TLKM dan ISAT digebuk lagi? Bukannya pengaruhnya ke IHSG besar sekali? Biarin deh, toh sekarang investor juga sudah pinter milih, IHSG gak jadi acuan pasti seperti postingan Mbah sebelumnya, IHSG sudah kurang bermakna.
Penurunan harga komunikasi tentu lebih memberikan pengaruh ke ekonomi real daripada kenaikan harga TLKM. Turunin terus biaya komunikasi, makin banyak orang mampu mengakses informasi, perdagangan makin mudah, makin mudah juga orang online trading ke bursa, semua diuntungkan. On Nov 28, 2007 12:01 AM, James Liem <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Following the stock rating downgrade on PT Telkom & Indosat last week, > today we > > downgraded telecom sector to Underweight from Overweight, within > Indonesia > > equity context. > > > > Our sector downgrade is justified by the limited upside potential the > stocks offer > > to their estimated DCF values, higher earnings risks seen for 2008 and > unsupportive > > news flow on the regulatory front. Nevertheless, Indosat remains our > preferred > > holding within the sector. > > > > *** Signs of intensifying pressure on mobile tariffs *** > > Telkomsel, Indosat and Excelcomindo saw their aggregate revenue per > minute-of-use > > (MOU) decline by 8% QoQ in 3Q07, the largest sequential drop in six > quarters. > > So far, the tariff erosion has been offset by rising usage. But since > the downtrend > > could continue or become even steeper in the next two quarters, the > risk of an > > industry-wide earnings shortfall has increased, in our view. > > > > *** Reserve weapons unleashed *** > > On 23 November, Indosat re-launched its fixed wireless access (FWA) > CDMA brand, > > StarOne, after a period of inactivity. Prepaid StarOne subscribers were > given up to > > one hour of free calls daily within the StarOne network for > Rp25,000/month. The next > > day, Hutchison Indonesia, a 3G GSM provider, responded with Rp1/minute > call tariff > > within its network between 1am and 1pm. > > > > *** Response by other operators could trigger domino effect *** > > Hutchison's Rp1/minute call tariff is a direct challenge to the > Rp1/second promotion > > campaign by Excelcomindo. The StarOne offer is a direct challenge to > the "talk-time" > > concept emphasized by Bakrie Telecom. Responses by any of these > operators may > > trigger a domino effect that could lower industry profitability, at > least in the short term, > > in our view. > > > > *** Interconnection rate: Another round of tariff cuts in 1Q08 *** > > In 1Q08, the Indonesian telecom regulator may issue a new > interconnection regime > > that we believe could trigger another round of mobile tariff cuts. > Mobile operators > > may earn 50% less revenue from incoming calls, adding pressure to > revenue per MOU. > > > > *** KPPU ruling an extra burden on share prices *** > > We recently downgraded our stock rating on Telkom and Indosat after > Indonesia's > > anti-trust commission (KPPU) ruled that Telkomsel and Indosat were > involved in > > price-fixing. The commission ordered Telkomsel to cut its mobile > tariffs by at least 15%. > > These rulings will not have punitive power until endorsed by the > district courts. > > > > Regards > > ------------------------------ > Be a better sports nut! Let your teams follow you with Yahoo Mobile. Try > it > now.<http://us.rd.yahoo.com/evt=51731/*http://mobile.yahoo.com/sports;_ylt=At9_qDKvtAbMuh1G1SQtBI7ntAcJ%0A> > >
