Embah ngerjain si Aimee, pak Johan yg kena.... hehehe... Sebenarnya pertanyaan embah ama Aimee engga usah dijawab karena WB sering bilang Dia engga mau liat monitor karena dia BERPENDAPAT tidak seorangpun yang tau market mau kemana termasuk Buffett sendiri. Dia kan cuman konsentrasi ama VALUE STOCK, yaitu saham yg harganya JAUH dibawah nilai wajarnya, index mau kemana dia engga sanggup memprediksinya.
Jadi buat WB: - Bukan bullish atau bearish tapi - Saham yg dia beli SUDAH MURAH dibandingkan harga WAJAR hasil hitungan dia yg mungkin akan tercapai beberapa tahun dimasa depan. Jadi seorang VALUE INVESTOR akan belanja disaat market lagi crash dimana banyak saham harganya JATUH dibawah harga wajarnya. Kalo harganya jatuh lagi, dia akan beli lagi. Ini berbeda dengan TECHNICAL trader(TT) yg berusaha mencari LOWESTnya (ini MUSTAHIL) atau membeli saat ada rebound. Pada saat rebound, TT akan masuk tapi kalo rebound FAIL, TT akan Cut Loss. Akhirnya jadi double TT yaitu Tek Tok Technical Trader yg bikin broker tambah makmur....hehehe... Thanks buat pak Johan yg udah ngasih kita data WB... Note: - Embah juga sebenarnya engga ngarepin si Breakout bisa jawab pertanyaan embah karena TA memang penting tapi BUKAN segalanya. - Ilmu investasi adalah MULTI DISIPLINARY dan bukan hanya TA doang, kalo bekel TA doang, engga bakalan jadi Fund Manager deh... --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Johan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Mbah, mungkin WB itu investor, Aimee itu trader/investor yang terobsesi buy at bottom hehehe jd ya beda aliran. Ini kebetulan saya hbs research soal WB, > > Nov 1 1974 "now is the time to invest and get rich," he says in a Forbes interview. > 11/1/1974 close 665.28 > 12/9/1974 closed 579.9 (lower by 12.8% more after call) > 07/19/1975 closed 872.11 (higher by 31% after call) > 09/22/1976 closed 1014 (higher by 52.4% after call) > > Aug 6 1979 "those awaiting for a better time in equity investing are highly likely to maintain that posture until well into the next bull market," again stated in a Forbes piece. > 08/6/1979 close 848 > 04/21/1980 close 759 (lower by 10.4% after the statement) > 04/27/1981 close 1024 (higher by 20% from time of statement) > > Nov 22 1999 "investors in stocks these days are expecting way too much," talking about the Tech Bubble in Fortune Magazine. > 11/22/1999 nasdaq close 3392.56 > 03/10/2000 close 5048 ( 48% more from call) > 10/07/2002 close 1119 (67% drop from time of call, 77% drop from high) > > Jadi kesimpulan nya, Thn 1974 habis buffet calls buy, market mase turun 12% dan dalam tempo 1 bulan baru akhir nya market menemukan bottom. > > Thn 1979 hbs buffer calls buys, market mase turun lagi sebesar 10% dan dalam tempo 8 bulan baru akhir nya market menemukan bottom. > > Jadi kesimpulan nya, dari 2x peristiwa di atas, Setiap WB mengatakan buy, market mase turun sekitar 10%. Jadi ada yang ingat kemarin waktu buffet bilang buy, DJI di level brp? dan juga perlu di ingat, setelah beli bisa 1 bulan, bisa juga 8 bulan kemudian market baru menemukan bottom nya. > > Bisa jadi kali ini buffet bener lagi juga bisa salah, tapi mungkin bisa di simpulkan krisis kali ini perlu waktu yang lama buat menemukan bottom nya, apalagi buat pulih, mase perlu proses sangat panjang. Setelah market bottom juga ga bearti langsung akan terbang tinggi. Jadi santai aja, gak usah takut ketinggalan kereta, tidak usah buru-buru beli, orang habis WB beli GS di $125 aja mase turun ke $108an kok, lagian WB bilang beli US Stocks, dia gak bilang beli emerging markets stocks, meski tercatat WB dengan anak perusahaan nya telah membeli saham di perusahaan batere China/Hongkong, dan memang keliatan DJI belom make new low, regional semua udah pada new low. > > > Disclaimer : Yang nama nya history tetap masa lalu > > --- On Fri, 10/24/08, jsx_consultant <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > From: jsx_consultant <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: TOTAL RECALL > > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > > Date: Friday, October 24, 2008, 4:06 AM > > Aimee, > > > > Kenapa Buffett suruh beli saham sekarang ?. Apa Buffett ama > > semua > > staffnya lebih bodo dari Aimee ?. > > > > Embah sih engga tau WB atau Aimee yg bener ?. Bisa aja > > Aimee yg > > bener karena ternyata Greenspan aja akhirnya terbukti > > IDIOT. > > > > Kalo pendapat Aimee gimana ?, Kenapa WB buat kesalahan ( > > dari > > sudut persepsi Aimee) ? > > > > > > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Ratu > > Sima" <RATUSIMA@> > > wrote: > > > > > > Afternoon Om, Tante, Eyang... > > > > > > This is Aimee. > > > To avoid confusion over the BIG PICTURE, > > > I'll say some short comment. > > > > > > The stock market will still GO DOWN & DOWN. > > > The total market cap. in the US doesn't even > > compare the total > > > mounting credit, financial, and housing accumulation. > > > Maybe U'd be surprised after knowing how serious > > the derivatives > > > market has been drinking the blood of US liquidity > > nowadays. > > > It all started with 'home-equity extraction then > > leading to the > > whole > > > horrific picturesque...' > > > > > > Not even joint forces of UK & US total market cap. > > can compare > > closely. > > > > > > The avert is WILLINGLY OR UNWILLINGLY redragging all > > the nutrient > > > resources scattered around the planet. > > > > > > And when it still fails... > > > > > > Meanwhile, the local market has been thoroughly biased > > with instant > > > unprecedented policy which resembles 'trial and > > error', instead > > > of 'trial and true'. > > > > > > Standing against the market will NOT in any manner > > solving any > > > immediate solution and even making the matter worse. > > > > > > Please this is my RECALL to get on track and do the > > right things. > > > Prioritize long term impact by saving the current > > 'right here right > > > now' process. > > > > > > YET it's all part of learning. > > > > > > Thank you and please please beware... > > > > > > Love, > > > Aimee > > > >
