I mean if the chances that the user is already logged into "Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Yahoo (this is in alphabetic order)" is > 25%,

One or all of the above? :)

I'm not logged into any of them; unless they start letting OpenID be used for creating (and logging into) accounts, I don't see it happening anytime soon.

Of course this heavily favors the big guys, but I think accepting reality might be in order here. What do you think?

So long as that acceptance doesn't come at the cost of denying the minority's reality (and I don't think the independent "consumer share" is small enough that any of the "big guys" don't care about where we might end up), I think it'd be fine.

-Shade
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