Bu Elaine, Kalau rate naik, bukannya IDR nantinya terlalu kuat ya Bu? Sementara tetangga sudah mulai cut rate, bukannya real economy Indonesia akan terpukul? Deficit meningkat akibat eksport menurun tajam atau mungkin terjadi super deflation di Indonesia untuk short term dan saat nanti tetangga mulai pulih justru Indonesia yang jatuh :p Mungkin bagus buat pemilu - politik, di luar itu ya mungkin cuma fake strong economy saja :) Anyway decision Bu Elaine beli SBI mungkin bagus juga mengingat rate mau turun pun, idr menguat mengikuti usd jadi tetap saja bond-nya makin bagus. Anyhow idr kan rada-rada aneh-aneh gitu :p BI tidak menaikkan rate ataupun turun sedikitpun menurut saya juga IDR tetap kuat karena dia mengikuti usd yang berkecenderungan naik. Tetangga-tetangga sudah mulai hampir yakin cut rate sebentar lagi. Anyhow harga komoditas sekarang juga sudah menunjukkan peningkatan nilai usd di future. Mau naik juga susah, usd masih berkecenderungan menguat. Sekarang posisi komoditas lebih cenderung untuk investor, kita lihat saja seberapa lama usd akan terus menguat. Mau turun juga saya ragu akan bisa turun banyak lagi. Tinggal tunggu saja signal usd membalik turun, diperkirakan komoditas akan mengalami shooting up +1000 seperti Bu Elaine bilang dulu :)
--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Elaine Sui" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > *Outflow? > > I forget to tell you, we moved some of our equity funds to fixed income, > they give better returns for sometime now, and seems that everyone else did > it too, that's why IDR has been quite strong albeit IDX tumbles. > > I expect central bank to raise rates even more, maybe to 9.5%? Any comment? > They are doing what they call "Tight Money Policy", to keep the money from > going out of the country by selling short term bonds. > > What is TMP? > > lol. it's a central bank policy designed to curb inflation by reducing the > reserves of commercial banks (and consequently the money supply, through > open market operations), opposite of easy monetary policy (like the Fed has > been doing). **This policy is exercised in times of inflation. > > How the central bank do this? > > * > > *1. Selling securities (bonds) to banks and the public.* > > - *This decreases the supply of money. The public is giving money (buy) > to the Central Bank. In exchange, the Fed is giving (sell) the public/banks > bonds, which isn't money. Hence, there is less money circulating in the > economy. > > * > - *Because banks now have less reserves, they cannot loan as much money > to the public.* > > *2. Increase the Interest Rate* > > - *By increasing the Int. rate, it costs more interest for banks to > borrow from other banks. Thus, banks have less excess reserves and lend > less to the public.* > > *3. Increase the Reserve Ratio* > > - *By increasing the reserve ratio, banks now have less excess reserves. > Therefore, money supply has been decreased, and the banks cannot loan as > much money to the public.* > > * * > > *Effects of Changing Money Supply on Aggregate Demand * > > * > 1. interest rates rise (SM=Supply, DM=Demand). Ppl instead of holding IDR, > they prefer to hold high yielding bonds. > * > > ** > > *2. investment falls. Self explanatory. > * > > ** > > *3. Aggregate demand <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aggregate_demand> falls* > > ** > > *The steeper the Dm curve, the larger the effect of any given change in the > money supply on the equilibrium rate of interest. Furthermore, any given > change in the interest rate will have a larger impact on investment - and > hence a greater impact on aggregate demand and GDP.* > > * > * > > *As a side note, an tight money policy decreases net exports because of > higher interest rates.* > * > The food prices will spike in the coming month, mainly in fasting season (I > still don't get it, does ppl eat more in fasting season?) and idl fitr, ppl > will need more cash in hand thus making inflation rise again, so from my > point of view, the central bank is doing it right by increasing int rate.* > * > Now, would you keep your cmdty stocks at this time? This is very scary you > know, sell them all to me..lol** Terserah mau tidak percaya juga Elaine > tidak perduli.. ^_^ > > Elaine agak malas kasih lecture apalagi OB isinya orang pintar semua, paling > enak kasih gambar tombstone saja, lebih seru... > > * > > > ** > > *Or this..