Saya denger di Bloomberg - Rusia jg ikutan2 mengurangi ekspor coal-nya Happy chuan,
Aria > Pada 28 Nov 2007, UBS mengeluarkan target price baru utk BUMI yaitu Rp > 11,500/sh dengan mengasumsikan harga batubara pada US$ 90/tonne di > tahun > 2008. > > UBS global analyst baru saja menaikkan target harga batubara mereka utk > tahun 2008 yaitu menjadi US$ 100/tonne atau kenaikan 11% dari yg > sebelumnya. > > Andreas Bokkenhauser pasti sedang melakukan revisi angka utk mencakup > asumsi harga jual batubara terbaru. > > > THERMAL COAL. > ============= > NEW OLD %CHANGE. > --- --- -------- > 2008E US$100/t US$ 90/t +11%. > 2009E US$125/t US$105/t +19%. > > COKING COAL. > ============ > NEW OLD %CHANGE. > --- --- -------- > 2008E US$170/t US$145/t +17%. > 2009E US$165/t US$135/t +22%. > > Dan Brebner (global Bulks analyst) in the Commodity Compass upgraded > their f'cast for the sector again due to: > > (1) Supply side difficulties: > + infrastructure limitations in China. > + weather <<QHDvs.NCS new.xls>> <<Coal valuation 31Jan08.xls>> > related setbacks in China and Australia (BHP says delay could last 6 > mths). > + major power shortages in South Africa. > > (2) Demand is more inelastic than ever. > > BUY: BUMI Resources, Straits Asis Resources, Vale (CVRD), Rio Tinto, > Alpha Natural Resources. > > Coal price has reached record highs at US$93.35/t in Newcastle and > around US$76.7/t in Qinhuangdao, driven by the flooding in Australia > and > the snow storm which caused transportation difficulties and power > shortage in China. > > Chinese government has ordered a suspension of coal exports last week. > The blackouts have extended to 17 provinces and the government has > urged > to conserve power. > > ATTACHED: Coal valuation comps, latest coal price chart and Commodity > Compass. > > I am sure Andreas (Indo coal analyst) is working through his models > using the new coal f'casts. > > Best, > Bernard. > > > > --------------------------------- > Looking for last minute shopping deals? Find them fast with Yahoo! > Search.
