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--- On Mon, 8/24/09, trader8...@gmail.com <trader8...@gmail.com> wrote: > From: trader8...@gmail.com <trader8...@gmail.com> > Subject: [ob] Roubini Sees Increasing Risk of Double-Dip Recession > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > Date: Monday, August 24, 2009, 9:29 PM > > Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, the New York > University professor who predicted the financial crisis, > said the chance of a double-dip recession is increasing > because of risks related to ending global monetary and > fiscal stimulus. > > The global economy will bottom out in the second half of > 2009, Roubini wrote in a Financial Times commentary today. > The recession in the U.S., the U.K., and some European > countries will not be “formally over” before the end of > the year, while the recovery has started in nations such as > China, France, Germany, Australia and Japan, he said. > > Governments around the world have pledged about $2 > trillion in stimulus measures amid the worst worldwide > recession since the Great Depression. Federal Reserve > Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and other global policy makers have > cautioned that the recovery is likely to be muted, > indicating they would not soon remove all the stimulus > injected into the financial system. > > “There are risks associated with exit strategies from > the massive monetary and fiscal easing,” Roubini wrote. > “Policy makers are damned if they do and damned if they > don’t.” > > Government and central bank officials may undermine the > recovery and tip their economies back into > “stagdeflation” if they raise taxes, cut spending and > mop up excess liquidity in their systems to reduce fiscal > deficits, Roubini says. He defines “stagdeflation” as > recession and deflation. > > Market Vigilantes > > Those who maintain large budget deficits will be punished > by bond market vigilantes, as inflationary expectations and > yields on long-term government bonds rise and borrowing > costs climb sharply, he wrote. That will in turn lead to > stagflation, Roubini said. > > European Central Bank officials led by President Jean- > Claude Trichet are suggesting they won’t rush to reverse > their emergency stimulus amid mounting evidence of an > economic recovery. The ECB has cut its benchmark interest > rate to a record 1 percent and is buying covered bonds and > flooding banks with money. > > “We see some signs confirming that the real economy is > starting to get out of the period of freefall,” Trichet > said at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, > Wyoming, on Aug. 22. This “does not mean at all that we do > not have a very bumpy road ahead of us.” > > When needed, the ECB will implement a “credible exit > strategy” from its crisis policies, Trichet said. > > ‘Monetary Medicine’ > > The U.S. must address the massive amounts of “monetary > medicine” that have been pumped into the financial system > and now pose threats to the economy and the dollar, > billionaire Warren Buffett said last week. > > Roubini currently expects a U-shaped recovery, where > growth will be “anemic and below trend for at least a > couple of years,” he said. A full global recovery from the > current recession may take two years or more, Nobel laureate > Paul Krugman said earlier this month. > > Rising unemployment, a global financial system that is > still “severely damaged” and weak corporate > profitability are among reasons why any recovery won’t be > V-shaped, Roubini said. > > “Strains persist in many financial markets across the > globe,” Bernanke said in an Aug. 21 speech in Jackson > Hole. “The economic recovery is likely to be relatively > slow at first, with unemployment declining only gradually > from high levels.” > > Energy and food prices are also rising faster than > warranted by economic fundamentals, which may also increase > the risk of a double-dip recession, Roubini wrote, adding > that they could be driven by speculative trades. > > “Last year, oil at $145 a barrel was a tipping point for > the global economy as it created negative terms of trade and > a disposable income shock for oil-importing economies,” he > said. “The global economy could not withstand another > contractionary shock if similar speculation drives oil > rapidly toward $100 a barrel.” > > To contact the reporter on this story: Shamim Adam in > Singapore at sad...@bloomberg.net > > > === > Sent from Bloomberg for Blackberry. Download it from the > Blackberry App World! > > Powered by Telkomsel BlackBerry® > > ------------------------------------ > > + + > + + + + + > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus > > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. > + + + + + > + +Yahoo! Groups Links > > > mailto:obrolan-bandar-fullfeatu...@yahoogroups.com > > >
