*Very sorry I missed your email yesterday.* ** *MNCN still has very good prospect in medium term as it has been undervalued since global financial woes started.* *MNCN still has upside potential to 490-530 once after their group's project confirmed. * ** *Anyway even if the project cancelled due to some reasons (only if), its Bookvalue/share (incl. intangible asset) still at 330/share. Do you want to sell your equity under its bookvalue for such profit generating company (even with ROE at approx 8%, only a bit below SUN Yield)?* ** *Talking very simple thing using very simple quick calculation (using relative comparison with SUN)...* ** *10yrs SUN yield currently at 9.7%, while its 3yrs historical average ROE was 8.7% (we can assume for long-term up to 10 yrs MNCN would generate ROE at this level).* *SUN Yield = 9.7% ---> Par with P/E ratio of = 1 : 9.7% = 10.3x* *Deviation between its ROE - SUN Yield = 8.7% - 9.7%= -1% (or we can say lower than SUN yield and therefore should be priced below SUN)* ** *Fair price (under this scenario, excluding its next corporate action factors) for MNCN P/E ratio = 10.3 + (10.3 x (-1%)) = 10.3 - 0.103 = 10.2x* *2009's MNCN EPS is expected at approx. Rp33/share, assuming only 10% growth in 2010 net income (this is very pessimistic target of which normally this business having 15-20% growth per annum) so its expected forward 2010 EPS = Rp 33 x 1.1 = Rp 36/share.* *Target price = Rp 36/share x 10.2 = Rp367/share.* ** *That's the simple calculation only under pessimistic scenario and assuming their "project" (read: Corporate Action) would be cancelled. This is only for quick calculation, ofcourse to be more accurate you have to see on the cashflow, on its capital structure, its working capital needed to achieve future growth, sometime you also need to see its cash convertion cycle, etc. But this is good for simple quick calculation checking.
So, for medium term say 1 yr, do you want to sell it or take averaging down position?* *One thing for sure, this simple calculation is not for trading. To time the market, you should ask JT or Tasrul on what the chart tells you for trading. * ** ** *T.o.m* On 2/24/10, arsenal ruffinen <ind_g...@yahoo.com> wrote: > > > > Brother Tom should I cut loss tomorrow on mncn? Need your advise pls.. > > Powered by aRSeNal BlackBerry®insyaallah nyambung terussssss! > ------------------------------ > *From: *Tom DS <tom.ds.st...@gmail.com> > *Date: *Wed, 24 Feb 2010 22:49:38 +0700 > *To: *<obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com> > *Subject: *Re: [ob] MNCN > > > > > *Btw don't worry on MNCN & BMTR, they still have chances to be priced > fairly too.. 3xx is still too cheap my friend...* > *However it still needs some more catalysts to go up.. just give 'em some > more time.. * > ** > ** > *T.o.m* > > > On 2/24/10, Herman <herman_mil...@yahoo.com.sg> wrote: >> >> >> >> Pak Tom, >> >> Your info is awesome ... >> Hari ini keliatan susah sekali naikkin BMTR karena lumayan banyak saham >> yang beredar di publik. Kalo BHIT seenak perut dinaikkin karena yg beredar >> di publik sedikit. >> Cannot agree more yang dah profit TP di BMTR dan MNCN , sekali BHIT turun >> bisa berabe BMTR dan MNCN. >> >> Regards, >> >> Herman >> >> >> ----- Original Message ----- >> *From:* Tom DS <tom.ds.st...@gmail.com> >> *To:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com >> *Sent:* Wednesday, February 24, 2010 11:04 PM >> *Subject:* Re: [ob] MNCN >> >> >> >> >> *Yup boss...* >> ** >> *There was a concern raised by the management that the bond holder (for >> the last convertible bond of $131million) did not execute its convertible >> right due to low stock price (lower than the strike price). That's why their >> group tried hard for these few days to uplift BHIT. I think if they increase >> the price one more time will be quite enough to give room for the bond >> holder to execute its right.. and they can save cash for another purpose & >> "project".* >> ** >> *MNCN & BMTR will likely have different story and has better reason to go >> up.* >> ** >> ** >> *T.o.m* >> >> >> On 2/24/10, Oentoeng <oentoeng...@yahoo.com> wrote: >>> >>> >>> >>> Terus terang saya tdk mengikuti FA yg terjadi di Bhakti grup... >>> >>> Cuman saya ada analisa PRICE and VOLUME hari ini untuk BHIT, BMTR and >>> MNCN. >>> >>> Kenaikan BHIT 24% volumenya "cuman" 1/4 nya BMTR atau 1/2 nya MNCN. >>> Padahal BMTR cuman bertahan di kuning, MNCN malah harga merah. >>> >>> Artinya.... >>> - Ada indikasi angkat BHIT cuman buat jualan BMTR sama MNCN. >>> - Sama2 CUAN, tapi cuan terbesar (mungkin) bukan di BHIT tapi malah di >>> BMTR karena dg vol besar. >>> >>> Asumsi besok... >>> Kalau BHIT DIAM saja terus BMTR nggak naik? >>> Berarti skrg ini para trader sdh "ngeri" bermain di Bhakti grup. >>> Tapi kalau kenaikan BMTR, MNCN bisa sama atau lebih tinggi drpd BHIT. >>> Artinya grup ini masih "play"... >>> >>> Strategi begini mirip "permainan" big player saham X dg warrant-nya... >>> Lagi nge-TES aja, "ilmu tangan kosong" apakah cuman omong kosong. >>> Hehehe.... >>> >>> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com <obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>, >>> herman_mil...@... wrote: >>> > >>> > BMTR kayak main roller coster hari ini ... Takut besok BHIT longsor >>> BMTR. Untung dah take profit >>> > >>> > Powered by Telkomsel BlackBerry® >>> > >>> > -----Original Message----- >>> > From: Tom DS <tom.ds.st...@...> >>> > Date: Wed, 24 Feb 2010 15:37:28 >>> > To: <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com <obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> >>> > >>> > Subject: Re: [ob] MNCN >>> > >>> > *Actually the main reason of the recent rally in Bhakti group was only >>> due >>> > to un-executed convertible bonds. This is only for BHIT, while we will >>> have >>> > some other time in the near future for MNCN & BMTR rally. Just enjoy >>> the >>> > show.. >>> > >>> > >>> > T.o.m >>> > * >>> > 2010/2/24 charles_3983 <charles_3...@...> >>> > >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > yg pegang NCN ati2.. sepertinay ga kuat nanjak ikutin BHIT... >>> > > begitu bhakti group pada TP tinggal ikut longsorannya aja... >>> > > >>> > > disclaimer always on :) >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > >>> > >>> >>> >> > >
