Berita2 di bloomberg.com serem2.. On Jan 28, 2008 2:52 PM, sulistyo_winarto <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> *Wall St Week Ahead: Fed rate cut, jobs data may lift stocks* > > Fri Jan 25, 2008 6:35pm EST > > * * > > > > By Cal Mankowski > > NEW YORK, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Wall Street may put the brakes on a steep > decline next week, when a rate cut is anticipated from the Fed, and Friday's > monthly jobs data may trigger a comeback for stocks after their January > funk. > > Even after this week's two-day rally, stocks *finished Friday in the red*and > remain down sharply for the year so far. The Dow is down 8 percent, the > S&P 500 is down 9.4 percent and the Nasdaq is down 12.3 percent. > > The Federal Reserve's meeting is expected to result in a reduction of *50 > basis points* in the fed funds rate, now down to 3.5 percent. > > The central bank's announcement will come only eight days after the Fed > took emergency action on Tuesday and cut rates by 75 basis points. The move > was surprising -- not only for its size -- but also because it came outside > of a scheduled policy meeting. The Fed acted as stocks were falling > worldwide and about an hour before the U.S. market opened on Tuesday after > a three-day holiday. > > The Federal Open Market Committee's announcement is expected on *Wednesday > *, at the conclusion of a two-day meeting. > > John Praveen, chief investment strategist for Prudential International > Investments Advisers LLC in Newark, New Jersey, said investors will study > the wording of the Fed's announcement. Indications that further rate cuts > are possible will cheer the markets, while signs of future restraint or a > "wait- and-see" attitude would be disappointing, he said. > > But the Fed will not be the only game in town next week. > > A blizzard of economic reports, including data that may show contraction > in fourth-quarter gross domestic product, and quarterly earnings from > several Dow components, as well as a major speech by the president, will > compete with the Fed and the jobs data for investors' attention. > > TUNING IN TO THE PRESIDENT > > On Monday evening, President Bush will elaborate on his views of the U.S. > economy in his annual State of the Union address. > > Investors on Wall Street and Main Street are likely to pay more attention > than usual to the president's remarks following this week's decision on a > tax-rebate plan. > > On Thursday, President Bush and congressional leaders agreed on a $150 > billion fiscal stimulus package that would include tax rebates for > individuals and families. > > The plan awaits formal action by Congress. > > News of the tax-rebate plan helped stocks extend Wednesday's rally, a day > after the Fed's emergency rate cut, into sharp gains on Thursday. > > Discussions on shoring up the finances of the "monoline" insurers -- > companies that insure trillions of dollars of bonds -- also seemed to soothe > frazzled investors' nerves. > > "I think we got relief to some extent as a result of what the Fed did, as > well as the talks around the monoline insurers and the stimulus package," > said David Joy, chief market strategist for RiverSource Investments in > Minneapolis. "All three provided some relief from the excessive fears of an > economic meltdown." > > For the past week, the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI rose 0.9 percent > and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX gained 0.4 percent. The Nasdaq > Composite Index > .IXIC<http://www.reuters.com/finance/markets/index?symbol=us%21comp>fell > 0.6 percent. > > WANTED: MORE JOBS > > While Wall Street will have a *heavy load of economic numbers* to consider > next week, one that stands out is the report on January nonfarm payrolls, > due on Friday. > > "If it shows that the December report was an aberration, then the market > could derive some real strength from that," Joy said. > > In a Reuters poll of economists, the median forecast is for January > payroll growth of 63,000 jobs, and an unemployment rate of 5.0 percent. > > The December report showed a meager 18,000 new jobs and the jobless rate > rising to 5.0 percent from 4.7 percent, the biggest increase in the rate > since 2001. > > Friday's agenda of economic data includes the Institute for Supply > Management's report on factory activity in January. > > The ISM's December report was another shocker, with the manufacturing > index falling to 47.7, the weakest reading since April 2003. The drop put > the index below 50, a zone that indicates contraction rather than growth. > > In the Reuters survey, the index is seen slipping to 47.3. > > If