* > > > ** > > > ** > > *sadly only few got the message.. well that's your problem, not mine.. ^_^ > * > > * * > *Elaine** > * > On Sun, Aug 17, 2008 at 6:20 PM, jsx_consultant < > [EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Elaine Sui" > > <you.can.call.me.elaine@> wrote: > > > > > > *I'd buy Astra Agro @13000-15000 and sell them @45k in 2H/FY09. > > That'd be > > > 200% gain. Fair enough? > > > > It is fair enough..... > > > > > > > > > > Both of them are right, since there's no exact timeframe supplied. > > Anyway, I > > > put a huge proportion on financials and property, as you can see > > I'm seeking > > > the most defensive sector in this 2H08 (refer to Marcello's post), > > > > Last week, the switching from Commodity to Bangking sector is > > still happening, but the OUTFLOW fom Commodity sector is greater > > than the INFLOW to banking sector. So the is a NET REDEMPTION from > > BEI. > > > > Check this Fund Flow graphics: http://www.invest2000.net/ihsgflow.png > > > > Pada graphic terlihat: > > - IHSG jatuh lebih dalam dibanding Fund Flow dari tgl 11/8/08 > > sampai hari ini. Ini berarti IHSG jatuh karena faktor SENTIMEN, > > yaitu jatuhnya harga minyak dan bukan semata FUND OUTFLOW. > > > > > > > > but IF > > > cmdty stocks fall way beyond my valuation, I might increase it back. > > > > > > Unlike traders I just can't put them in 100% in cash. That's why > > they're > > > called Actively Managed Funds. > > > > > > (It's funny, somehow some ppl looks smarter and talks much that he > > used to. > > > It's traders psychological trait, the more you make analysis, the > > less > > > you're trading. It's a sign that most player here are staying away > > from the > > > market which also indicates that the bottom is near, and somehow I > > know > > > hendrik was not trading what he was saying... roflmao just > > kidding,..) > > > > > > Well all I know that this year crude oil will be back to 80, fed > > stays at > > > 2.00, ID int. rate will be 9.75, PO futures below 2000, N McCloskey > > below > > > 100, generally everything will be down before they start to rebound, > > > obviously, and Yudoyhono will win the election for the 2nd time. > > > > > > I won't respond to any of your argument cuz it's not happening yet. > > Arguing > > > the future is stupid. ^_^ > > > > > > As for Bakrie Group, we just don't like to invest our fund to > > someone we > > > can't trust. (it feels like telling your pet dog to guard your > > sausages, you > > > just KNOW it won't work..lol) > > > > > > Happy Independence Day, I wish IDX will shine again and everyone is > > > wealthier next year. > > > > > > Elaine** > > > * > > > 2008/8/17 jsx_consultant <jsx-consultant@> > > > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "hendrik_lwww" > > > > <hendrik_lwww@> wrote: > > > > > > > > > .... > > > > > salah satu kelamahan BALANCING adalah > > > > > newbie akan bingung mau CL apa tidak > > > > > > > > Jangankan Newbie, embah aja BINGUNG mau ikut pak Halim atau > > > > Macquire. Yang manasih yg BENER ??? Jangan jangan kedua > > > > dua nya salah dan yang bener adalah yang punya TP MODERAT > > > > tidak kerendahan dan tidak ketinggian. > > > > > > > > Member senior 'punya' tanggung jawab ama yg yunior, AT LEAST > > > > untuk tidak memberikan posting yg bernuansa 'TERROR', berikan > > > > mereka info yg WAJAR (meskipun embah yakin pak Halim dan > > > > Macquire merasa SUDAH memberi info yg WAJAR meskipun angkanya BEDA > > > > SELANGIT). > > > > > > > > Sehingga para Newbie at least akan merasa FIT (tidak stress) > > > > untuk membuat DECISION: Cutloss, HOLD, BUY atau Average down. > > > > > > > > Jika mereka STRESS, mereka tidak akan bisa membuat keputusan > > > > YG CORRECT, karena FEAR akan lebih dominan daripas logika... > > > > > > > > Kalo soal benar atau salah sih MASALAH LAIN karena salah satu > > > > dari SENIOR diatas AJA akan SALAH, apalagi yg newbie...hehehe.. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ------------------------------------ > > > > > > > > + + > > > > + + + + + > > > > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus > > > > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. > > > > + + + + + > > > > + +Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ------------------------------------ > > > > + + > > + + + + + > > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus > > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. > > + + + + + > > + +Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > > > > >
