Harga2 CPOs masih naek2 - krn : o Harga kedele + minyak goreng yg naek2 (efek substitusi/komplementer) o Kebon kelapa sawit di Malaysia kena2 banjir
Laen2 menjadi tambahan - spt biasa permintaan China, India, dll > TERLAMPAU MURAH, ANALISIS GW MALAH TIDAK TERTUTUP KEMUNGKINAN CPO BAKAL > TEMBUS RM 4RIBU/TON DALAM WAKTU 3 BULAN KEDEPAN, DIPENGARUHI OLEH POTENSI > TURUNNYA PRODUKSI APALAGI ADANYA GEJALA PEMANASAN GLOBAL YG MENYEBABKAN > TINGGINYA PROSENTASI GAGAL PANEN PADA KEBON SAWIT DI INDO DAN MALAYSIA, > BILA > HAL INI BENAR TERJADI HARGA RM 5 RIBU/TON MENJADI HARGA YG BAKAL TERCAPAI. > MEMANG KEJAM SIH BAGI WARGA MISKIN DI INDO, TAPI ITULAH RESIKO BILA > EKONOMI > DISERAHKAN KE PASAR. > > 2008/1/21, Dean Earwicker <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>: >> >> Grafik >> CPO<http://ifs.marketcenter.com/charts/charts.jsp?cID=AGMAS&iFSsymbols=MPO+F8-BMD&iFScompareTo=&iFSperiod=D&iFSvminutes=&iFSchartsize=800x550&iFSbardensity=LOW&iFSbartype=CANDLE&iFSstudies=&iFSohlc=true%255d> >> >> Regards, >> DE >> >> On Jan 21, 2008 9:07 AM, Hendra Susanto <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >> wrote: >> >> > >> > >> > *Palm oil sector outlook: Conditions ripening - Upgrade CPO forecasts >> > (attached)* >> > >> > >> > *We have upgraded our CPO price forecasts from RM3,000/t to RM3,400/t, >> > or 13%, for 2008 and 2009. This isslightly above current prices >> RM3,280 and >> > consensus (RM2,750/t). * >> > >> > *Rightly so, I am convinced that this is the year for soft >> commodities. >> > Analayst on the street will have to be in the catch up game on >> upgrading >> > their assumotions like we have seen in coal and base metals 12-24 >> months >> > ago. Soft commodites like CPO is still a massive underperformer to >> oil and >> > base metals. When inventory reach critically low levels like we see >> now >> > (like base metals 18-24 months ago, note countries like China, Russia, >> > Agentina are not imposing either export quota and tariffs) prices is >> > unlikely just to double. Triple and quadtriple is more likely. >> Earning of >> > producers is highly highly leveraged to price. * >> > >> > >> > Ialso raised the rubber price assumption by similar percentage of >> 13.3%to US$2.8 cents. >> > >> > *Indonesian listed plantation* >> > >> > Following CLSA house view of higher CPO price of RM3,400 (vs. >> previously >> > RM3,000), we have upgraded our earnings of Astra Agro by 19%, Lonsum >> (23%), >> > and Bakrie Sumatera (31%). This reflects the earnings sensitivity to >> the >> > underlying commodities as we raised our CPO price and rubber price >> > assumption by 13.3% >> > >> > Indonesian listed plantation companies are largely upstream plantation >> > with minimal exposure in refinery and oleo chemical except Smart that >> has >> > large 850k tons refinery/cooking oil facilities. Earnings sensitivity >> to >> > every 10% increase in both palm oil and rubber price is 15% in Astra >> Agro, >> > 17% in Lonsum, and 24% in Bakrie Sumatera. >> > >> > *We continue to prefer Lonsum and BSumatera that trades at 35% >> discount >> > to Astra Agro on EV per planted hectare valuation. We have raised our >> target >> > price to reflect CLSA bullish view on CPO and soft commodities in >> general. >> > * >> > >> > *New target price for Astra Agro is Rp33,000 (up from Rp25,000), >> Lonsum >> > is Rp19,000 (Rp14,000), and Bakrie Sumatera Rp3,200 (Rp2,650).* >> > >> > >> > Best regards, >> > *Wuddy Warsono, CFA* >> > CLSA Indonesia | Institutional Sales >> > Phone: (62-21) 573 9460 >> > HP: (62) 816 78 6352 >> > Fax: (62-21) 574 6923* >> > [EMAIL PROTECTED] >> > >> > ------------------------------------------------------------- >> > >> > *CLSA CLEAN & GREEN: Please consider our environment before printing >> > this Email* >> > >> > The content of this communication is subject to CLSA Legal and >> > Regulatory Notices, which can be viewed at >> > https://www.clsa.com/disclaimer.html or sent to you upon request. >> > >> > >> >> >
