http://www.memri.org/bin/latestnews.cgi?ID=IA20104
THE MIDDLE EAST MEDIA RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Inquiry and Analysis Series - No. 201
December 31, 2004 No.201
Iraqi Elections (II): The Launching of the Campaign
By: *Dr. Nimrod Raphaeli
Introduction
Amidst intensifying acts of violence and many calls to postpone the
elections, preparations for the balloting in Iraq scheduled for
January 30 have been proceeding unabated. By the deadline of December
15, 107 lists carrying the names of 7200 candidates for the 275 seats
in the National Assembly were submitted and approved by the High
Commission for Elections. The lists represent 73 single political
parties, 25 independent candidates, and 9 lists of various coalitions
or combinations of political parties.
In addition to the lists for the national assembly, 382 lists with
7850 candidates have been submitted for the election of members of the
18 provincial councils (41 members for each council with the exception
of Baghdad, which will elect 51 members). Finally, 499 candidates -
submitted either on a joint list of the two major Kurdish parties or
on a list of one of the 17 smaller Kurdish parties - will be competing
for the 111 seats in the Kurdish National Council (independent Kurdish
parliament). [1] A chart illustrating the election process in Iraq is
attached as an annex.
The U.N. Secretary General's special representative to Iraq, Ashraf
Kadi, has declared that the logistical arrangements necessary for
conducting credible Iraqi elections on January 30 are in place.
However, unlike the cases of Afghanistan and East Timor where the
United Nations ran the elections, in Iraq the responsibility for
running the elections rests with the country's High Commission for
Elections. [2]
The Lists of Candidates
Under the proportional representation system which was introduced to
Iraq by the United Nations, the country will be treated as a single
constituency, and each voter will cast one vote either for one of the
twenty-five independent candidates or for a list representing one or
more parties. While vigorous competition is expected during the
elections, realistically only a few lists, in particular the Iraqi
National Alliance list brokered by Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the two
joint Kurdish lists, and the list of interim Prime Minister Ayad
Allawi are expected to win a substantial number of seats in the
national assembly. For the others, success, if any, will be limited to
the top tier of the list. The following is a review of the major lists:
(1) The Iraqi National Alliance
By all accounts, the most important list of candidates is the Iraqi
National Alliance. The list, primarily representing the Shi'ite
majority and fashioned in consultation with Grand Ayatollah Ali
al-Sistani, offers 228 candidates divided equally between
representatives of major Shi'ite political parties and independent
candidates who are mainly Shi'ite, but include Sunnis, Failis (Kurdish
Shi'ites), Turkmen, and Yazdis (another Kurdish splinter group).
The political parties represented on the list are the Islamic Da'wa
Party, headed by Ibrahim al-Ja'fari, interim Vice President of Iraq;
the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), headed
by Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim, who also heads the national alliance list;
and the Iraqi National Congress, headed by Dr. Ahmad Chalabi. A less
significant party is Hizbullah, headed by Abd al-Karim al-Mahmadawi. A
significant independent candidate on the list is Dr. Hussein
Shahristani, who put the list together in consultation with Sistani.
Shahristani, a former nuclear physicist who refused to be co-opted
into Saddam's weapons program and was subsequently imprisoned, is
considered a likely candidate to be the next prime minister of Iraq, a
post he had turned down when it was offered to him by Ambassador Paul
Bremer when the interim government was constituted. While the list
represents a broad segment of the Iraqi society, there is little that
it has offered in terms of its political program and how it might
restore stability to the country. Noticed for his absence from the
list is Muqtada al-Sadr, who has refused to offer his support for the
National Alliance. [3]
(2) The Kurdish List
The second most significant list is that of the two key Kurdish
parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party headed by Mas'oud Barazani and
the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan headed by Jalal Talabani. This is the
first attempt by the two Kurdish parties to campaign jointly both for
the National Assembly and for the autonomous parliament of Kurdistan.
