Nambahin konfirmasi buat analisa Mbah tercinta :D. Dow 16K? Commentary: Index could be at 16,000 by year end, Richard Band says By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch Last update: 11:29 p.m. EDT March 27, 2008 -- Richard Band is not someone who makes outlandish predictions just to get headlines. So I sat up and took notice earlier this week when he wrote to subscribers of his Profitable Investing newsletter that the stock market was ready to "rocket higher" in an "uptrend that could carry the blue chip indexes to all-time highs by late 2008 or early 2009. Dow 16,000 here we come!" The Hulbert Financial Digest (HFD) has been tracking Band's newsletter since the beginning of 1991. Over the subsequent 17 years, his recommended portfolio has been 35% less volatile than the overall stock market, as measured by relative volatilities. To use a baseball analogy, this shows that Band is more inclined to try to get a base hit than he is to attempt to belt a home run. Band's conservative approach is crucial to properly interpreting his newsletter's performance. According to the HFD, the newsletter's model portfolios on average have produced an 8.6% annualized return since the beginning of 1991, in contrast to 10.9% annualized for the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index (97199001: Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index News, chart, profile, more
Band continued: "We're in a critical stage for stocks right now, what technical analysts call the 'right shoulder' of a head-and-shoulders bottom. The left shoulder formed on March 10, when the Standard & Poor's 500 index (SPX: S&P 500 Index SPX 1,315.22, -10.54, -0.8%) touched its closing low for the year (so far) at 1273.37. The upside-down head came on March 17, when the index broke to a new low intraday but finished at 1276.60, slightly above the March 10 close. Now we're sliding down again to complete the right shoulder of the pattern. If all goes well, the S&P should remain comfortably above the two previous closing lows. Then we can rocket higher in April." Band adds that when the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders bottom is forming, "the biggest temptation for investors is to throw up their hands and say, 'This market will never go up. It's doomed.' Don't make that mistake. A very powerful and durable rally is in the works. But it may need another couple of days to lift off. Hold the fort and keep the faith!" --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "jsx_consultant" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > ALERT: Big Brothers HAVE come back DEFINITELY !!! > > > Malam ini embah BERANI memastikan bahwa para Big Brothers > HAVE COMEBACK to BEI secara pasti dan meyakinkan. > > Jadi jika minggu lalu, embah bilang : > - THE HORROR IS OVER , > > Maka malam ini embah bilang : > - THE MARKET CONFIDENCE IS RESTORED. > > Artinya: > - Saat ini anda AMAN invest di BEI... > - Jika ada gejolak baru di US, maka IHSG sudah dalam kondisi > siap untuk BERTAHAN (tidak jatuh ancur-ancuran). >
