Bos kalo BTEL bisa masuk ga hari ini ? thanks for advise ari
2009/9/17 CUMI.JK (Buy, TP 5000) <cumie...@gmail.com> > > > BUY, BUY, BUY! KEEP BUYING AND NEVER SELL! > (Jadi kolektor, dong?) > > > ---------- Forwarded message ---------- > > *From:* Danareksa Equity Research > *Sent:* Thursday, September 17, 2009 8:54 AM > *Subject:* Bakrie Telecom (BTEL IJ, Rp142 BUY) Heading in the right > direction > > > > Bakrie Telecom > > > > Heading in the right direction > > > > *TP raised to Rp240 * > > Bakrie Telecom has posted good financial results in 1H09 with sound > revenues growth supported by an increasing subscriber base. Within the > telecoms sector, only Bakrie Telecom and Telkom managed to record positive > net additions in 1H09. This shows that competition is still stiff. Bakrie > Telecom’s success owes a great deal to its excellent business model and its > simple pricing structure that is easy for customers to understand. Despite > the good results, however, we trim our forecasts because of slightly > lower-than-expected RPM (to Rp160 from our previous estimate of Rp175). Yet > our TP is raised to Rp240 reflecting: 1) a reduction in the cost of equity > to 16% from 20% 2) the rolling out of our estimate to 2010. All in all, we > remain upbeat on Bakrie Telecom. BUY maintained. > > > > *Net additions in a competitive environment* > > Total net additions reached 1.6mn in 1H09 with nearly 875,000 in 2Q09 > alone. Besides Bakrie Telecom, only Telkomsel was able to post positive net > additions in 1H09. In contrast, other operators like XL and Indosat have > suffered because of the calling card phenomenon in addition to the stiff > competition, thereby causing them to record negative net additions. On the > back of this strong subscriber growth, Bakrie Telecom’s revenues grew 34.9% > yoy to 1.7tr in 1H09. ARPU dipped however - from Rp36,000 in 1Q09 to > Rp34,000 in 1H09. MoU was relatively stable at 180 minutes per sub per > month, translating into revenues per minute (RPM) of Rp168/minute in 2Q09 > (-4.3% qoq), clearly showing that Bakrie Telecom remains competitive. > > > > *Accounting adjustments do not affect cash flows* > > Bakrie Telecom has adopted PSAK 30 (adopted from the IRS) regarding the > reclassification and adjustment on accounts related to tower rental expenses > to lease accounts. Thus, the tower lease is classified as a financial lease > depending on the substance of the contract and not the form of the contract. > Assets under a capital lease are recognized if the lease transfers > substantially all the risks and rewards incidental to ownership. As a > consequence of these accounting adjustments, Bakrie Telecom recorded > indirect ownership – that is leased assets of Rp2.1tr and obligations under > capital lease of Rp1.8tr. Additionally, there was reclassification from > maintenance expenses to depreciation causing the EBITDA to jump to Rp620bn, > pushing up the EBITDA margin to 37.2% in 1H09 from 28.8% in 1Q09. We believe > this reclassification overstates the EBITDA. Hence, our DCF valuation is > based on the EBITDA on a cash basis. > > > > *Chandra S Pasaribu*** > > (62-21) 351 0748 > > chan...@danareksa.com > > > > **************** > CONFIDENTIALITY: The information contained in or attached to this electronic > transmission > is confidential and may be legally privileged. It is intended for the named > recipient(s) only. > If you are not the named recipient, you are hereby notified that any > distribution, copying, > review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of this electronic > transmission or > the information contained in it is strictly prohibited. > The information expressed herein may contain the private views and opinions > of the sender > that does not constitute the formal views and opinions of PT. Danareksa > (Persero) and its > subsidiaries, and should not in any ways be construed as the views, offers, > or acceptances > of these entities, unless specifically stated. PT. Danareksa (Persero) and > its subsidiaries > does not take any responsibilities nor accepts any claims of liabilities > and/or damages > for statements which are clearly the sender's own and not made on behalf of > the entities > concerned. > > > >
