saya melihat kenaikan minyak bumi hanya sementara, ini
disebabkan oleh kebakaran di Meksiko. Kenaikan kuota
OPEC akan secara bertahap langsung dapat menurunkan
harga minyak yang sempat tinggi.
Harga emas juga akan memasuki tren turun, menunjukkan
inflasi yg moderate dan FED masih punya ruang untuk
turun walau terbatas
yang aneh ini, harga COAL akan menjulang tapi kok
malah saham BUMI malah turun ???? tanya kenapa
Indonesian Coal Mining Shares Surge as China Exports
Decline
By Michele Batchelor
Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Coal producers in Indonesia
and Thailand are booming, and so are their shares, as
larger competitors in China turn from exporting to
supplying the domestic market.
China became a net importer of coal for the first time
this year. Japan and South Korea also are turning to
Jakarta-based PT Bumi Resources and Thailand's Banpu
Pcl, both with mines in Indonesia, the biggest source
of power-station coal.
``Coal is a very new sector and that's because of the
structural change in China,'' said Badung Tariono, who
manages the $647 million ABN Amro Energy Fund in
Amsterdam and holds Bumi shares. ``If you believe in
the China story and demand for energy will grow in
line with the economy, it's a no-brainer.''
While Bumi shares have more than tripled in value this
year, investors say there is plenty of room for
further gains because they are still cheap. Bumi,
Asia's third-largest coal producer by sales, and rival
Banpu, Thailand's biggest coal miner, are valued at
less than half the industry average.
Analysts at UBS AG estimate the shift in the Chinese
coal industry has resulted in a loss of 25 million
metric tons from the Asian market outside the country.
That's left Asian consumers short of 11 million tons,
the Swiss bank estimates.
``China's move towards net import status has occurred
much faster than expected,'' said Daniel Brebner, a
London-based commodity analyst at UBS. ``Chinese
exports, which have been declining, are unlikely to
reverse over the next 12 months.''
Taking Orders
Bumi, whose stock has soared 219 percent this year to
2,875 rupiah, has requests from Chinese buyers for 4
million tons for 2008, an increase of 83 percent from
2007 orders, Peter Ball, vice president of marketing,
said on Aug. 14. It supplied 1 million tons of coal to
China in 2006.
Banpu, which is up 65 percent this year to 300 baht,
is planning an initial public offering for its
Indonesian unit to raise funds to expand. Based in
Bangkok, it has Chinese orders for 6 million tons for
2008, more than twice what it can supply, said Philip
Gasteen, head of marketing and logistics Aug. 14.
Those contracts aren't yet reflected in the companies'
share prices, investors argue.
Bumi is valued at 12 times this year's estimated
earnings, while Banpu trades at a multiple of 14 times
earnings. Singapore- listed Straits Asia Resources
Ltd., which plans to spend as much as $400 million
buying mines to double production in Indonesia, is
trading at a ratio of 17 after doubling in value this
year. The shares are at S$1.35.
`Bullish'
They compare with the 30 times average current year
estimated earnings for 131 coal producers worldwide,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The stocks ``have been looking bullish with China
aggressively on the rise,'' said Nimeesha Takalkar, an
analyst at Bank Julius Baer & Co., which manages $350
billion worldwide. There's a ``supply-side constraint,
which has automatically made the Indonesian coal more
attractive,'' Takalkar said.
Thermal coal used for power generation accounted for
87 percent of world coal usage in 2006. Coking coal,
used in steel production, made up the rest, according
to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource
Economics.
Thermal coal is the fastest-growing energy source as
rising oil prices prompt users to switch fuels, the
U.S. Energy Information Administration said. Coal's
share of total world energy may climb to 28 percent in
2030, from 26 percent in 2004, the agency said in a
May 22 report.
Indonesia, Asia's third-largest coal producer, may
increase output by 34 percent within three years as
Chinese exports drop, Credit Suisse Group said in
August.
Following China
One risk is that Indonesia, whose population of about
235 million is roughly equal to Germany, France, the
U.K. and Spain combined, might follow China and cut
shipments as new power generators increase domestic
demand.
The government plans to add 20,000 megawatts of
generating capacity, fired by coal, by 2010. That will
add as much as 70 million tons to domestic demand
annually, according to Indonesia's national coal
association. Indonesian utilities consumed 45 million
tons of coal last year.
``Indonesia could add 15 million tons of coal to the
Asian market this year,'' said UBS analyst Brebner.
``However, it pales in comparison to the 45 million
tons or so added in 2006.''
Demand is demand, whether it comes from China,
Indonesia or other Asian markets, according to Elan
Cohen, a Singapore-based portfolio manager at JPMorgan
Private Bank, who helps manage money for clients with
at least $50 million.
``A lot of our clients have been investing in
Indonesian coal companies,'' he said ``There's a big
flow of capital going into the coal mining areas'' in
Indonesia.
`Better Story'
What's more, the valuations of Bumi, Banpu and Straits
Asia are also half those for Chinese coal producers
swept up in a rally that has more than doubled the
value of the nation's benchmark CSI 300 Index this
year. That makes those companies more attractive to
buy, said Greg Kuhnert, who manages about $1 billion
in Asian equities, at Investec Asset Management in
London.
China Shenhua Energy Co., the nation's largest, is
valued at 30 times this year's estimated earnings,
while China Coal Energy Co., the second biggest, is at
34 times.
Bumi ``is a better story and looks cheaper than the
Chinese ones,'' said Kuhnert, who bought Bumi shares
in recent months.
To contact the reporter on this story: Michele
Batchelor in Singapore at [EMAIL PROTECTED]
____________________________________________________________________________________
Pinpoint customers who are looking for what you sell.
http://searchmarketing.yahoo.com/
