good for CPO producer? Kira2 berapa % CPO dunia dipakai untuk biodiesel ya?
>From: "Bettina Tan" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >Reply-To: [email protected] >To: [email protected], [EMAIL PROTECTED] >Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Biodiesel: Minim incentive realization, >reduce investor interest >Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2007 20:03:51 +0700 > >*=DJ UPDATE:CPO Seen Rising Above MYR2,000/Ton; Bad For Biodiesel* > > > >By Benjamin Low > >Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES > >KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Crude palm oil are set to move well above the >MYR2,000 metric ton psychological price barrier in 2007 as the supply of >global oilseeds struggles to keep pace with rising demand, analysts said >Wednesday. > >Rising palm oil prices, however, could spell more trouble for biodiesel >manufacturers, already badly hurt by shrinking margins, they said on the >final day of the annual palm oil price outlook conference. > >Dorab Mistry, the palm oil market's most closely-followed price forecaster, >said CPO futures may test MYR2,200 by July and rise further by the last >quarter of 2007, to the MYR2,200-MYR2,400 range. > >"I still believe we are in the midst of a rousing bull market whose >termination is nowhere in sight," said Mistry, director of U.K.-based >Godrej >International Ltd. > >Demand may grow by 6 million tons, far outpacing anticipated supply growth >of 4 million tons in the April to March 2008 period, he estimated. > >"Prices will clearly have to rise to ration demand," he said. > >Another influential analyst, Thomas Mielke, editor of industry publication >Oilworld, forecast CPO prices of MYR1,850-MYR2,050 in the first half of the >year and rising to MYR2,000-MYR2,250 in the second half. > >Mielke said oils and fats consumption may grow by 8.0 million tons or more >in the October 2006 to September 2007 period, trimming stocks by 1.5 >million >tons by the end of September. > >The analysts' upbeat projections continues the bullish tone set by other >industry participants on the opening day of the conference. > >Tuesday, James Fry, managing director of U.K.-based consultancy LMC >International Ltd, forecast CPO futures in the MYR2,000-MYR2,200 range for >the rest of the year. > >Sabri Ahmad, group chief executive of Malaysia's Golden Hope Plantations >Bhd, forecast prices of as high as MYR2,200 in the first half and MYR2,400 >in the second half. > >Switch To Corn To Fuel Oilseeds Rally > >Except for a spike that lasted less than a week in December, the benchmark >CPO contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivative has failed to sustain above >MYR2,000 for a prolonged period since 1998-1999. The contract settled at >MYR1,977/ton Tuesday and is trading around MYR1,950/ton now. > >But that spell is likely to come to an end in the coming months, partly >because palm oil production growth may weaken as the adverse effects of >2006's dry weather conditions on yields begin to be felt. > >More importantly, the production of palm oil's main competitor, soyoil, is >also expected to slow as soybean farmers switch to the more lucrative >grains >such as corn which have seen sharp price increases over the last year. > >"This (switch) is the most important bullish factor for palm oil," said >Oilworld's Mielke said. > >Corn prices have soared to 10-year highs in recent months amid growing >consumption of the commodity for ethanol production. > >The lure of planting corn could result in about 3 to 4 million hectares of >land currently planted with oilseeds being lost in the 2007/08 season, >Mielke said, adding the resulting global oilseed supply deficit would swell >to over 8 million tons. > >Soyoil prices could potentially rise to $650-$700/ton on a South America >free on board basis this year, with rival palm oil following close behind, >Godrej's Mistry said. > >Tough Times For Biodiesel Producers > >Yet, while one form of biofuel, ethanol, is thriving, another may be set >for >tough times ahead. > >Corn prices, currently at $4/bushel, could rise another 20% to 25% and >still >not curb ethanol production, which would remain profitable at those level, >Mielke said. > >The biodiesel industry, however, may not be able to cope with a similar >rise >in oilseeds and edible oil prices. > >"Ethanol producers are still making money, but biodiesel producers are >currently suffering," Mielke said. > >Chris de Lavigne, a director at consultancy Frost & Sullivan, said the buzz >about biodiesel in recent years has been overdone as the business isn't as >profitable as hyped. > >At the current palm oil price of around $550/ton, profit margins for a >biodiesel producer in Southeast Asia would only be about $30-$50/ton, he >said. > >Continued gains in edible oil prices on the back of a corn rally would >further erode the already narrow margins. > >Thus, while CPO may reach highs of MYR2,300-MYR2,400 in 2007, it may not >stay at those levels for long. > >Biodiesel production "will be less than anticipated and therefore, we will >see some correction in the market and prices coming back down to the >MYR2,000 to MYR2,200 range," de Lavigne said, without specifying a >timeframe >for that correction. > >-By Benjamin Low; Dow Jones Newswires; 603 2692 5254; >[EMAIL PROTECTED] > >-Edited by Denny Kurien > >(END) Dow Jones Newswires > >March 14, 2007 05:05 ET (09:05 GMT) > >On 3/13/07, Bettina Tan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >> >> _________________________________________________________________ FREE pop-up blocking with the new MSN Toolbar - get it now! http://toolbar.msn.click-url.com/go/onm00200415ave/direct/01/
