AMFG cocok utk yg pegang jangka waktu lama. On Tue, Oct 20, 2009 at 8:46 PM, Lucky Trader <[email protected]>wrote:
> Appreciate for valuable sharing. Keep posting Sir > > GBU > -LT > > On 10/20/09, Herman <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > > > > Extracted from Goldman Sach's report dated 20 October 2009: > > > > > > > > Expect 4% of industry capacity to be affected for 2-3 months > > > > Corning announced after the October 19 close (JST) that its glass plant > in > > Taichung, Taiwan was affected by a power outage. The company previously > > expected volume to rise by about 5% qoq in Oct-Dec, but it announced that > > because of this incident 4Q volume could remain flat or fall slightly. > > Corning is working to assess the specific impact, but our channel checks > > indicate that 5 of the plant's 14 furnaces were affected, which we > estimate > > is about 4% of the LCD glass industry's production capacity, and that > these > > furnaces will need repairs that will prevent them being restarted for 2-3 > > months. > > > > > > > > Positive for Asahi Glass/Nippon Electric Glass; neutral for panels > > > > Two industry implications: > > > > (1) Impact for glass makers: We think Samsung Corning Precision, Nippon > > Electric Glass (5214.T, Neutral; Oct. 19 closing price ¥960), and Asahi > > Glass (5201.T, Buy, Conviction List; Oct. 19 closing price ¥794) are > likely > > to compensate for shipment shortfalls at Corning's Taiwan plant, and that > > near-term volume is likely to be slightly higher at each firm. We think > > glass supply/demand could be tighter than we previously expected in > Oct-Dec > > and Jan-Mar. If price declines are smaller, we believe consensus > estimates > > for glass maker earnings could rise for FY09 and FY10. We think this is > > positive news for Nippon Electric Glass and Asahi Glass. We maintain our > buy > > rating for Asahi Glass, and keep the stock on our Conviction List. (2) > > Impact for panel makers: We think LG Display, Samsung and Innolux are > less > > impacted by this incident. Note that Innolux is sheltered by a guaranteed > > supply contract with Corning. We expect panel prices will still hold up > in > > the next two months, supported by glass supply constraint, and that risk > to > > our 4Q09 earnings forecast should be on the upside. However, this is not > > going to change the industry overcapacity downward trend. We believe the > > effect of a seasonal slowdown in demand will still be greater than the > > impact of a glass shortage. We retain a Buy on LGD, Neutral on AUO and > > Innolux and Sell on CMO. > > > > > > > > > ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > > > > > > > Extracted from Danareksa's report dated 29 September 2006: > > > > > > > > It's a world-class glass producer with a leading market share. AMFG is a > > subsidiary of Asahi Glass of Japan, a major global player in the > production > > of glass. It commands some 41% capacity share in Indonesia, with over 95% > > market share of domestic automotive glass and 40% of flat glass. > > > > > > > > AMFG produces two types of glass: > > > > > > > > 1. Flat glass > > > > This product is used in buildings (33%) and the automotive industry > (67%). > > Capacity utilization is 98%. The product contributes 80% to total sales. > > Some 60% of the product is sold to the export market. > > > > > > > > 2. Automotive glass > > > > The product is processed from flat glass. Capacity utilization is around > > 85-90%. Some 20% is sold to the export market, and 80% is sold to the OEM > > market. The Company's market share in the OEM segment is 95%. It also has > > 60-65% market share in the ARG (Auto Repair Glass) market, with the > > remainder accounted for by Mulia and other players (Armada, Adiputro, > etc). > > The main export market is Asia, whereby 20% is sold to the Japanese > market. > > > > > > > > The Company currently operates four lines of production. It does not plan > to > > increase the production capacity in the near-term as with only 5% growth > in > > domestic demand, the management believes that the current capacity will > > suffice to meet additional demand. The management estimates that to add > one > > line of production with capacity of 160,000 metric tons, it would need to > > invest some US$60-100mn. > > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > > > AMFG has just finished its Cold Repair project at F3-Jakarta furnace and > > resumed operation on Sep 5, 2009. The repair was initially estimated to > take > > 6-7 months to complete, commencing on Apr 1, 2009 and to lower production > > capacity by 25%. Slightly ahead of schedule. This will only be reflected > in > > its 4Q09 results. AMFG also diversified into producing high quality flat > > glass by adding CVD (Chemical Vapour Deposition) to it's A-2 production > line > > (furnace) in Sidoarjo, by investing USD 24.52mn. > > > > > > > > Back in 2006, Danareksa valued AMFG based on several valuation methods. > "On > > a DCF screen, assuming 5% terminal growth and 17.6% WACC, AMFG is > > theoretically worth in excess of Rp5,000/share. From an NAV perspective, > we > > reckon it is worth closer to Rp8,500/share. If one takes a more > conservative > > stance, based on its normalized earnings of some Rp200b, a 10x PER > suggests > > AMFG is worth Rp4,600/share, which is what our TP is." > > > > Glass is used in the automotive, property and electronics manufacturing > (LCD > > TV) sectors. Indonesian proxy of automotive and property sectors like > ASII, > > CTRA, ELTY and others have rebounded strongly this year. While we can not > > say that AMFG deserves the same treatment, at least it is worth to look > > into, considering its relatively laggard performance, neglected sector > and > > very POOR liquidity. AMFG has been out of analysts' and investors' radar > for > > the past 3 years. Share price reached its record high at Rp 4725 in mid > Oct > > 2005, Rp 3500 on 31 Jan 2008 and at Rp 1800 as per yesterday's (19 Oct > 2009) > > close. Some (most likely, individual) investors may have already trimmed > > down their positions due to illiquidity and absorbed by value investors > whom > > have longer investment horizon period. Therefore, we think that liquidity > > may improve as and when price heads higher. We may not be surprised to > see > > that there are not many willing sellers at this level, but we think there > > will be willing sellers when the price reaches Rp 2500 and or above. > > > > AMFG suffered Rp 413mn loss in 1H09 resulting from the Cold Repair and > CVD > > projects which lowered the company's production by around 25%. 2H09 will > > certainly better. AMFG is currently trading at 0.53x of its 1H09 book > value > > of Rp 3409. 3 years ago, AMFG traded around 1x P/BV. > > > > > ------------------------------------ > > + + > + + + + + > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. > + + + + + > + +Yahoo! Groups Links > > > >
