--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Kalyana Mitta <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > Spot the similarities. A caricature of Mama Laurent, from Indo leading national newspaper, Kompas, January 5, 2008 (left) and our photo taken just the day before (right). > > In a market with rising retail participation, what Mama Laurent says has an impact on the local stock market. As such, our analyst Hadi and I decided to meet Mama Laurent to find out about what she is telling investors. > Overall, Mama Laurent forecasts that 2008 is not a bad year but not a great year either. She told her clients to look for the perfect rat hole (opportunity) that will lead to prosperity. > On Indo political front, Mama Laurent sees a serious political challenger to President SBY. The candidate has a military background. > The best sector for this year, in her view, is automotive. Telcos and consumers will also do OK. She advised her clients to take profit on mining (especially coal) and property sector. Please bear in mind that coal, oil, and property are CLSA sales team's top picks this year!! > In her view, the business groups that will do great this year include Bakrie and Artha Graha group. > Another thing that we found out from the meeting was that she does not follow soccer. So, don't ask her who will win the Euro 2008. > We'll write more about this later on of the week. > > Research Today (attached): > > Indonesia strategy: Mostly Sunny (from Nick Cashmore) > Despite rain clouds in the global economy, the sun continues to shine on Indonesia. Barring a sudden retracement in commodity prices, Indonesia's economy looks set to expand at its fastest clip in a decade. Commodities will be the main driver, as they have been for the past five years; investment will also help. Government policy will also be mildly supportive through greater infrastructure spending though more ambitious reform looks off the cards. With 28% ROE, 24% forecast earnings growth and 12.3x 2009 earnings our new JCI forecast of 3,300 offers 25% upside. > Resources stocks now account for 30% of market cap (up from 5% five years ago). Indonesia is a significant player in coal, CPO, rubber, timber, nickel, bauxite and tin. While we are cautious on base metals the outlook for soft commodities and energy looks very good. This underpins a strong macro economic picture with falling leverage. However, there are some reasons to be cautious: inflation is uncomfortably high (despite govt targets), global risk tolerance may change and PE multiples probably have limited upside form here. > Stocks to hold include: > > · Bank Rakyat (BBRI IJ - Rp7,500 - BUY) is Asia's most profitable bank and has the best strategic position among Indonesian banks, with an unparalleled deposit franchise translating into superior returns. An increasing share of micro deposits, accelerating loan growth and lower provisions are key drivers. It also has among the best exposure to the provinces where growth is fastest. > · Indocement (INTP IJ - Rp8,050 - BUY) is Indonesia's largest cement producer by capacity remains a conviction stock for 2008. After meeting management we have modestly revised up our earnings for next year and now forecast 46% earnings growth until 2010. Interest rates will remain lower than longer, boosting housing construction and infrastructure development is on the horizon. The company is also adding another 3m tonnes to existing capacity by 2010 in order to meet demand. > · Despite a phenomenal performance this year Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ -Rp6,350 - BUY) remains a conviction idea for 2008. The global rise in energy costs is boosting demand for coal and supply chains are stretched. We are revising up our thermal coal price forecasts leading to substantial earnings revisions. Meanwhile, the group's diversification strategy is also coming together with more deals expected. Last, given size and liquidity we believe the company now deserves to trade on international peers. > · Astra (ASII IJ - Rp26,400 - BUY) continues to gain momentum and we expect 2008 to be another good year as both motorcycle and car sales are set to move higher, which will eventually lead to recovery in its auto financing business. Key triggers in 2008 will be 1) interest rate and currency as government have to deal with rising oil price 2) success rate of Astra Honda new products line up 3) CPO price as Astra Agro now accounts for 21% of group earnings. > · As Indonesia's dominant gas distribution company, Perusahaan Gas (PGAS IJ - Rp15,300 - O-PF) is a key beneficiary of rising gas demand and prices. Its new SSWJ expansion pipeline offers volume and margin growth as operations are ramped up. The company has been dogged