In launching their joint list, Barazani declared that it was "an
historic agreement" that would protect the rights of the Kurdish
people and help to build "a united federal democratic Iraq." The Kurds
are clearly concerned that the election of a majority Shi'ite members
of the national assembly might frustrate their expectations for a
federation and, more significantly, their demand for the inclusion of
the oil rich city of Kirkuk into such a federation. At the moment the
status of Kirkuk is uncertain as Arabs and Turkmen demand that it
remains outside any future Kurdish autonomous region. The Kurds are
also concerned that the list of the Iraqi National Alliance has been
able to attract the Turkmen who make up a substantial percentage of
the population of Kirkuk and who are determined to prevent the city
from falling under Kurdish control. The Kurds have also lost the
al-Shammar tribe in the north, President's al-Yawer's tribe, which has
deserted the president and the Kurds and opted to go with the
Alliance. Under the present political constellation, the only
remaining natural allies of the Kurds are the Communists and the Iraqi
Islamic Party. [4]
(3) The Iraqis (al-Iraqiyoon)
The Iraqi list "al-Iraqiyoon" was submitted by al-Wifaq al-Watani (the
National Accord Party), headed by the interim Prime Minister Ayad
Allawi. It comprises members of his party as well as other political
parties, tribal figures, and independents. The list includes the
Movement of Democratic Iraqis which is headed by Qassim Daoud, the
Minister for National Security. In terms of independents, the list
includes Hussein al-Sadr, a Shi'ite cleric (uncle of Muqtada al-Sadr);
the Sunni tribal chief, Nazzar al-Khaizaran; and the spokesman for
Allawi, Tha'ir al-Naqib, the brother of the Minister of Interior
Fallah al-Naqib.
The list offers 240 candidates. In announcing the list, interim Prime
Minister Allawi offered a broad outline of political, economic and
social program. He emphasized the critical importance of restoring
security, including the rebuilding of the army as a precursor for
demanding the withdrawal of the multinational forces from "our beloved
Iraq." Allawi also highlighted his program for better education,
health and welfare. In the economic domain he called for reducing the
reliance on one sector (oil) and opening the economy to market forces.
[5] In an effort to gain the support of the Ba'thists, Allawi declared
that he distinguished between "the criminals of the previous regime
and those who had no blood on their hands." He also pledged to fight
terrorism and extremism. [6]
(4) The Iraqi (al-Iraqiya)
This list, submitted by the interim President Ghazi al-Yawer,
comprises mainly tribal leaders. Clearly, al-Yawer's prospects were
dealt a major blow when his uncle, one of the leaders of the Shammar
Tribe, the largest tribe in Iraq with both Sunni and Shi'ite elements,
opted to go with the "Alliance" list. According to reports in the
Iraqi media, there were discussion about the merging of Allawi's and
al-Yawer's lists to increase their prospects but negotiations have not
been successful because of disagreement regarding which of the two
leaders should head the list. [7]
(5) The Iraqi Communist Party
The Iraqi Communist Party, the oldest Communist party in the Arab
world, submitted a list of 275 candidates, including 91 women. The
list is headed by the secretary general of the party Hamid Majid
Moussa. Also on the list is Mufid al-Jaza'iri, the interim minister of
culture. [8] That a Communist could serve as interim minister vividly
demonstrates the progress Iraq has made in less than two years toward
democracy and pluralism.
(6) The Iraqi Islamic Party
Despite the calls by theOrganization of Islamic Scholars (the major
Sunni clerical organization) to boycott of the elections, the Iraqi
Islamic Party (a Sunni party) under the leadership of Muhsin Abd
al-Hamid, a former member of Iraq's Governing Council, submitted a
list of 275 candidates. [9] However, this party continues to call for
postponing the elections and refuses to say whether it will campaign
actively. [10] On December 27, the Islamic Party has announced it was
withdrawing from the elections.
Another Sunni party, known as the Islamic Democratic Current, has
submitted a list of 60 candidates supposedly representing academics,
tribal chiefs and women. [11] No information is available on this group.
