down percent at >> $1.4371 after trading as high as $1.4437 earlier. The European currency hit >> $1.4445 on Monday, its highest since December. >> >> The dollar was 0.3 percent lower versus the yen at 94.93 yen. >> >> The Institute for Supply Management said its non-manufacturing index fell >> to 46.4 in July from June's 47.0. A reading above 50 signals expansion. >> Economists expected a reading of 48.0. >> >> The ISM non-manufacturing report was much weaker than expected, >> contributing to a "risk-off kind of scenario" in the foreign exchange >> markets, favoring the dollar, said Andrew Busch, a global FX strategist at >> BMO Capital Markets in Chicago. >> >> Another report showed new orders received by U.S. factories rose >> unexpectedly in June, advancing for a third straight month [ID:nN04135411]. >> >> The services sector and new orders figures followed reports showing >> larger-than-expected cuts by U.S. private employers in July and an increase >> in planned layoffs at U.S. firms. >> >> The labor markets data "weighed on risk appetite and consequently revived >> some demand for safe-haven currencies," said Joe Manimbo, a currency trader >> at Travelex Global Business Payments in Washington. >> >> Another gauge on the state of the U.S. labor markets is expected on Friday >> with the government's release of its monthly non-farm payrolls data. >> >> Wednesday's ADP report "suggests that we could see a downside surprise to >> Friday's broader employment data," said Manimbo. >> >> Investors' focus will also be on policy decisions by the Bank of England >> and European Central Bank due on Thursday. >> >> (Additional reporting by Wanfeng Zhou and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss in New >> York; Editing by Dan Grebler) >> > > > > >
