My dear, laporan dari Danareksa berasal dari Friday, 29 September 2006, mungkin
salah tanggal atau gimana ?
--- On Tue, 10/20/09, Herman <power8...@gmx.net> wrote:
From: Herman <power8...@gmx.net>
Subject: [ob] Fw: Asahimas Flat Glass (AMFG) - A stock to watchout for early
sign of operational turnaround
To: "obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups. Com" <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com>
Date: Tuesday, October 20, 2009, 9:07 AM
Extracted from Goldman Sach’s report dated 20 October 2009:
Expect 4% of industry capacity to be affected for 2-3 months
Corning announced after the October 19 close (JST) that its glass plant in
Taichung, Taiwan was affected by a power outage. The company previously
expected volume to rise by about 5% qoq in Oct-Dec, but it announced that
because of this incident 4Q volume could remain flat or fall slightly. Corning
is working to assess the specific impact, but our channel checks indicate that
5 of the plant’s 14 furnaces were affected, which we estimate is about 4% of
the LCD glass industry’s production capacity, and that these furnaces will need
repairs that will prevent them being restarted for 2-3 months.
Positive for Asahi Glass/Nippon Electric Glass; neutral for panels
Two industry implications:
(1) Impact for glass makers: We think Samsung Corning Precision, Nippon
Electric Glass (5214.T, Neutral; Oct. 19 closing price ¥960), and Asahi Glass
(5201.T, Buy, Conviction List; Oct. 19 closing price ¥794) are likely to
compensate for shipment shortfalls at Corning’s Taiwan plant, and that
near-term volume is likely to be slightly higher at each firm. We think glass
supply/demand could be tighter than we previously expected in Oct-Dec and
Jan-Mar. If price declines are smaller, we believe consensus estimates for
glass maker earnings could rise for FY09 and FY10. We think this is positive
news for Nippon Electric Glass and Asahi Glass. We maintain our buy rating for
Asahi Glass, and keep the stock on our Conviction List. (2) Impact for panel
makers: We think LG Display, Samsung and Innolux are less impacted by this
incident. Note that Innolux is sheltered by a guaranteed supply contract with
Corning. We expect panel prices will still hold up in the
next two months, supported by glass supply constraint, and that risk to our
4Q09 earnings forecast should be on the upside. However, this is not going to
change the industry overcapacity downward trend. We believe the effect of a
seasonal slowdown in demand will still be greater than the impact of a glass
shortage. We retain a Buy on LGD, Neutral on AUO and Innolux and Sell on CMO.
------------ --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------
Extracted from Danareksa’s report dated 29 September 2006:
It’s a world-class glass producer with a leading market share. AMFG is a
subsidiary of Asahi Glass of Japan, a major global player in the production of
glass. It commands some 41% capacity share in Indonesia, with over 95% market
share of domestic automotive glass and 40% of flat glass.
AMFG produces two types of glass:
1. Flat glass
This product is used in buildings (33%) and the automotive industry (67%).
Capacity utilization is 98%. The product contributes 80% to total sales. Some
60% of the product is sold to the export market.
2. Automotive glass
The product is processed from flat glass. Capacity utilization is around
85-90%. Some 20% is sold to the export market, and 80% is sold to the OEM
market. The Company’s market share in the OEM segment is 95%. It also has
60-65% market share in the ARG (Auto Repair Glass) market, with the remainder
accounted for by Mulia and other players (Armada, Adiputro, etc). The main
export market is Asia, whereby 20% is sold to the Japanese market.
The Company currently operates four lines of production. It does not plan to
increase the production capacity in the near-term as with only 5% growth in
domestic demand, the management believes that the current capacity will suffice
to meet additional demand. The management estimates that to add one line of
production with capacity of 160,000 metric tons, it would need to invest some
US$60-100mn.
------------ --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ----
AMFG has just finished its Cold Repair project at F3-Jakarta furnace and
resumed operation on Sep 5, 2009. The repair was initially estimated to take
6-7 months to complete, commencing on Apr 1, 2009 and to lower production
capacity by 25%. Slightly ahead of schedule. This will only be reflected in its
4Q09 results. AMFG also diversified into producing high quality flat glass by
adding CVD (Chemical Vapour Deposition) to it’s A-2 production line (furnace)
in Sidoarjo, by investing USD 24.52mn.
Back in 2006, Danareksa valued AMFG based on several valuation methods. “On a
DCF screen, assuming 5% terminal growth and 17.6% WACC, AMFG is theoretically
worth in excess of Rp5,000/share. From an NAV perspective, we reckon it is
worth closer to Rp8,500/share. If one takes a more conservative stance, based
on its normalized earnings of some Rp200b, a 10x PER suggests AMFG is worth
Rp4,600/share, which is what our TP is.”
Glass is used in the automotive, property and electronics manufacturing (LCD
TV) sectors. Indonesian proxy of automotive and property sectors like ASII,
CTRA, ELTY and others have rebounded strongly this year. While we can not say
that AMFG deserves the same treatment, at least it is worth to look into,
considering its relatively laggard performance, neglected sector and very POOR
liquidity. AMFG has been out of analysts’ and investors’ radar for the past 3
years. Share price reached its record high at Rp 4725 in mid Oct 2005, Rp 3500
on 31 Jan 2008 and at Rp 1800 as per yesterday’s (19 Oct 2009) close. Some
(most likely, individual) investors may have already trimmed down their
positions due to illiquidity and absorbed by value investors whom have longer
investment horizon period. Therefore, we think that liquidity may improve as
and when price heads higher. We may not be surprised to see that there are not
many willing sellers at this level, but
we think there will be willing sellers when the price reaches Rp 2500 and or
above.
AMFG suffered Rp 413mn loss in 1H09 resulting from the Cold Repair and CVD
projects which lowered the company’s production by around 25%. 2H09 will
certainly better. AMFG is currently trading at 0.53x of its 1H09 book value of
Rp 3409. 3 years ago, AMFG traded around 1x P/BV.