(7) The Constitutional Monarchy Movement
The Constitutional Monarchy Movement submitted a list of 275
candidates headed by Sherif Ali bin al-Hussein, the claimant to the
Hashemite throne in Iraq. The list will probably appeal to the old
generation of Iraqis who were born under the monarchy, saw it
destroyed in a bloody coup in 1958, and experienced more than four
decades of repression which ensued. However, the monarchy in Iraq was
associated with the Sunni domination in government and, before he can
ascend the throne, Sherif Ali will need to convince many skeptics that
such ascendancy will enhance national unity and equality. His
statement that 69% of the Iraqis wish to see the restoration of the
monarchy will be put to test soon. [12]
Other Lists
A number of additional parties have presented lists to the High
Commission for Elections. The Unity Party joined two other unnamed
parties to form the Nasserite Socialist Party (named after Gamal Abd
Al-Nasser) which emphasizes Arabism and Islam. A list was submitted by
the Liberal Mission Gathering, whose objectives are 'justice, equality
and freedom." [13] A list of 63 candidates was submitted by the old
secular-liberal Sunni politician, Adnan al-Pachachi, a former foreign
minister of Iraq. Although al-Pachachi has submitted a list, he
continues to insist that the elections be postponed to allow all
segments of the Iraqi society to participate in the drafting of the
constitution and has left open his options whether to take part in the
elections. Al-Pachachi's own prospects were dimmed by the withdrawal
of two key figures on his list, Mahdi al-Hafidh, the minister of
planning and Ayham al-Samera'i the minister of electricity, both of
whom joined the list of the prime minister. [14] It would seem that
the dimmer the prospects of a candidate, the louder the candidate's
voice for postponing the elections.
Former army General Najib al-Salhi, secretary-general of "Free
Officers and Civilians Movement," submitted a list of 126 candidates,
42 of whom are women and 25 of whom were officers in the former Iraqi
armed forces and include Ba'thists who, like al-Salhi himself, left
Iraq because of disagreement with Saddam's policies. [15]
The Voters
The High Commission for Elections estimates the number of voters in
Iraq at 14 million, this being the number of those who have received
food rations coupons distributed following the introduction of the
"Oil for Food Program" in 1996. According to the head of the
Commission, Abd al-Hussein al-Hindawi the registration of voters for
elections has been "amazing." [16]
In addition to those with food coupons, there are Iraqis who left
their country in the 1980s and 1990s because of the war with Iran and
the aftermath of the occupation of Kuwait. A relatively small minority
of these Iraqis have since returned to their country and, upon
presenting their passports, will be eligible to vote.
The Iraqis who are still in exile will be allowed to cast their
ballots on January 28 through January 30 in their fourteen countries
of residence - the United States, Canada, Britain, Holland, France,
Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Australian, Iran, Turkey, Syria, Jordan and
the United Arab Emirates. [17] The International Organization for
Migration (IOM) was authorized by the Iraqi High Commission for
Elections to administer the Out-of-Country Voting Program. Syria
appears to be the only country that has announced that it will not
allow such elections on its soil. One may infer that although it did
not volunteer an explanation for its position, Syria, which appears
determined to thwart the emergence of a democratic Iraq, would find it
awkward to aid a process of free elections which it denies its own
people. [18] By contrast, Iran, with 200,000 Iraqis, has offered to
cooperate with Iraq in the election process. [19] The Iranians will
most probably see to it that the voters cast their ballots for the
Sistani-sponsored list.
Voting Procedures
Voting will spread over ten hours, between 7:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m.
