Dari bacaan dibawah: Depleting current account - trend reversal Due to fast rising imports and underperforming non-commodities exports, Indonesia 's current account may reach its lowest level in years in 2Q08. Although it should remain positive, the trend is likely to reverse to its pre-1997 deficit position as the country's economic development normalises and the commodities trade surplus declines. As such, BI may have to be content with larger rate hikes to ensure that the environment remains conducive to maintaining capital inflow. Ha..ha.. ha kayenya musti dibalik pernyataannya:
Due to fast larger rate hikes to ensure that the environment remains conducive to maintaining capital inflow, BI may have to deal with rising imports and underperforming non-commodities exports, Indonesia 's current account may reach its lowest level in years in 2Q08. Karena penyebab rising imports and underperforming non-commodities exports adalah KENAIKAN RATE itu sendiri. LOL rgs, JM --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, James Liem <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > DB Global Emerging Market Conference in New York on September 3 - 5, 2008. > From Indonesia the following corporates will attend: Indika Energy, Adaro Energy, Bank Negara Indonesia , Indofood, and Bumi Resources. For registration, please contact your DB Representatives or register thru the web - http://conferences.db.com/americas/gems08, Passcode: gems08 > PUBLISHED REPORTS > Indonesia Strategy - Trend reversal > Semen Gresik Earnings protection from greater pricing flexibility > Indonesia Strategy - Trend reversal > Depleting current account - trend reversal > Due to fast rising imports and underperforming non-commodities exports, Indonesia 's current account may reach its lowest level in years in 2Q08. Although it should remain positive, the trend is likely to reverse to its pre-1997 deficit position as the country's economic development normalises and the commodities trade surplus declines. As such, BI may have to be content with larger rate hikes to ensure that the environment remains conducive to maintaining capital inflow. > Outweighed by positive macro development elsewhere > We do not anticipate rupiah weakness due to this development. To be sure, other important macroeconomic moving parts are encouraging: inflation seems to be peaking out, lower oil prices are easing the pressure on the budget, Indonesian job creation is at an all-time high, etc. Still, these developments may be influenced by the current negative market sentiment. Indeed, foreign investment flow in government papers, especially SBI, tends to be very macro newsflow-driven and its volatile nature has significant impact on the rupiah. BI plans to announce the BOP position by early September. > The drag factors > The trade surplus has been declining in recent months. Including FTZ accounts, in 2Q08, the trade surplus dwindled to a mere one-third of the previous quarter's surplus. We attribute this decline to the steep increase in imports; even non-oil imports increased 46% ytd yoy, partly because of inflation. Imports of capital equipment, raw material and consumer products all saw steep increases. The top seven import products, including machinery equipment, electronics, automotive and other raw material items such as steel and iron contributed to 60% of the non-oil import increase. While this reflects positively on domestic demand resilience, the counterbalance of capital inflow is mostly in the form of portfolio inflow rather than direct investment. Indeed, the commodities trade surplus may decline as non-oil trade surplus is double that of the oil trade deficit. Non-commodities exports have also been lacklustre at 12% ytd yoy; however, adjusting for WPI, they > may have just been flat. > Stock implications > We believe that positive macro-economic development elsewhere should far outweigh the current account depletion. However, market perception may be affected by the current market sentiment. In such an unlikely scenario, stocks that may do well are commodity related, while most of the consumer stocks, except Indofood, would be negatively affected in the event of rupiah weakness. >
