soon enough 2, long 3, buy 1
highwaystar91 <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
Hehehe...ada yg bilang 6100, ada yg bilang 8200, ada yg bilang
11000...bingung deh, masing2 punya argumen sendiri.
Kita mau ikut yg mana nih? :)
--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Wandy Wiratman" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
wrote:
>
> From: Danareksa Equity Research
> Sent: Tuesday, June 19, 2007 9:51 AM
> Subject: Insight : Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ, Rp6,700,
BUY) :
> Re-rating of a distressed asset
>
>
>
> Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam
>
>
>
> Re-rating of a distressed asset
>
>
>
> Light at the end of the tunnel?
>
> The government's strong pressure on both PTBA and PTKA (the railway
> company) will likely end PTBA's railway problems. We expect total
sales
> volume to increase from 10.5mn in 2007 tons to 26.6mn tons in 2011
(26%
> CAGR). We believe that we are not aggressive in our new volume
> assumptions.
>
>
>
> FY08-09 earnings upgrades
>
> We upgrade our FY08-09 earnings forecasts by 17-44% on the back of
> higher volume and export price assumptions. We also increase our
> long-term export price on the back of strong coal market dynamics.
>
>
>
> The reserves have to be revalued
>
> PTBA is now trading a very deep discount (80%) in terms of
EV/reserves
> to BUMI. With the railway problems now likely to be resolved
faster than
> expected, we believe the huge discount is no longer justified,
providing
> room for the market to revalue the reserves at a higher valuation.
>
>
>
> A distressed asset, BUY with a new TP of Rp11,200
>
> PTBA can, in our view, be considered a "distressed" asset - and a
> potential M&A target if the government is willing to divest. Our
new
> target price of Rp11,200 is derived from an SOTP of the non-lignite
> reserves (based on EV/adjusted reserves US$4.5/ton) and the power
> projects (based on DCF), and offering 67% upside. BUY.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
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---------------------------------
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