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SYDNEY, March 4 (Reuters) - UBS has raised its forecasts
for contract prices of coal for power plants and steel mills in
2008, citing an unprecedented tightness in global coal markets
after recent supply disruptions among key exporters.
Japanese utilities, such as Chubu Electric Power Co
(9502.T: Quote, Profile, Research), may need to pay miners in
Australia $130 a tonne for
coal contracts in fiscal 2008 beginning April, up 134 percent
from last year's agreed $55.65, UBS said in a research note
issued on Monday.
UBS had previously forecast 2008 thermal coal prices at
$100 a tonne.
UBS said contract price for coking coal, used to make
steel, is expected to reach a record high of $225 a tonne, up
130 percent from the agreed price of $98 last year.
"Supply availability to key Asian consumers, hit by extreme
weather events in Australia and China as well as continued
doubts over South African exports, has worsened at a
unprecedented rate," Glyn Lawcock, UBS head of resources
research, said in the report.
"This has consolidated pricing power further in the hands
of producers just as benchmark contract negotiations come
closer to conclusion in both the coking and thermal coal
markets."
Key drivers for thermal coal prices include falling exports
from China and South Africa as well as port and rail
bottlenecks in Australia, Lawcock said.
Lawcock said exports from China, which has suspended
thermal coal exports until April following severe power
shortages across the country in January, was likely to fall
below 40 million tonnes in 2008.
"We anticipate a seaborne market deficit of some 14 million
tonnes in 2008 and would suggest that, given recent
exacerbations of supply dislocations, risk to that number
remains to the upside," he said.
UBS has forecast 2009 prices for thermal and metallurgical
coal at $125 a tonne and $165 a tonne respectively.
Lawcock said coking coal prices were expected to ease next
year as producers in eastern Australia resume shipments.
Australia is the world's largest exporter of coking coal.
Extreme weather in coal-rich Queensland state in the past
two months have prompted six producers, including BHP Billiton
Ltd (BHP.AX: Quote, Profile, Research)(BLT.L: Quote, Profile,
Research), Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO.AX: Quote, Profile, Research)(RIO.L:
Quote, Profile, Research), Xstrata Plc
(XTA.L: Quote, Profile, Research), to declare force majeure on shipments.
BHP has indicated that coking coal production in 2008 could
be down by as much as 8-9 million tonnes, representing about
3-4 percent of global coking coal supply.
Updated forecasts for '08 Asia coal contract price
----------------------------------------------------------
BANK THERMAL METALLURGICAL
UBS $130 $225
Macquarie $125 $225
Goldman Sachs JB Were $110 $200
Citigroup $100 $200
JP Morgan $90 $140
Merrill Lynch $80 $140
National Australia Bank $78 $130
(Reporting by Fayen Wong)
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