Btw, Pak James... Hari ini yang guyur BUMI bintangnya DB lho.
Nah lho... Nah lho...
--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, James Liem <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> Subject: Fw: BUMI (TP Rp7,680) - Deutsche Bank: Down but not out
>
>
> >
> > Deutsche Bank - Equity Research
> >
> > Bumi {Ticker: BUMI.JK, Closing Price: 5,300 IDR, Target Price:
7,680
> > IDR,
> > Recommendation: Buy}
> >
> > * Reiterate Buy on strong coal outlook
> >
> > Recent weakness in Bumi's stock price is mainly the result of
overall
> > negative sentiment on commodities following the softening of oil
price,
> > and has been exacerbated by negative news flow. However, we remain
> > upbeat that coal prices will continue to sustain owing to
persistent
> > supply constraints.
> > Bumi's valuation of 8x FY09E, therefore, presents a strong buying
> > opportunity, in our view.
> >
> > * We expect recent issues to have one-off impact at worst
> >
> > While recent issues (KPC issue, VAT, tax) may have significant
impact on
> > 2008F earnings and/or cash flow, we believe any impact they could
have
> > would be one-off. In the worst-case scenario, these issues would
knock
> > off no more than 4% from NPV based on our estimates; the implied
> > worst-case DCF valuation of about Rp7,290 is still about 30%
above the
> > current price.
> >
> > * Revise earnings to update cost and price assumptions
> >
> > We have revised our earnings by -30% for 2008F, mainly reflecting
higher
> > cash cost assumptions (fuel price and strip ratio) and lower
volume
> > assumption, while maintaining our ASP of US$80/ton. We expect a
higher
> > ASP in 2009F at US$102/ton to offset higher costs, resulting in a
+4%
> > revision to 2009F earnings.
> >
> > * Valuation remains attractive despite TP and earnings revisions
> >
> > We have cut our target price for Bumi by 20% to Rp7,680 (Vs
Rp9,800),
> > primarily reflecting our higher WACC assumption due to recent
revisions
> > of the country's risk-free rate and market risk premium
assumptions, and
> > our recent earnings revision. In spite of the revision, we believe
> > Bumi's valuation remains attractive, particularly in the context
of a
> > strong coal outlook. At the TP, Bumi trades at 11x 09PE, or a 25%
> > discount to the target PE of Chinese coal stocks. Risks include
higher
> > costs, lower output and regulatory risks.
> >
> >
> >
> > For more information, please click on the attached Document.
> >
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> > transmission or the information contained in it is strictly
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> > immediately
> > contact the sender to arrange for the return of the original
documents.
> >
> ***************
> CONFIDENTIALITY: The information contained in or attached to this
electronic transmission is confidential and may be legally
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