this stock isn't liquid..
--- Pada Jum, 20/6/08, Joe Grunk <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> menulis:
Dari: Joe Grunk <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Topik: [obrolan-bandar] FW: A few interesting facts about AMFG (Is it the time
to BUY?)
Kepada: [EMAIL PROTECTED], obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Tanggal: Jumat, 20 Juni, 2008, 12:44 PM
AMFG was a great bargain back then in 2006 (at least, according to Danareksa),
it's even a greater bargain now.
At IDR 2,900 per share, AMFG is only valued at IDR 1.25T or around USD 135mn.
Back in Sept 2006, it was valued around USD 120mn.
During 1Q08, revenue grew by 24% compared to 1Q07 while COGS and operating
expenses were up by 16.6% and 29.3% year-to-year respectively. Gross profit
margin for 1Q08 stood at 30.7% vs 26.4% in 1Q07, operating profit margin 16.3%
vs 12.5% and net profit margin was 10.6% for the first quarter of this year vs
8.1% during 1Q07. Operating profit was up 60.8% year-to-year, while net profit
grew by 62% (IDR 64.4bn vs IDR 39.7bn). Introduction of new products,
improvement in selling prices, successful conversion from oil to natural gas
and cost efficiencies must have contributed to this higher earnings.
Its FY08 sales are estimated to reach IDR 2.4T (IDR 605bn in 1Q08) while FY08
NPAT may reach around IDR 260bn (IDR 64.4bn in 1Q08), translating into an
estimated FY08 EPS of IDR 600. The quarterly profit earned in 1Q08 (IDR 64.4bn)
was actually higher than the amount of profit booked during 1H07 (IDR 63bn).
Such a decent turnaround.
Bank loans have gone down a lot, from IDR 201.5bn in 1Q07 to just IDR 27.7bn in
1Q08 while, on the other hand, cash managed to reach IDR 232.8bn from just IDR
75.7bn in 1Q07. The significant increase in cash was partly contributed by the
IDR 55bn restitution of corporate taxes paid in 2006.
Should we take Danareksa's NAV estimates calculation on the Exhibit 10 of the
attached report as the basis to calculate the most recent NAV estimates, and
assuming that the value of machineries and land stay the same (no change in the
replacement cost of existing machines, no appreciation in value of its
landbanks) while cash as at end of March 31, 2008 stood at IDR 232.8bn and debt
at the same period amounted to IDR 27.7bn, we will arrive at an NAV
estimates of IDR 4.7T (IDR 10,800 per share) or around USD 505mn (exch rate
USD/IDR 9300). The ratio of its current market cap (USD 135mn) to NAV estimates
is only 27%.
Since we don't have sufficient information necessary to calculate DCF
valuation, we will skip this one. We recall that back in Sep 2006, Danareksa
calculated AMFG's DCF value of around IDR 5,000 per share, which should have
changed to the upside by now. If we use a more conservative approach, based on
its annualised 2008 earnings of around IDR 260bn (IDR 600 per share) and
assigning a 10x PER to it, we will arrive at a fair valuation of IDR 6,000 per
share (a slightly more than 100% upside from the current price of IDR 2900).
Say you want to discount the valuation further to just 7.5x PER, it is still
IDR 4,500 (or 50% upside) inline with the medium-term technical target.
If you think liquidity is a concern here, we believe liquidity can be found at
higher prices as there are not enough willing sellers at these levels of low
PER multiples and huge discount to NAV estimates. Recall that it was so hard to
find decent volumes at HEXA when it was trading below IDR 1,000 but look at it
now.
Based on technical analysis, downside is very limited. Strong support at IDR
2,750 while resistance is located at IDR 3,250. So, it's either you wait at the
support level mentioned here or you chase up when it firmly breaks the
resistance.
Is it the time to BUY? Considering that the stock has not been actively traded
for the past two years while operational improvements have been achieved. Your
choice......
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