Thanks Kang buat pencerahannya... I am confident now... ________________________________
From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of kang_ocoy_maen_saham Sent: Friday, October 02, 2009 2:13 PM To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] MEDC Everyone ? Oh engga pak... Ini "Asset-Play"... saya sebenernya willing untuk keep ini barang sampe 2012-an, saat semua proyeknya selesai... saya emang selalu colek2 kalo barang ini udah kebawah... sebenernya ngarepnya malah jgn naek dulu krn pgnnya build posisi di harga bawah... hehe ;P asetnya meyakinkan dan cash managementnya bagus.... biaya lifting relatif rendah hingga ada proteksi econimical downturn. Rationale saya nambah posisi sedikit lg krn takutnya mungkin ini naek krn ada "insider" yg masuk krn berita internal project2 bottlenecknya dah mulai membuka. saya takut ketinggalan kalo iya soalnya value assetnya memang bagus kalo bisa full jalan. kalo "value"nya bisa ke un-lock. harusnya scr konservatif aja bisa maen di4000-ish dlm wkt 12 bulan kedepan. Value asli ini barang memang disegitu. selama ini memang terkunci krn eksekusinya banyak yg ke delay. kas internal amat memadai buat jalanin proyek2nya. Kalo bisa "Go" secara berantai kira2 sesuai prioritas waktu proyek2 terhambatnya yg kalo cair bisa jadi katalis adalah SBB : Block A Extensi (Temuan sudah siap diproduksi, buyer udah ada, hanya memang sudah expired izin nya dan sedang proses perpanjangan izin di BP MIGAS, begitu izin keluar duit lgsg dikucurin dan pembangunan lgsg dijalanin) Sarulla Geothermal (sempet alot krn PLN gak mau terima angka penawaran konsorsium MEDC di $6-$7, terakhir ada ketetapan Pemerintah untuk Panas Bumi batas atasnya di $8.6, mudah2an ini jg bisa mencair dan dapet titik temu) Senoro... (No Comment dah.. Politis banget.. saya jg benernya udah rada hopeless, harganya harus tinggi untuk bisa feasible dan butuh biaya gede sehingga komitmen pinjaman jangka panjang dan besar dr JBIC susah cari gantinya dlm waktu cepat) Area 47 (nah ini sebenrnya bisa jadi hidden jackpotnya MEDC, cadangan besar, Verenex berhasil menawarkan seluruh bagiannya disini (50 %) ke China Petrol di harga $450 juta. nilai segitu bisa diasumsikan jadi "REPRODUCTIVE-VALUE" MEDC yg harusnya bisa diambil buat adjustment asset MEDC. (di neraca MEDC Libya Prospect belon boleh masuk sebagai aset kecuali izin final sudah ditangan) ada kekhawatiran sedikit masalah declining produksi., terutama dependance sama maturing Rimau. tapi downfallnya emang hanya dalam jangka pendek, dan potential up-side story buat jangka panjangnya masih lebih banyak. institusi banyak yg belum masuk kesini tapi andai katakanlah Blok A, Sarulla, 47 atau senoro tiba2 ada perkembangan izin yg positif. kemungkinan ini bisa jadi target potensial juga. Bet-nya disitu. di tahun 2010 saya asumsikan minimal 2 dari 4 project diatas sudah ada finalisasi sehingga Kas bisa dikucurkan dan Value bisa di un-lock. im willing to hold up this counter until some years ahead of now, takutnya ada pemain cukup besar yg punya pemikiran sama dan sekarang mulai akumulasi barang. kalo ternyata cuman permainan perbandaran jangka pendek dan harga balik ke bawah.. ya kumpulin dikit-dikit lagi toh. hehe. ini barang kan emang ada "isi"nya. mumpung masih bisa kurangin bobot di energy-exposure yg lain yg udah deket full value dan pindahin kemari. re-balancing ;P. --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> , "Prasetyo, Hani" <hani.prase...@...> wrote: > > Mantap dah kalo kang ocoy ajah confident... berdasarkan itungan akang, > berape fair valuenya kang? > > > > > > ________________________________ > > From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> > [mailto:obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> ] On Behalf Of JsxTrader > Sent: Friday, October 02, 2009 11:26 AM > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> > Subject: RE: [ob] MEDC Everyone ? > > > > > > Cakep, Looks Like FA in line dengan TA nih.. hehehe....., diem2 si Akang > aggressive juga ya..., hehe.., Gut Lak Kang.. > > JT > > -----Original Message----- > From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> > <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> > [mailto:obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> > <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> ] > On Behalf Of kang_ocoy_maen_saham > Sent: 02 Oktober 2009 11:11 > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> > <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> > Subject: Re: [ob] MEDC Everyone ? > > I'm On... 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