Expand, tapi miss estimate.
Diperkirakan Expand 3,9 tapi ternyata cuma 3,7 ...
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-----Original Message-----
From: Peter Alimin <milis...@live.com>
Date: Mon, 17 Aug 2009 10:09:01
To: OB<obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [ob] Japan Economy Expands 3.7%, Emerges From Recession (Update3)
Japan Economy Expands 3.7%, Emerges From Recession (Update3)
Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s economy grew for the first
time in five quarters as a revival in exports and consumer
spending helped the country climb out of its worst postwar
recession. Stocks fell on concern the recovery won’t last.
Gross domestic product expanded at an annual 3.7 percent
pace in the three months ended June 30, following an 11.7
percent decline in the previous quarter, the Cabinet Office
said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 22 analysts
surveyed by Bloomberg News was for 3.9 percent growth.
The yen gained and the Nikkei 225 Stock Average retreated
as much as 2.4 percent on concern growth will falter once
governments worldwide complete $2 trillion in stimulus spending.
The winner of an Aug. 30 election will have to grapple with
unemployment that’s approaching a record high as companies
including Nikon Corp. and NEC Electronics Corp. cut costs.
“Growth was supported by stimulus packages and exports
but it’s hard to believe they’ll both keep lifting the economy
at this pace,” said Takahide Kiuchi, chief economist at Nomura
Securities Co. in Tokyo. “We’re over the worst but Japan is in
no condition to achieve a sustainable recovery.”
The yen rose to 94.54 per dollar at 11 a.m. in Tokyo from
94.76 before the report as investors withdrew from riskier
assets. The Nikkei slid 2.2 percent, paring its advance to 48
percent since it touched a 26-year low on March 10. The yield
on Japan’s 10-year bond fell two basis points to 1.355 percent.
From the previous quarter, the world’s second-largest
economy grew 0.9 percent.
Led by Exports
Exports led the expansion, jumping 6.3 percent from the
previous three months. Net exports, or overseas shipments minus
imports, contributed 1.6 percentage points to quarter-on-
quarter growth.
The resurgence in demand from abroad wasn’t enough to
convince companies to spend more on plant and equipment.
Business investment, which makes up about 15 percent of the
economy, fell 4.3 percent last quarter, today’s report showed.
Nikon this month forecast a record 28 billion yen ($300
million) annual loss as customers scale back orders for
semiconductor equipment. In May, the Tokyo-based company said
it would cut 1,000 jobs to weather the global slump.
NEC Electronics last month predicted its fifth straight
year of losses as declining sales of chips outpace cost savings
on production, research and labor. The company said in January
it planned to eliminate 1,200 jobs, or 86 percent of its
temporary workforce, by March 31.
Outlook ‘Severe’
“The outlook remains severe, but we expect the economy to
head toward a recovery,” Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister
Yoshimasa Hayashi told reporters. “We have to pay full
attention to risks including production levels, a worsening job
market and downside risks for the global economy.”
Japan’s biggest markets are improving. A report last week
showed the euro area contracted 0.1 percent last quarter, the
region’s best performance in more than a year. The U.S. shrank
at an annualized rate of 1 percent, the least in a year. China
grew 7.9 percent from a year ago.
Spending at home was lifted by Prime Minister Taro Aso’s
25 trillion yen ($263 billion) in stimulus spending. Consumer
outlays, which account for more than half of the economy, rose
0.8 percent last quarter, adding 0.5 percentage point to the
expansion, the Cabinet Office said.
Toyota’s Sales
The packages, which include incentives to encourage the
purchase of eco-friendly products, are the main reason Toyota
Motor Corp. is predicting its domestic sales will rise for the
first time in five years.
Polls show Aso’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party is likely
to lose the lower house election to the opposition Democratic
Party of Japan, which has never held power before. Some 43
percent of voters support the DPJ, almost double the 26 percent
of those who support the LDP, a Nikkei Inc. and TV Tokyo Corp.
poll released this month showed.
Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said last week
the recovery may not be strong and there’s no guarantee that
demand for the country’s products and services will gain
momentum. The central bank will keep the benchmark interest
rate at 0.1 percent at least through 2010, according to
economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Economists predict low production levels will drive the
jobless rate to a record 5.8 percent next year from the current
5.4 percent. Japanese workers are also suffering unprecedented
wage cuts that are likely to damp spending once the effect of
the government’s stimulus package tapers off.
“Companies are burdened with huge overcapacity in terms
of equipment and people,” said Seiji Shiraishi, chief
economist at HSBC Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo. “It’s much
worse than in previous recoveries.”
To contact the reporters on this story:
Jason Clenfield in Tokyo at
jclenfi...@bloomberg.net;
Tatsuo Ito in Tokyo at
ti...@bloomberg.net
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