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Indian Stocks, Rupee Slump; Regulator Proposes Investment Curbs

By Sam Nagarajan

Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- India's stocks tumbled, shutting down the
Bombay Stock Exchange for an hour, and the rupee fell the most in two
months after regulators proposed restrictions on investments favored
by global hedge funds.

The benchmark Sensex index dropped as much as 9.2 percent after the
Securities & Exchange Board of India said late yesterday it plans to
limit trading by investors who buy shares anonymously, using
derivatives known as participatory notes. Record share purchases had
driven the Sensex up 38 percent this year to an all-time high and
fueled a 12.5 percent gain in the rupee against the dollar.

Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram said the rules were aimed at
moderating capital inflows that fueled a ``very steep rise'' in
stocks. The central bank bought a record $39.9 billion in the eight
months through August to curb gains in the rupee that have reduced
earnings at exporters including Tata Consultancy Services Ltd., the
country's biggest software maker.

``They want to limit the rate of flow in the market, which has been
accelerating,'' said Tathagata Guha Roy, who helps manage $1 billion
for Alliance Trust Plc in Hong Kong. ``There's a lot of new, hot
money out there that's come in.''

The Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index of 30 companies, or Sensex,
fell as low as 17,307.90, before trading down 4.1 percent at
18,276.70 as of 12:20 p.m. in Mumbai. ICICI Bank Ltd., India's
biggest lender by market value, fell as much as 12.5 percent and
traded 7.6 percent lower at 1069.15 rupees. Reliance Industries Ltd.,
the nation's biggest company, dropped 3 percent to 2568 rupees,
rebounding from a 14 percent slump.

The rupee fell as much as 1.6 percent to 39.97 per dollar before
trading at 39.715, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The
currency reached 39.27 on Oct. 11, the highest since February 1998.

Slowing Flows

The planned clampdown raises concern more Asian regulators will
consider restrictions to strengthen market oversight and head off
investment bubbles that are fueling inflation. Inflation accelerated
to a two-year high in January before slowing to the lowest in almost
five years in September.

Inflows ``have become very copious,'' Chidambaram told reporters in
New Delhi. ``It is in the interest of everyone that these flows are
moderated.''

More than half of the $17 billion of the net purchases of Indian
stocks this year may have been through the use of derivatives known
as participatory notes, JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimates. The notes,
which change in value depending on the performance of the underlying
securities, provide hedge funds anonymity in their investment.

``The near-term impact to investor sentiment should be significant,''
JPMorgan's Singapore-based strategists Claudio Piron and Yen Ping Ho
wrote in a note to clients today. The ``proposed measures would
constitute restrictions on the issuance of participatory notes to
offshore investors and effectively plug an important source of equity
inflows.''

Seeking Response

The regulator suggested foreign institutional investors may not be
allowed to issue or renew offshore derivative instruments and will be
required to extinguish existing participatory notes in 18 months. It
sought a response to proposals by Oct. 20.

``The government was getting uncomfortable with the sharp run, which
was creating a bubble,'' said Jayesh Shroff, who helps manage the
equivalent of about $6.4 billion at SBI Funds Management Pvt. in
Mumbai.

India Economy

India's growth, the second-fastest among the world's 20 major
economies, is luring money from abroad. The flows accelerated after
the U.S. Federal Reserve's Sept. 18 interest rate cut prompted global
funds to chase higher returns.

The rupee's surge helped cut India's inflation rate to an annual rate
of 3.4 percent in September, from a two-year high of 6.7 percent in
January. Price increases will rebound to 5 percent by March next
year, according to the median estimate of 9 economists surveyed by
Bloomberg.

Overseas investors bought $8.2 billion more of Indian stocks than
they sold since the Fed's decision, compared with $1.4 billion in the
month preceding that, according to data provided by the Securities &
Exchange Board of India. Their net purchases this year were at a
record $17 billion.

Derivatives are contracts whose value is derived from stocks, bonds,
loans, currencies or commodities or linked to specific events such as
changes in interest rates or the weather.

``The Indian stock regulations have made people worried about how
that's going to affect the flow of money,'' said Yasuhiro Miyata, who
helps oversee the equivalent of about $17 billion in assets at DLIBJ
Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. ``If the flow of money is cut off to
the emerging markets, that's going to slow down those economies,
which is why companies dependent on those countries are taking a hit
today.''



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