sebenarnya alasan utama minyak naik adalah untuk squezze China menurunkan peg yuannya. Kalau dibuat rendah khan China akan merasa membeli minyak dengan harga murah tapi akibatnya barang2 produk China nggak bisa membanjirin dunia lagi makanya China tetap stick untuk buy commoditas tersebut regardless whatever the price so long China does not need to release the peg on yuan vs USD.
Sekarang oil =$100 sama dengan 750 yuan per barrel sekarang kalau semua spekulan di dunia lagi berharap kurs 1US$ dibuat jadi 1/2nya mk value minyak akan cuma 375yuan. Dari satu sisi beli minyak berapa murah tapi di sisi lain semua cost dalam yuan akan menjadi 2x lipat dan membuat harga produk China mahal. Sisi lain, emangnya pada belum tahu berapa banyak hedge fund yang merugi karena peg yuan nggak dilepas2 karena mereka spekulasi bahwa peg yuan akan dilepas dalam waktu yang nggak terlalu lama tapi malah kecele ama pemerintah China yang getting stronger .. So let's see the real battle between US, EU and China ... On 5/10/08, Andi Wahyudi <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > > hi..hi..China consumption increases by 5.3%..Alamaakk, mo dibawa ke mana oil > price neh > > http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=atrzYIj6fEiY&refer=asia > China is securing long-term energy supply deals around the world to satisfy > its growing needs. Chinese oil consumption will rise 5.3 percent this year, > the International Energy Agency said Jan. 16. Demand rose 6.6 percent in > 2006, according to the most recent BP Statistical Review. > > > Vincent Chase <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > kl gak salah ada satu broker asing yg bilang minyak bakal ke 120 pas masi > hoovering 60-70, kayaknya JP morgan, nah sekarang analyst ini bilang minyak > bakal ke $200. > mateeeekkk !!! > > Adam Rajsha <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > oiya, ini attachment-nya. > > > On 5/10/08, Adam Rajsha <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > itu yg saya takutkan dalam 1-2 minggu kedepan, bukan index mo ke 2000, > tapi kerusuhan sosial karena masyarakat udah banyak yg prustasi dng semua > kenaikan harga barang, padahal BBM belum naik, ngak bisa kebayang dech kalo > BBM naik nantinya, harga2 makin melangit...;( > > > > tanggal 6 may lalu analisa HSBC mengatakan oil bakal ke $125, pada > ditanggal tsb harga oil masih di $120. ternyata analisa tsb tepat banget > malah sekarang udah $126. > > > > sekitar desember 07 lalu, HSBC prediksi the fed bakal nurunin suku bunga > hingga 2%-an, padahal waktu analisa tsb direlease, suku bunga the fed masih > dikisaran 4% (agak lupa tepatnya). dan sekarang terbukti. > > > > jumat kemaren (9 may 08), HSBC release analisa bahwa oil akan ke $200 > dalam 1-2 tahun kedepan. oh my god, moga2 aja analisa HSBC ini akan salah. > > > > oiya, denger2 senin depan bakal ada demo besar... moga2 semua berjalan > baik2 aja. weleh weleh.. gagal dech mo jadi longterm investor.... > > > > salam, > > AR > > > > > > > > On 5/10/08, Vincent Chase <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > u sure el? even when oil hit$150-170? and probably riots in indo? > > > > > > Elaine <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > > > > Dearest Investors.. > > > > > > Despite all the bad news that have been floating around lately, I will > proudly say WELCOME BULL. you wanna cut loss on Monday? LOOOLLL give me all > of them, and you will surely regret it for the rest of your life. > > > > > > Banks, property, commodities and telecomms are ready to ride my bull > warriors. > > > NO FEAR, KILL ALL BEARS > > > You asked about my neutrality? Well, I will say I AM NOT AND NEVER BE > NEUTRAL. I go bearish when it's near top, and bullish when it's near bottom. > I am not trader, I set target. And my target is +1000 rally. (so far only > 10% or around +100, but it's running well, hey I like it nice and slow :). > The volatility is still and always be there, so it really depends on your > investment style. Are you BOW type investors? Buy high sell higher? Signal > watchers? Macro/sectoral analyzer? > > > > > > Or are you a buy lowest sell highest type investor like me? ^^ > > > > > > > > > Elaine > > > > > > > > > ________________________________ > Be a better friend, newshound, and know-it-all with Yahoo! Mobile. Try it > now. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ________________________________ > Be a better friend, newshound, and know-it-all with Yahoo! Mobile. Try it > now. > > > > Send instant messages to your online friends http://uk.messenger.yahoo.com > >
