mbah, tolong bahas SMGR vs INTP donk... karena dalam 2 hari ini, volumenya besar (sepanjang 2008, paling besar hari rabu kemarin)
thanx D0n Qicot --- On Thu, 10/30/08, jsx_consultant <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: From: jsx_consultant <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Q3 Update: SMGR vs SMCB To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Date: Thursday, October 30, 2008, 9:59 PM >From UBS: TP=4000 - We lower our earnings forecasts for 2009E-10E by 7%. - We lower domestic cement demand growth assumption from 8% to 4% for 2009 and from 10% to 8% for 2010. - We lower our ASP increase assumption for 2009, in line with weaker demand, from 12% to 9%. However, falling oil and coal prices serve as an earnings buffer as 40-45% of COGS is energy costs. - Our DCF-derived PT, assuming a new 12.8% risk free rate and unchanged 5% long term g, is Rp4,000 (30% lower). So what stocks do you recommend and it's Target ? --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, SyIFA Fund <syifa.fund@ ...> wrote: > > > For the sake of latest condition in financial market turmoil and will be realized in real sector soon, we do not believe cement sector...so we plan not to touch them for NOW...there are some reasons why...First, for company like SMGR, their movement in BEI is limited and SMGR liquidity is questioned due to government buyback that made SMGR shares less available to investor in the market. Second, we can see that SMGR plan to issue global bonds for funding their expansion will be terminated (this is like double-edged sword case; in one way good for their balance sheet (one point estimation) but not good for their prospect, but to get conclusion let's take a look into our third point. Third, ask your analyst to give you China cement data, and that's why I'm so worry on this sector, SOON they'll flood national market with that kinda stuff. > > DISCLAIMER: ON > > SF and FCI Holding > Where you can trust your fund for the future > > --- On Thu, 10/30/08, jsx_consultant <jsx-consultant@ ...> wrote: > From: jsx_consultant <jsx-consultant@ ...> > Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Q3 Update: SMGR vs SMCB > To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com > Date: Thursday, October 30, 2008, 4:11 PM > > Q3 Update: SMGR vs SMCB > > http://www.invest20 00.net/QZ83CEM6. TXT > > - Sector cement thn 2009 diperkirakan mengalami penurunan laba yang > tidak terlalu berat yaitu sekitar -10%. > - SMCB punya angka DER jauh lebih tinggi dari SMGR, ini akan lebih > memberatkan performance Holcim. >
