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________________________________ From: Peter Alimin <milis...@live.com> To: OB <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com> Sent: Mon, October 12, 2009 8:04:18 PM Subject: Re: [ob] Dow 10,000... Oil udah sempet 73,5 break 74 atau dkt2 75 should be easylah.. Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -----Original Message----- From: Thomas Frederick <thomaszone_2...@yahoo.com> Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2009 13:03:18 To: <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com> Subject: Re: [ob] Dow 10,000... Sebelumnya Colin Twiggs memprediksi bahwa Dow akan jebol karena Head N shoulder pattern (sekitar bbrp bln lalu) Akankah kali ini kontra lagi analisanya? ---------------- From: "Aria Bela Nusa" <ariab...@centrin.net.id> Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2009 19:58:44 +0700 To: <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com> Subject: [ob] Dow 10,000... Dow 10,000 By Colin Twiggs October 12, 3:00 a.m. ET (6:00 p.m. AET) These extracts from my trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment or trading advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use <http://www.incrediblecharts.com/legal_vizhon/terms_of_use.htm> . We remain in the high-risk period following the end of the third quarter. The Dow is also testing its key resistance level of 10000, while the FTSE 100 and ASX 200 are testing their key level of 5000. Upward breakout would confirm a bull market, while respect of these levels would warn of a secondary correction. In the long term, we are not out of the woods. John Mauldin in Thoughts From The Frontline <http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/article.asp?id=mwo100909> highlights recent research by Peter Bernholz (Professor of Economics at the University of Basel, Switzerland) into the causes of hyper-inflation. In his book Monetary Regimes and Inflation: History, Economic and Political Relationships <http://astore.amazon.com/incrediblecha-20/detail/1845427785> , Bernholz analyzes 12 of the largest episodes of hyper-inflation in the last 20 years. All were caused by financing huge public budget deficits through money creation and he concludes that the tipping point for hyper-inflation occurs when government deficits exceed 40% of expenditures. US budget deficits of 40 per cent or more are projected for 2009 and 2010, a clear warning despite the current credit contraction. If hyper-inflation occurs, traders would want to be short on bonds and long on real assets such as stocks, precious metals and real estate. The recent surge in gold indicates that inflationary fears are growing. Commodities Baltic Dry Index reversal above 2500 indicates that demand for bulk commodity shipping is recovering - a positive sign for commodity prices and resources stocks. Retracement that respects the September low would signal the start of a primary advance. Baltic Dry Index The RJ/CRB Commodities Index found support at 250 and is now rallying to test 270; breakout would confirm a primary advance to 300*. Reversal below 247 is now unlikely, but would warn of reversal to a primary down-trend. CRB Commodities Index * Target calculation: 266 + ( 266 - 232 ) = 300 USA Dow Jones Industrial Average The Dow found support at 9500 before rallying to test 10000. Reversal below 9500 would indicate a secondary correction, while breakout above 10000 would signal another primary advance. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day), however, still shows a bearish divergence and reversal below zero would indicate a correction. In the long term, breakout above 10000 would offer a target of 12000*; failure of support at 8000 is unlikely, but would signal reversal to a primary down-trend. Dow Jones Industrial Average * Target calculation: 10000 + ( 10000 - 8000 ) = 12000 ------------------------------------ + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links
