Pak sorry untuk mengajukan pertanyaan junior (karena masi junior.. Hehe) dengan data tersebut boleh minta saran, Bumi layaknya di koleksi di harga berapa dan real valuenya berapa? Saham keluarga B memikli real value(nilai aslinya) ± political value. Nah kalau di lepas political valuenya, real valunya saat ini berapa ya? Boleh minta saran.. Terima kasih. Richard
Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -----Original Message----- From: Bagus Putra Perdana <disclosure....@gmail.com> Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2009 08:40:41 To: <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com> Cc: Nicholas Alvin<sa...@yahoogroups.com> Subject: Re: [ob] BUMI EPS $ 5.97 BUMI Bisa Extract 1,2 MILYAR TON sebelum PKP2B kadaluarsa aja udah keren.. (kalo bisa).. gak semua Cadangan apalagi Sumber Daya itu Economically Viable, Jangankan Sumber Daya (Resources), 2 P (Proven & Probable) Reserves aja belum tentu semuanya bisa masuk POD (Plan Of Development) tanpa merubah struktur marjin operasi saat-ini. Keputusan Masuk Ke Tunjaman yang lebih bawah, ke tingkat kalori yang lebih rendah, atau ke pit baru yg lokasinya relatif remote bisa merubah struktur marjin karena butuh investasi yang nilainya amat signifikan, bahkan jika uang untuk investasi cukup pun gak serta merta bisa ujug-ujug extrasi batu bara seenak2nya. land clearing dan perencanaan tambang kan harus pake izin sana-sini selain ada kajian internalnya juga. trus pesen alat berat en kontraktor pengerjaan juga gak bisa sim-salabim alakadabra hari ini pengen nambah extract bisa bulan depan efektif direalisasi. lagian andai produksi meningkat, manajemen juga harus memperkirakan tim marketingnya bisa gak masarin tu kelebihan batubara di harga yang bagus. kalo harga lagi gak bagus, buyer lagi nawar rendah-rendah ya jangankan lebarin margin buat nutup biaya Capex aja bisa gak viable. iyah bener potensi ke ningkatin Extraksi batu bara itu ada banget, makanya yg kita semua concern dan pertanyakan tentu kenapa BUMI gak invest en tunjukkin mereka memang menggenjot produksi dan ekstraksi cadangan dan sumber daya melimpahnya. It isnt that easy to increase and folding production when u were at the production level of above 50 Mt P/A. Infrastructure and hence capital investment is needed aswell as competency and capabilities of available contractors. to implied all of their resources could be monetized and then present valuing it is utterly ridiculous. 60 Mt to 80 Mt Production is presummably Priced-In by Investor at current BUMI Price. big problem will aroused if they cant deliver those level of production by the time they promised it. or they do increase production but at a rather slow pace I.e 2009 55 Mt 2010 65 Mt 2011 80 Mt 2012 95 Mt? do u know how much changes 5 Mt P/A misses would implied on the terminal - or even life of mine valuation of BUMI?. It is very Important, this management seriousness level of increase production and sales. we were all buying the "future & distant assumptions" here today with them. good thing is that regardless of the production volume, Coal Price Level of 2012 onward would certainly be above $ 100. that is an almost certain thing. bad thing is that its fairly well known that the reputation of BUMI management in terms of using shareholder money into the right and productive segment of their business is not the best in the sector (who knows, they might even use 2009 FCF to buy another acquisition target instead of install new port or production fascilities) if u were an investor. dont discount a too distant future and promises of management to today prices unless they really shows that it is highly visible. its really dangerous i tell u. 2009/9/11 nicholas alvin <nicholas_al...@yahoo.com> > > > BUMI memiliki kandungan batubara sebanyak lebih dari 10 milyar MT. > Berandai andai: > kalau harga jual $ 70/ mt, dijual semuanya, pendapatannya $ 700 milyar > Dengan OPM 37.63 % maka operating profitnya $ 263.41 milyar. > Atau laba operasi persahamnya $ 13.57 atau Rp 135.700,- > Dengan NPM 16.54 %, makan net profitnya $ 115.78 milyar > Laba bersih persaham = $ 5.97 atau Rp 59.700,- > Kalau saja BG punya 60 % saham BUMI maka kekayaan BG = $ 69 milyar > lebih kaya dari Warren Buffett atau Bill Gates. > Apalagi kalau harga batubara naik ke $ 200/Mt, kita2 juga pada kecipratan > rejeki. > >__________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around > http://mail.yahoo.com > > -- Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to the complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In fact, everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because we know that we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things must be learned only to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be corrected.......The test of all knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the sole judge of scientific “truth”. - Richard Feynman
