Soaring profits for PT Timah
Release date: 30 Apr 2007
(Source: ITRI)
Indonesia's state-controlled tin company PT Timah today
reported a Rp 314 billion (US$ 34 million) net profit
in the quarter ending 31 March, 26 times higher than in
the same period of 2006. Its margin per tonne hit a
record level of $3,759/tonne, up from $313/tonne in
January-March last year.
PT Timah's concentrate intake has increased
dramatically since last October, when competing
independent smelters were shut down in a clampdown by
the authorities. Following police action against the
other major Indonesian tin producer, PT Koba Tin in
January-February this year, Timah became the sole legal
buyer of concentrates from small scale miners in the
country.
Tin-in-concentrate received from inland mining
operations in Q1 (nearly all purchased) amounted to
20,230 tonnes, three times the volume recorded in the
corresponding period last year, while output from the
company's own offshore dredges fell 23% to 2,099
tonnes.
Reflecting the rise in concentrate intake, refined
metal production rose by 48% to 14,350 tonnes in the
quarter and there was also a large increase in stocks
of concentrate and slag held at the end of the period.
Stocks of tin-in-concentrate rose to 19,567 tonnes
while the tin content of slags rose to 12,566 tonnes.
----- Original Message -----
From: Jonni Amin, CFA, FRM
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Saturday, April 28, 2007 1:52 PM
Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Research of TINS
Saya lihat di spreadsheet tahun 2007E ada beberapa kelemahan:
1. tax-nya kok bisa positif, harusnya negatif -- mengurangi keuntungan dan
bukan malah menambah keuntungan. Spreadsheet ini jelas salah.
2. saya lihat cara hitung cost-nya linear, dan harusnya tidak boleh linear
untuk semua resource-based company. Artinya kalau harga rata-2 tin misalnya Rp
10,000 di Q4, dan ternyata di Q1 2007 naik menjadi 12,500 maka kenaikan tsb
semuanya menambah keuntungan dan hal ini tidak ada kaitannya dengan harga
produksi artinya hppnya tidak boleh ikut naik.
Menurut saya kalau tins di Q4 2006 bisa meraup untung kira2 Rp 160 milyar
(sebelum bonus) dengan harga rata2 timah Rp 10,000 per MT, maka di Q1 2007
harusnya bisa menjadi paling sedikit Q4 2006 + kenaikan rata2 harga timah
(lebih kurang $12,500 - $10,000 atau $ 2,500) x 13,000 MT estimasi produksi Q1
2007x 9,000 USD/IDR x 70% after tax. Artinya paling sedikit di atas Rp 300
milyar untuk Q1 2007 saja. Jadi keuntungan Rp 412 milyar untuk satu tahun 2007
dari estimasi Kresna jelas terlalu kecil.
Sekalipun harga timah menjadi hanya rata2 $ 12,000 per MT untuk tahun 2007,
dengan produksi PT Timah min 45,000 MT x 9,000 USD/IRD x margin ($12,000 -
$8,000) x 70% = Rp 1.134 triliun ==> atau EPS Rp 2,268. Harga valuasi
(konservatif PE 8X) = Rp 18,144
Ini pendapat saya dan bukan untuk mengkritik. Tapi jelas sekali
spreadsheetnya salah. Coba lihat lagi deh... taxnya kok bisa positif (malah
menambah keuntungan mulai dari tahun 2007E ke atas).
Regards
----- Original Message -----
From: Pemain Kecil
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Tuesday, April 24, 2007 8:38 PM
Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Research of TINS
Just want to share,
What do you think? any comments?
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ahhh...imagining that irresistible "new car" smell?
Check out new cars at Yahoo! Autos.