(one minute after sunrise and 33 minutes before sunset). There will be
7000 ballot boxes across Iraq, each guarded by the Iraqi police, the
National Guard, and security firms. It is estimated that 103,000
security officers will be guarding the polling stations. The
multinational force will stay in the background in order not to be
seen as influencing the outcome of the elections. [20]
The order of the lists was established by a lottery in the presence of
representatives of political parties. Voters will mark the list of
their choice. Each list will carry a three-digit number beginning with
101, insuring equality among the contending lists. Among the leading
lists, the Kurdish list has number 130 and the Alliance list has
169.Voters, except in Kurdistan, will cast two ballots: one for the
national assembly and one for the provincial government. [21] In
Kurdistan, the voters will cast a third ballot for the Kurdish
autonomous parliament. Each ballot will be printed in one of three
colors. To insure the integrity of the elections, voters will proceed
to the voting booth alone, save for the blind and the handicapped, who
may be accompanied by one person, [22] and the finger of the voter
will be marked with indelible ink. Because the High Commission for
Elections has decided that it will be easier to guard stationary
ballot boxes than to provide security to 7000 vehicles carrying the
ballot boxes to a central location, following the closing of the
voting, ballots will be counted at the polling stations in the
presence of representatives of the candidates. The results could be
known within hours. The votes of overseas Iraqis will be counted in
Abu Dhabi. [23]
The Campaign
Given the present security circumstances in Iraq, a Western-style
campaign where a candidate can meet his supporters in big public
gatherings is all but impossible. Therefore, there will be
considerable use of visual and written media to get the message of the
candidates across. For the religious parties, both Shi'ite and Sunni,
the Friday sermons in mosques will no doubt play a key role in
motivating the voters to vote or, for that matter, to abstain from voting.
The biggest blast of the elections was delivered by the interim
Minister of Defense, Hazim al-Sha'lan, a Shi'ite himself, running on
the list of Prime Minister Allawi. On December 15 Al-Sha'lan
criticized the Alliance list as an "Iranian list" and denounced one of
its leading members, Dr. Hussein al-Shahristani: "This expert,"
al-Sha'lan told the press, "worked for two years on the Iranian
nuclear programs and today he claims to want to become a prime
minister. We will not allow him to do so." [24] The clerics in the
Hawza were quick to denounce al-Sha'lan and to declare him biased and
hence unsuitable to provide security to the polling stations and
protecting the voters. [25] The Iranians chimed in by calling Sha'lan
"a political midget." [26] In the meantime, the senior clerics in the
Shi'a Hawza are issuing fatwas calling upon their people to
participate in the elections as a religious duty. [27] Most Shi'as
will take such a fatwa quite seriously. Interviewed by al-Jazeera TV,
an old Iraqi lady who may be voting for the first time in her life put
it succinctly: "Sistani said to vote; I will vote." [28]
The Communist Party was the first political party to launch its
elections campaign. Amidst slogans "Communism is stronger than death
and higher than gallows," a reference to the many leaders of the party
who were hanged or shot by the various regimes in Iraq for more than
50 years, a large crowd of boisterous supporters gathered in a sports
stadium to launch the campaign. The party has adopted the sun as its
symbol because "the sun is red." A party official said the launching
of the campaign was "a challenge to terrorism and to the enemies of
the political process." [29]
The High Commission for Elections has been printing posters and
election material for mass distribution. It has also been advertising
in newspapers, radio and TV stations to explain the nature and the
mechanics of the forthcoming elections.
The Confusion of the Voters
While the multiplication of parties and political groups vying for
seats in the national assembly is, in one respect, a healthy sign of
political competitiveness which has been missing from the political
life of Iraq for more than four decades, there is also a downside to
this phenomenon. It confronts the voter with many choices - a
difficult situation even for experienced and educated voters, which
most Iraqis are not, at least in terms of experience. Following years
of oppression, freedom has sprung unencumbered in terms of free press
and free association. In the words of Hilla University scholar Farqad
al-Husseini al-Qazwini, who is running on the list of the Independent
Democratic Gathering of Adnan al-Pachachi, the post-Saddam reality has
allowed "every three individuals to form a party, every four
individuals to form an organization and every five individuals to form
a [political] movement." Quite often nobody knows for sure what any of
these groups stands for. [30]
Another person among those polled by the daily Al-Sharq Al-Awsat put
it thusly: "Under the shadow of the previous regime we were afraid of
the government but we opposed it in secret. It is the opposite now. We
have become afraid of the opposition which we do not know nor do we
know its intentions." [31]
Conclusion
All indications are that the elections will be held as scheduled on
January 30 and that there will be heavy participation by many segments
of the Iraqi population. However, the elections are not a magic wand
that will solve the country's burning security issues and they will
not necessarily lead quickly to democratic and stable government. A
balanced view of the elections must consider some of the risks involved:
* Attacks on even a few polling stations on polling day may deter
many Iraqis from voting.
