Pak james, harga ini adalah harga spot, bukan harga kontrak. Skrg dihitung saja berapa persen produksi BUMI yg dijual ke spot market dan berapa persen yg dijual ke kontrak. Kalau harga kontrak, harganya sulit mengalami perubahan dan hanya berkisar 30-40 USD/ton
On Feb 1, 2008 9:58 AM, James Liem <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Pada 28 Nov 2007, UBS mengeluarkan target price baru utk BUMI yaitu Rp > 11,500/sh dengan mengasumsikan harga batubara pada US$ 90/tonne di > tahun > 2008. > > UBS global analyst baru saja menaikkan target harga batubara mereka utk > tahun 2008 yaitu menjadi US$ 100/tonne atau kenaikan 11% dari yg > sebelumnya. > > Andreas Bokkenhauser pasti sedang melakukan revisi angka utk mencakup > asumsi harga jual batubara terbaru. > > > THERMAL COAL. > ============= > NEW OLD %CHANGE. > --- --- -------- > 2008E US$100/t US$ 90/t +11%. > 2009E US$125/t US$105/t +19%. > > COKING COAL. > ============ > NEW OLD %CHANGE. > --- --- -------- > 2008E US$170/t US$145/t +17%. > 2009E US$165/t US$135/t +22%. > > Dan Brebner (global Bulks analyst) in the Commodity Compass upgraded > their f'cast for the sector again due to: > > (1) Supply side difficulties: > + infrastructure limitations in China. > + weather <<QHDvs.NCS new.xls>> <<Coal valuation 31Jan08.xls>> > related setbacks in China and Australia (BHP says delay could last 6 > mths). > + major power shortages in South Africa. > > (2) Demand is more inelastic than ever. > > BUY: BUMI Resources, Straits Asis Resources, Vale (CVRD), Rio Tinto, > Alpha Natural Resources. > > Coal price has reached record highs at US$93.35/t in Newcastle and > around US$76.7/t in Qinhuangdao, driven by the flooding in Australia > and > the snow storm which caused transportation difficulties and power > shortage in China. > > Chinese government has ordered a suspension of coal exports last week. > The blackouts have extended to 17 provinces and the government has > urged > to conserve power. > > ATTACHED: Coal valuation comps, latest coal price chart and Commodity > Compass. > > I am sure Andreas (Indo coal analyst) is working through his models > using the new coal f'casts. > > Best, > Bernard. > > ------------------------------ > Looking for last minute shopping deals? Find them fast with Yahoo! > Search.<http://us.rd.yahoo.com/evt=51734/*http://tools.search.yahoo.com/newsearch/category.php?category=shopping> > >
