Harga Target diatas 3000 terlalu demanding dan kurang kasih proteksi
downside kalo ada capaian yg gak sesuai proyeksi.
Sell-Siders terlalu fokus pada ASP 2010-2011 dan setelahnya., analisa mereka
terlalu menitik-beratkan pada ASP bukan volume tercapai.
ini memberikan proteksi yg minim untuk downside karena ASP sangat sulit
untuk ditebak dan upgrade-downgrade asumsi $5-$10 untuk ASP aja udah enteng
ngangkat TP dari netral-buy ato sebaliknya. harusnya lebih ke volume
produksi lebih aman untuk dicermati. karena ;
1. Volume yg tidak sesuai harapan bisa berarti ada perlambatan pesanan dari
pembeli mancanegara (produsen2 listrik nunggu ekonomi benar2 pulih jd tunda
pesanan atau re-negosiasi). Ingat BUMI 2008 cuma bisa Output 53 Juta Ton.
hanya meningkat 1 juta ton dari 2007 yg 52 Juta ton. meski memang BUMI
dirundung masalah batas lahan dan hujan, ini sih kasih minimal produksi bisa
di level 55 juta ton tapi ya untuk upside menuju 100 juta ton 2012 kesannya
terlalu muluk saat ini.
2. tidak segampang itu elevate volume produksi.
Dharma Henwa untuk Q109 cuma membukukan kenaikan pendapatan kurang dari
10% dari Q408, sementara pendapatan mereka kan dari volume overburden
removal, volume overburden removal berarti tidak naik signifikan dan berarti
KPC tidak dalam langkah rapid kejar produksi karena mungkin pasar rill batu
bara ekspor juga gak sebegitu bergairahnya.
dibawah 2600 bisa kasih kita proteksi downside, as simple as that. MOS. kalo
Bos Art bisa kasih dibawah 2600 kan berarti lebih nyaman buat Investor
pegang BUMI. Upsidenya nanti jadi bonus.
On Wed, Sep 2, 2009 at 12:04 PM, Ferry <ferry.wachj...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
> Ahhh....citi mau jualan kali. Biar ada yg nampung tuch!
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
> <obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>[mailto:
> obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com <obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>]
> On Behalf Of Bagus Putra Perdana
> Sent: Wednesday, September 02, 2009 12:03 PM
> To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com <obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>
> Subject: Re: Bls: [ob] BUMI (TP Rp3,800) - Citigroup: Upgrade to Buy:
> Leveraged Play on Better Thermal Coal Outlook
>
> DUMP lg sedikit Jendral., angka Citi terlalu fokus sama 2010-2011.
> Less cushion for the downside. Hit it. 2600 and lower. Baru enak liat
> FCF yieldnya. Ure the Man!
>
> On 9/2/09, artomoro9 <artomo...@yahoo.co.id <artomoro9%40yahoo.co.id>>
> wrote:
> >
> > ane tanya kang BAGUS dulu yee..
> >
> > regards,
> >
> > A9
> >
> > disclaimerontheway
> >
> > --- Pada Rab, 2/9/09, CUMI.JK (Buy, TP 5000)
> > <cumie...@gmail.com<cumienak%40gmail.com>>
> menulis:
> >
> > Dari: CUMI.JK (Buy, TP 5000) <cumie...@gmail.com <cumienak%40gmail.com>>
> > Judul: [ob] BUMI (TP Rp3,800) - Citigroup: Upgrade to Buy: Leveraged Play
> on
> > Better Thermal Coal Outlook
> > Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com<obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>
> > Tanggal: Rabu, 2 September, 2009, 11:20 AM
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Kali aja pingin ngelawan Jendral Art,
> > atau jendral Art mo beli di 2225, jual di 3800?
> >
> > =======
> > BUY, BUY, BUY! KEEP BUYING AND NEVER SELL!
> >
> >
> >
> > ---------- Forwarded message ----------
> > Bumi Resources (BUMI.JK)
> >
> >
> > Upgrade to Buy: Leveraged Play on Better Thermal Coal Outlook
> >
> > Upgrade to Buy/High Risk; Raising target price to Rp3,800 — Robust
> > earnings
> >
> > growth outlook and high FCF yield lead us to upgrade our rating to
> > Buy/High
> >
> > Risk from Sell/Speculative.. The market is pricing in benchmark
> > coal price of c.
> >
> > US$76/ton; meaning upside risks to our US$80-90/ton forecasts for
> > 2010-11.
> >
> > Supportive coal price outlook — Citi’s commodities team
> > recently raised its
> >
> > thermal coal price forecasts for 2010-11 to US$80-90/ton from
> > US$70, citing
> >
> > structural improvement. Prospects of China becoming a sustained
> > net importer
> >
> > of coal provides upside risks to medium and long-term coal price
> > forecasts.
> >
> > Sanity check — Our IDR3,800 target price imputes an
> > EV/reserve of
> >
> > USD5.4/ton (6..8% of 2010E Japan benchmark price of US$80/ton).
> > This
> >
> > compares favorably with the implied EV/reserve from Tata’s
> > acquisition at
> >
> > US$4/ton (7.3% of 2007 benchmark price of US$55/ton). Our ‘floor
> > valuation’
> >
> > estimate is Rp2,700/share based on DCF and Tata’s implied
> > EV/reserve
> >
> > valuation.
> >
> > Convertible Bond – Double-Edged Sword — With
> > coupon rate of 9.25%, Bumi’s
> >
> > latest US$375m convertible bond is not cheap. Bumi’s capped call
> > option
> >
> > reduces the potential dilution risk while its equity swap position
> > (essentially a
> >
> > leveraged long position in Bumi’s stock) is an unequivocal signal
> > to us that
> >
> > management is bullish on Bumi’s medium and long-term outlook.
> >
> > Transfer of Coverage — We are transferring coverage of
> > BUMI.JK to Kim Kwie
> >
> > Sjamsudin from Margarett Go.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Akses email lebih cepat. Yahoo! menyarankan Anda meng-upgrade
> browser
> > ke Internet Explorer 8 baru yang dioptimalkan untuk Yahoo! Dapatkan di
> sini!
> > http://downloads.yahoo.com/id/internetexplorer
>
> --
> Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to
> the complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In
> fact, everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because
> we know that we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things
> must be learned only to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be
> corrected.......The test of all knowledge is experiment. Experiment is
> the sole judge of scientific “truth”. - Richard Feynman
>
> ------------------------------------
>
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>
>
>
--
Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to the
complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In fact,
everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because we know that
we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things must be learned only
to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be corrected.......The test of all
knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the sole judge of scientific “truth”.
- Richard Feynman
