"ANTM *is* the most expensive mining stock in our universe and trades at a 28% and 151% premium to our global nickel peers' *2008 P/E of 10.7x* and our 2008E NPV, respectively. In comparison, other nickel stocks like Minara and PT Inco trade at premiums of 39% and 23%, respectively, to their base-case NPVs," said Daisy Suryo of ML last Dec 7th.
Now let's do a simple visit to our lovely REUTERS and check ANTM's ratios compared to it's peer around the small globe called earth: http://stocks.us.reuters.com/stocks/ratios.asp?symbol=ANTM.JK&WTmodLOC=R2-Ratios-1-More With the below table, how can ML say that ANTM IS the most expensive mining stock in their universe? It currently trades at 1/6 of the industry, 3/5 of the sector and 1/2 of the S&P500 average! So, which universe is ML talking about? How can it trade at premium while its PER *IS* well below the industry and sector? Even if the 2008 PER will be 10.7, ANTM is still underaverage. Which premium that I'm missing? If 2008 ML is predicting that Industry's PER will be down to 10.7x from currently 15.67x (that's a 30% decrease), while they're raising the nickel and gold prices only by 12%, it means they also predict that the price of the stock will decrease by 25%. But why would there be a price decline if there would be earning increase? Once again, which universe is ML talking about and how big is ML's universe? Salam, Barkah TTM = Trailing Twelve Months Valuation Ratios Company Industry Sector S&P 500 P/E Ratio (TTM) 9.6960.8615.6720.84 P/E High - Last 5 Yrs. NM75.3944.0332.48 P/E Low - Last 5 Yrs. NM20.9910.7314.00 Beta 1.270.520.851.00 Price to Sales (TTM) 4.23 6.754.283.02 Price to Book (MRQ) 5.944.176.004.38 Price to Tangible Book (MRQ) 6.384.616.008.90 Price to Cash Flow (TTM) 8.6720.8915.8015.11 Price to Free Cash Flow (TTM) 9.2641.1517.4732.07 % Owned Institutions NM14.4737.28 71.16 Learn about Valuation Ratios<http://www.investor.reuters.com/GoTo.aspx?.m=%2fstocks%2ffinancialinfo%2fratios%2fvaluation&.p=learn&ticker=ANTM.JK&.t=%2f> Dividends Company Industry Sector S&P 500 Dividend Yield NM0.792.192.21 Dividend Yield - 5 Year Avg. --0.452.101.83 Dividend 5 Year Growth Rate 8.3627.26 52.3411.41 Payout Ratio (TTM) 13.583.3433.1928.28 Learn about Dividends<http://www.investor.reuters.com/GoTo.aspx?.m=%2fstocks%2ffinancialinfo%2fratios%2fdividend&.p=learn&ticker=ANTM.JK&.t=%2f> Growth Rates Company Industry Sector S&P 500 Sales (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 73.96 41.3173.4014.94 Sales (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 134.7314.59104.2614.77 Sales - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 26.5422.0026.7614.70 EPS (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 226.27- 43.36209.3211.24 EPS (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 386.91-48.50355.1315.04 EPS - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 34.0939.4382.8723.45 Capital Spending - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 12.0633.3229.1010.12 Learn about Growth Rates<http://www.investor.reuters.com/GoTo.aspx?.m=%2fstocks%2ffinancialinfo%2fratios%2fgrowthrate&.p=learn&ticker=ANTM.JK&.t=%2f> Financial Strength Company Industry Sector S&P 500 Quick Ratio (MRQ) 2.823.042.741.25 Current Ratio (MRQ) 3.643.813.261.75 LT Debt to Equity (MRQ) 0.110.270.140.56 Total Debt to Equity (MRQ) 0.140.300.220.72 Interest Coverage (TTM) NM-10.73105.34 13.35 Learn about Financial Strength<http://www.investor.reuters.com/GoTo.aspx?.m=%2fstocks%2ffinancialinfo%2fratios%2ffinancialcondition&.p=learn&ticker=ANTM.JK&.t=%2f> Profitability Ratios Company Industry Sector S&P 500 Gross Margin (TTM) 63.7047.8856.04 45.03 Gross Margin - 5 Yr. Avg. 42.4949.0639.2944.27 EBITD Margin (TTM) 64.3827.8743.7323.37 EBITD - 5 Yr. Avg. 40.7927.9340.0121.65 Operating Margin (TTM) 59.2416.1650.7019.49 Operating Margin - 5 Yr. Avg. 33.9719.77 32.2219.15 Pre-Tax Margin (TTM) 62.0416.0451.6718.43 Pre-Tax Margin - 5 Yr. Avg. 33.0422.8530.5118.06 Net Profit Margin (TTM) 43.5812.0235.7713.36 Net Profit Margin - 5 Yr. Avg. 23.1517.0820.5812.48 Effective Tax Rate (TTM) 29.7525.9938.0330.05 Effective Tax Rate - 5 Yr. Avg. 29.9223.9831.8230.98 Learn about Profitability Ratios<http://www.investor.reuters.com/GoTo.aspx?.m=%2fstocks%2ffinancialinfo%2fratios%2fprofitmargin&.p=learn&ticker=ANTM.JK&.t=%2f> Management Effectiveness Company Industry Sector S&P 500 Return On Assets (TTM) 51.953.34 41.748.71 Return On Assets - 5 Yr. Avg. 14.901.7613.447.47 Return On Investment (TTM) 61.103.8350.1212.73 Return On Investment - 5 Yr. Avg. 17.32 1.9616.0611.11 Return On Equity (TTM) 83.192.5757.6321.59 Return On Equity - 5 Yr. Avg. 29.990.2321.5418.93 Learn about Management Effectiveness<http://www.investor.reuters.com/GoTo.aspx?.m=%2fstocks%2ffinancialinfo%2fratios%2fmgteffectiveness&.p=learn&ticker=ANTM.JK&.t=%2f> Efficiency Company Industry Sector S&P 500 Revenue/Employee (TTM) 3,818,760,000446,2063,824,549,278921,678 Net Income/Employee (TTM) 1,664,387,00085,1311,822,872,732116,248 Receivable Turnover (TTM) 11.88 15.6426.4010.51 Inventory Turnover (TTM) 3.337.686.3712.14 Asset Turnover (TTM) 1.190.361.160.97 Learn about Efficiency<http://www.investor.reuters.com/GoTo.aspx?.m=%2fstocks%2ffinancialinfo%2fratios%2fefficiency&.p=learn&ticker=ANTM.JK&.t=%2f>