by execution problems but these are now largely behind the group and as confidence improves so will the company's stock price. This is a long-term story, driven by fledgling domestic gas usage with considerable pricing upside. > · Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ - Rp870 - O-PF) is one of the country's largest landowners and a prime beneficiary of pending asset reflation. The group controls a land bank in Jakarta, Surabaya and Kalimantan that exceeds 2,100ha. Most of this is focused on residential exposure to the middle-to low income segment, making the group highly leveraged to housing demand. > > Mining strategy Indonesia: (from Andrew Driscoll) > The coal plays remains our preferred exposure to the resources sector. A strong pricing outlook is supported by tight supply-side dynamics, while market segmentation reduces the impact of a US slowdown. Base metal equities have corrected on weakening global growth expectations. We remain generally cautious, but trading opportunities will emerge. M&A activity is set to continue, which will contribute to commodity asset price inflation, and support equity valuations. However, returns are likely to be more subdued after this years' valuation re-rating. Stock pickers will win, and our top are picks Bumi Resources and Yanzhou Coal. > Indonesia: > Despite a phenomenal performance this year Bumi remains our conviction resources idea for 2008. The global rise in energy costs is boosting demand for coal and supply chains are stretched. Bumi offers strong production growth and significant coal price leverage. Meanwhile, the group's diversification strategy is also coming together with more deals expected. > Amongst the nickel plays we prefer Antam to Inco, but are concerned with the relative out performance of equities versus the underlying nickel prices. This is part due to sector M&A, and we are mindful that neither Inco nor Antam are targets. Valuations are reasonable, but we forecast declining earnings next year due to nickel prices. > Economic release this week: > > Bank Indonesia will convene tomorrow to make decision on interest rate. The consensus is that rate will stay at 8%, after the release of higher than expected inflation numbers last week. > 2007 car sales up 35.8%. Total car sales for 2007 were 35.8% higher than in 2006 (compare this to motorcycle sales which were only 6% higher). Total unit sales were 432k in 07 v.s. 318k in 06. The numbers were also some 13% higher than the industry association's target. Dec 07 car sales were 37k units, +18.6% YoY and -19% MoM. These are unofficial figures. The CEO of Toyota Astra Motor predicted that 1Q08 can be weaker than 1Q07, after a very strong 4Q07. However, the industry is optimistic that total car sales for 08 will exceed 500k units. > > Breaktrough on toll road, by Hadi Susilo > > Last Friday the government again showed continuous improvement to speed up toll road projects by issuing new policy; the Land Capping. > > This Land Capping policy is considered as a breakthrough as the Government is prepared to accept more of the burden therefore giving more assurance to toll road investors. In the meeting led by Vice President Jusuf Kala, it was decided that government will pay the excess of land acquisition cost if it goes more than 110% of estimated land price or 2% of total investment cost. > > We are expecting significant land acquisition progress in 2008. The two listed companies Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ - Rp1,930 - NR) and Citra Marge (CMNP IJ - Rp2,300 - NR) shall be among the first toll road concession holders to benefit. > > News Headlines/Others: > > The govt will sell stakes in Bank Negara (BBNI IJ). The govt is planning to sell 3.1% stakes in BBNI. The stakes come from a green shoe option. BBNI is also planning to issue new shares, about 6.9% of the total outstanding shares. This is quite a surprise since BBNI stake sale was not part of the govt's privatization plan for 08. Previously, IFC is said to be keen to buy the govt's 3.1% green shoe stake in BBNI. Minister of SOE has mentioned that the govt will do the placement through a tender process, with 3-4 tender participants. The tender winner will be allowed to place a director at BBNI. > Singtel outlined the main basis of its objection to the KPPU decision. Singtel said that the KPPU decision is not supported by adequate evidence and argues that the KPPU is trying to impose sanctions beyond its jurisdiction as it has no power to order divestment in this case. SingTel filed an appeal with the District Court of Central Jakarta on 19 December 2007 to dismiss the decision of the Indo anti monopoly agency KPPU. Singtel owns 35% of TLKM's mobile subsidiary Telkomsel. > > Excelcomindo (EXCL IJ) plans to spend US$650mn in capex this year. Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) will finance US$450mn of EXCL's capex plan. Most of the money will be used to build BTS (plan: +2k BTS in 08). Currently EXCL has 9,947 BTS across the country. As of Dec 07, EXCL has 15mn subscribers. > > Companies eye coal-bed methane (CBM) projects in Indonesia. 50 Indonesian companies, including Shell, Pertamina, and Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ) have submitted the proposals to the govt to do CBM projects in Indonesia. The govt is confident that they could rake in up to US$2.5bn in investment to develop 90 CBM wells in Indonesia, to produce up to 100mn cubic feet of gas/day by 2014. > > Pertamina's subsidiary Elnusa set to launch IPO by end of Jan 08. Elnusa is in oil service business. The plan is to IPO 20% of the new shares, and the proceeds are expected to contribute up to 45% of the company's planned capex of US$100mn. Elnusa is currently 51.33% owned by state owned oil company Pertamina. After the IPO, Pertamin's shares in Elnusa will be reduced to 41.1%. > > Mud barriers collapse in East Java, forcing hundreds to flee in panic. This is the mud flow that is linked to Lapindo Brantas' drilling activities. It started in May 2006 and no sign of stopping. So far, all efforts to stop the flow have failed. The collapsed embarkment has caused mud to flow into the area, paralysing the nearby railway track and road transportation. > > The govt has not decided the gas formula. The govt prefers to postpone announcing the gas price formula as current gas price is very high and the govt does not want to use current global price as a reference. Previously, Perusahaan Gas (PGAS IJ) CEO Sutikno expected the govt to announce the gas price formula by end of 2007. The formula will be used as a basis to increase gas prices going forward. Delay is not good as it means uncertainties. > > The govt will convert Perusahaan Gas (PGAS IJ) debt into shares. The govt will convert Rp127bn (US$13mn) of pre IPO debt owed by PGAS into shares in the first quarter of the year. The debt will be converted to 254mn shares, which is equivalent to 5.6% stake in PGAS. The ministry for SOE said that they are not planning to divest more shares in PGAS, even with the latest addition from debt conversion. > Citra Marga (CMNPIJ) subsidiary Citra Metro Manila Skyways obtain US$120mn loan from banks. The loan will be used to finance second phase of US$185mn toll road project. > Bakrie Brothers(BNBR IJ): local media talking up the stock, mentioning investors from Abu Dhabi and Quatar looking to acquire a very large stake at 325/sh. Maybe tied in with current rumors of a planned rights issue? All rumors, but no details for now. > > Politics: Golkar asked the govt to end the legal process against 86 year old ex President Suharto. Golkar is the biggest political party in the parliament, contolling 23.3% seats. Suharto was rushed to Pertamina Hospital on Friday after suffering from anemia and a severe edema. > Key Indicators: > > JCI: 2,765.19, YTD: +0.71% > > > ADR: > TLKM US$41.86 = IDR9,889.95 > ISAT US$45.32 = IDR8,565 > > This week is a short week, with only 3 working days. Indo market will be closed on Thursday and Friday for Islamic New Year. > > There is a certain amount of nervousness in markets at the moment. Friday's rally was short lived and there will be some selling today. However, the resource names remain attractive to investors and investors are continuing to move into energy and soft commodities. Increasingly CPO prices are linked to CPO prices and high oil prices lead to higher CPO prices. Indonesia is the world's largest CPO producer, and linked stocks are doing well. This includes Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP) as well as a number of local names. The major risk in Indonesia at the moment seems to be the Rupiah. It is again flirting with the 9,500 level, a level seen as important in terms of importing inflation. With high oil prices and a weak Rupiah there appears to be little room for Bank Indonesia to cut interest rates in the short term. > > > Best regards, > Wuddy Warsono, CFA > CLSA Indonesia | Institutional Sales > Phone: (62-21) 573 9460 > HP: (62) 816 78 6352 > Fax: (62-21) 574 6923 > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Send instant messages to your online friends http://uk.messenger.yahoo.com >
SIP : TBUMI Dalam hidup ini janganlah percaya dengan segala macam lamaran. Bila omongan sang pelamar tsb jitu, tentu yg bersangkutan akan menjadi orang terkaya di dunia dan tak usah jadi pelamar lagi. Hanya org yg stress baru pergi mencari pelamar karena sdh tak percaya dgn kemampuan diri sendiri. Carilah TUHAN dan bukanlah pelamar dari mana saja.
