Dear Pak Oentoeng,
Bukan masalah saham tersebut masuk dalam incaran trading TA or tidak. Tapi
lebih kepada alasan2 seperti ini pak
Weak-form efficiency
Excess returns cannot be earned by using investment strategies based on
historical share prices.Technical analysis techniques will not be able to
consistently produce excess returns, though some forms of fundamental analysis
may still provide excess returns.Share prices exhibit no serial dependencies,
meaning that there are
no "patterns" to asset prices. This implies that future price movements
are determined entirely by unexpected information and therefore are
random.
Semi-strong-form efficiency
Semi-strong-form efficiency implies that share prices adjust to
publicly available new information very rapidly and in an unbiased
fashion, such that no excess returns can be earned by trading on that
information.Semi-strong-form efficiency implies that neither fundamental
analysis nor technical analysis techniques will be able to reliably
produce excess returns.To test for semi-strong-form efficiency, the adjustments
to
previously unknown news must be of a reasonable size and must be
instantaneous. To test for this, consistent upward or downward
adjustments after the initial change must be looked for. If there are
any such adjustments it would suggest that investors had interpreted
the information in a biased fashion and hence in an inefficient manner.
Strong-form efficiency
Share prices reflect all information, public and private, and no one can earn
excess returns.If there are legal barriers to private information becoming
public,
as with insider trading laws, strong-form efficiency is impossible,
except in the case where the laws are universally ignored.To test for
strong-form efficiency, a market needs to exist where
investors cannot consistently earn excess returns over a long period of
time. Even if some money managers are consistently observed to beat the
market, no refutation even of strong-form efficiency follows: with
hundreds of thousands of fund managers worldwide, even a normal
distribution of returns (as efficiency predicts) should be expected to
produce a few dozen "star" performers.Kuncinya adalah kita bisabeat the market
jika ada informasi yang cukup mengenai market.
baik itu informasi fundamental,maupun informasi teknikal.
fundamental analisis dan teknikal analisis bukanlah seperti kutub utara dan
kutub selatan yang tidak ada titik temunya.
FA dan TA memiliki titik temu yang sederhana yaiitu bahwa karena harga bergerak
disebabkan oleh faktor2 fundamental dan psikologi massa, maka teknikal analisi
mencoba mengambil kesimpulan dari efek berita-berita fundamental dan psikologis
massa tersebebut.
Kiranya dari saya seperti itu pak...
Terima kasih atas masukan-masukkannya pak
Kind Regards,
Adit
--- On Sun, 8/17/08, oentoeng_qq <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
From: oentoeng_qq <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Understanding Volume & open Interest
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Date: Sunday, August 17, 2008, 4:10 PM
--- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, Pengamat Market
<kalipatullah@ ...> wrote:
>
> Maaf pak untung meluruskan saja
>
> Teorinya sederhana saja
> pada kondisi convergence
> Harga nak + volume Naik = bullish
> Harga turun + volume turun = bearish
> Jadi ketika harga turun justru volumenya akan menurun....
>
> Kalau dari yang anda katakan Harga trun harus diikuti volume
meningkat.
>
Terima kasih atas pelurusannya pak...
Tapi bicara volume secara TEORI itu sudah banyak di buku.
Makanya saya lebih suka bicara berdasarkan apa yg sudah kita rasakan
dalam kehidupan sehari2.
Orang bilang contoh kasus; hehehe...
Sekarang anda sebagai Pengamat Market, bagaimana menurut anda
kejadian VOLUME yg terjadi pada MYTX kemarin.
Apakah karena kejadian itu situasional, atau karena LIKUIDITAS tidak
berkelanjutan sehingga belum masuk kriteria incaran trading by TA?
Sehingga belum bisa dianalisa?