* An abstention of the majority of the Sunni population from
voting may create, under the proportional representation system, a
lopsided Shi'a majority in the National Assembly which could call into
question the legitimacy of the results.
* The leading list sponsored by Ayatollah al-Sistani heavily
represents Shi'ite parties with strong connections to Iran. It is yet
to be determined whether these parties, once they gain the majority in
the National Assembly, will follow an independent nationalist course
or will fall prey to Iranian ambitions and schemes for Iraq.
* It is too soon to discount the possibility that the Kurds may
boycott the elections if their demands to declare Kirkuk as a Kurdish
city do not materialize.
* There are approximately 26 candidates for every seat in the
national assembly. One will be elected but 25 will be left out. Likely
claims of fraud could undermine the results of the elections.
* The vast majority of the Iraqi people have never participated in
free and competitive elections. It has yet to be established whether
the average Iraqi voter has the political maturity to exercise his/her
right to vote in a responsible manner.
The El-Salvador Precedent
An editorial in the Iraqi daily Al-Sabah urged the Iraqis to vote
despite the dangers of terrorism. It reminded them of the experience
in El-Salvador in 1982 when that country, like Iraq today, was
subjected to terrorist activities. Under popular pressure, the
elections were held on schedule, and the election of a parliament and
a new government was a turning point leading to the decline of
terrorism. It says the example is applicable to Iraq and "the Iraqis
should not be afraid of terrorism but, on the contrary, they should
confront it because the terrorists are cowards when confronted with
the will of the people." [32]
* Dr. Nimrod Raphaeli is Senior Analyst of MEMRI 's Middle East
Economic Studies Program.
[1] Al-Sabah (Baghdad), December 19, 2004.
[2] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), December 17, 2004.
[3] Al-Hayat (London), December 13, 2004.
[4] Al-Mada (Iraq), December 2, 2004.
[5] Baghdad (Iraq), December 16, 2004. The daily Baghdad is the
official organ of the National Accord Party.
[6] Al-Zaman (Iraq), December 15, 2004.
[7] Al-Hayat (London), December 19, 2004.
[8] Al-Mada (Baghdad), December 10, 2004.
[9] Al-Hayat (London), December 12, 2004.
[10] Al-Mada (Baghdad), December 22, 2004.
[11] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), December 14, 2004.
[12] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), December 26, 2004.
[13] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), December 10, 2004.
[14] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), December 24, 2004.
[15] Al-Hayat (London), December 19, 2004.
[16] Al-Mada (Baghdad), December 22, 2004.
[17] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), November 23, 2004.
[18] Al-Zaman (Iraq), December 12, 2004.
[19] Iran Daily, December 20, 2004.
[20] Al-Hayat (London), December 3, 2004.
[21] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), December 21, 2004.
[22] Al-Sabah (Baghdad), December 22, 2004.
[23] Al-Zaman (Iraq), December 15, 2004.
[24] Al-Sabah (Baghdad), December 19, 2004.
[25] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), December 17, 2004.
[26] Iran Daily, December 19, 2004.
[27] See, for example, the fatwa issued by Grand Ayatollah Kadhem
al-Ha'iri. www.karbalanews.net/artc.php?id=1608.
[28] Al-Jazeera TV (Qatar), December 16, 2004.
[29] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), December 17, 2004.
[30] Baghdad (Iraq), December 13, 2004.
[31] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), December 7, 2004.
[32] Al-Sabah (Iraq), December 18, 2004.
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