the ISM figures and the payroll data together show improvement from > December, a big boost in confidence is likely. But if the numbers turn out > disappointing, it could be unsettling. > > While Friday's economic reports are major hurdles for the stock market, > the week's data includes *new home sales on Monday, durable goods orders > and housing prices* on Tuesday, and the first look at the economy's pace, > as measured by gross domestic product, in the fourth quarter, due on > Wednesday. > > The poll shows economists anticipating that the economy grew at an *annual > pace of 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter *-- much slower than in the > third quarter. > > A report on personal income and spending is due on Thursday, and several > polls on consumer attitudes' are also on the economic calendar for the week. > > For a complete list of the week's U.S. economic releases and forecasts, > see [ECI/US]. > > EARNINGS GALORE > > As if a Fed meeting and a slew of data are not enough, Wall Street is > still in the midst of a quarterly earning season. > > With about one-third of S&P 500 companies having reported quarterly > results already, earnings per shares on average are *25.6 percent* below > Wall Street expectations, according to the latest Reuters Estimates > scorecard released Thursday night. > > Revenues are 4.1 percent below expectations on average. > > This compares with a year ago, when average EPS beat Wall Street's > expectations by roughly 3 percent. > > American Express Co (AXP.N: > Quote<http://www.reuters.com/stocks/quote?symbol=AXP.N>, > Profile <http://www.reuters.com/stocks/companyProfile?symbol=AXP.N>, > Research <http://www.reuters.com/stocks/researchReports?symbol=AXP.N>) and > McDonald's Corp (MCD.N: > Quote<http://www.reuters.com/stocks/quote?symbol=MCD.N>, > Profile <http://www.reuters.com/stocks/companyProfile?symbol=MCD.N>, > Research <http://www.reuters.com/stocks/researchReports?symbol=MCD.N>) > report on Monday. Boeing Co (BA.N: > Quote<http://www.reuters.com/stocks/quote?symbol=BA.N>, > Profile <http://www.reuters.com/stocks/companyProfile?symbol=BA.N>, > Research <http://www.reuters.com/stocks/researchReports?symbol=BA.N>) is > due on Wednesday and Procter & Gamble (PG.N: > Quote<http://www.reuters.com/stocks/quote?symbol=PG.N>, > Profile <http://www.reuters.com/stocks/companyProfile?symbol=PG.N>, > Research <http://www.reuters.com/stocks/researchReports?symbol=PG.N>) > reports on Thursday. A number of pharmaceutical companies will be reporting > quarterly results, among them Merck & Co Inc (MRK.N: > Quote<http://www.reuters.com/stocks/quote?symbol=MRK.N>, > Profile <http://www.reuters.com/stocks/companyProfile?symbol=MRK.N>, > Research <http://www.reuters.com/stocks/researchReports?symbol=MRK.N>) on > Wednesday. All are Dow components. > > Pulte Homes Inc (PHM.N: > Quote<http://www.reuters.com/stocks/quote?symbol=PHM.N>, > Profile <http://www.reuters.com/stocks/companyProfile?symbol=PHM.N>, > Research <http://www.reuters.com/stocks/researchReports?symbol=PHM.N>) > reports results on Wednesday. Home builders have been major casualties of > the subprime mortgage bust, but the stocks lately have moved up from their > lows. On Thursday, brokerage Raymond James raised its ratings on a number of > the home builders, including Pulte. > > According to data from Reuters Estimates on Jan. 21, fourth-quarter > earnings for S&P 500 companies were projected to decline 10.9 percent from > a year earlier. The report included companies that reported results and > estimates for those yet to report. > > Praveen noted that by taking out the earnings of financial companies, > skewed by enormous losses at some institutions, earnings for all other > companies, in aggregate, should be positive. > > "If earnings outside of financials are up around 5 percent, the market > will be satisfied," Praveen said. "Given the gloom and doom we are in right > now, that kind of number is probably going to be seen as a relief." > > Mike Binger, portfolio manager at Thrivent Financial in Minneapolis, said, > "I think the combination of the big rate cut, the stimulus package and some > good corporate earnings are kind of proving to people we're not falling off > a cliff." > > Binger expects continued market volatility, but he thinks financial stocks > and technology issues could be bought on the dips. He thinks retailers, > another beaten-up sector, may also be worth buying on declines. > > (Wall St Week Ahead runs weekly. Questions or comments on this column can > be e-mailed to: cal.mankowski(at)reuters.com) (Additional reporting by > Jennifer Coogan and Caroline Valetkevith; Editing by Jan Paschal) > >
