<http://www.iht.com/bin/print_ipub.php?file=/articles/2005/01/04/news/edyoung.html>
Give Assad more reasons to leave Lebanon Michael Young International Herald Tribune Wednesday, January 5, 2005 BEIRUT In recent weeks a bevy of U.S. officials, including President George W. Bush, has threatened Syria with sanctions unless it stops meddling in Iraqi affairs. However, it is in Lebanon that the regime of President Bashar Assad feels more profoundly threatened, because the masonry of Syrian power there is collapsing. An opposition front formed recently in Beirut with the aim of ending Syrian dominion over Lebanese affairs counts among its main figures the Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, a onetime Syrian ally. And former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, a Sunni Muslim to whom Syria also owes much, is an implicit sympathizer, even if he refuses to endorse the project. Jumblatt and Hariri turned their backs on Damascus in September after the Syrian regime imposed an extension of Emile Lahoud's mandate as president of Lebanon, despite resistance to the idea inside Lebanon and warnings from the United States and France that international action would ensue. When Syria persisted, Washington and Paris sponsored UN Security Council Resolution 1559, calling on Syria to withdraw its forces from Lebanon and cease interfering in the country's affairs. These demands effectively internationalized the Lebanese-Syrian relationship. A subsequent Security Council presidential statement mandated that twice a year the UN secretary general would report on implementation of Resolution 1559. The first report is scheduled for April. The Syrians have reacted by dissembling. They won't readily surrender a country that, because it is a front line in the conflict with Israel, bestows regional relevance on Syria and is a buffer to its southeast. Lebanon also provides the Syrian elite with myriad financial benefits, offers Syria a wedge into Palestinian affairs and gives work to hundreds of thousands of Syrian laborers who send remittances home. To derail international demands for a full withdrawal from Lebanon, Syria may carry out a partial redeployment inside Lebanon in the coming weeks. It may even pull the bulk of its forces out of Lebanon, leaving behind a few thousand Special Forces and intelligence units. Other sources have predicted that Syria will also close its intelligence headquarters in Anjar, a town in the Bekaa Valley. It is mainly Syrian intelligence that has run Lebanon for over two decades, so closing Anjar would be highly symbolic, though its practical import might be limited since Syria's network of agents would remain intact. By making such gestures, Syria would hope to forestall a harsh UN report in April and buy breathing space. This is a parliamentary election year in Lebanon, and Damascus is calculating how it might shape the electoral outcome to its advantage. It could force an early election to greet the UN report with a fully pro-Syrian Parliament, or it could wait for the report before deciding how much slack to cut the increasingly mobilized opposition. Either way, it is vital that the UN report cut through the chaff of Syrian intentions and identify a partial redeployment not as an effort to carry out Resolution 1559, but to evade it. There is a consensus in Lebanon that Syria's unbridled, open-ended control is poisoning Lebanese-Syrian relations in a way that is regrettable and avoidable. Most opposition figures have avoided exploiting Syria's difficulties with the United States to advance their agenda. Few would regard a Syrian pullout as a final divorce - quite the contrary. Even Jumblatt has said Syria can maintain forces inside Lebanon if it avoids intervening in Lebanese politics. That's why the United Nations should call Syria's bluff. No one will go to war with Syria over Lebanon, nor is that advisable; but it would be ridiculous if a mere shuffling of forces were enough for Syria to purchase a dispensation. Unless a Syrian withdrawal is immediate, the Security Council must outline interim steps to implement Resolution 1559, for example appointing international observers to verify Syrian nonintervention in Lebanese politics. In parallel, the United States and the United Nations should consider pushing for a resumption of Syrian-Israeli negotiations over the Golan Heights, which were occupied by Israel in 1967, and link that resumption (not the outcome of negotiations) to Syrian implementation of Resolution 1559. In that way, Syria would be offered an incentive, but also a stark choice: Does it want Lebanon or the Golan? The 28-year-old Syrian presence in Lebanon has lasted long enough. That's why Syria mustn't be allowed to circumvent Resolution 1559. However, it can be offered something to make fulfilling the resolution easier to swallow. Then Damascus might be better able to face its problems to the east, in Iraq. (Michael Young is opinion editor and a columnist at the Daily Star newspaper in Lebanon and a contributing editor at Reason magazine in the United States.) -- ----------------- R. A. Hettinga <mailto: [EMAIL PROTECTED]> The Internet Bearer Underwriting Corporation <http://www.ibuc.com/> 44 Farquhar Street, Boston, MA 02131 USA "... however it may deserve respect for its usefulness and antiquity, [predicting the end of the world] has not been found agreeable to experience." -- Edward Gibbon, 'Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire' ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> DonorsChoose. A simple way to provide underprivileged children resources often lacking in public schools. Fund a student project in NYC/NC today! http://us.click.yahoo.com/EHLuJD/.WnJAA/cUmLAA/TySplB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, [EMAIL PROTECTED] -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: osint@yahoogroups.com Subscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. This message contains copyrighted material whose use has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. OSINT, as a part of The Intelligence Network, is making it available without profit to OSINT YahooGroups members who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information in their efforts to advance the understanding of intelligence and law enforcement organizations, their activities, methods, techniques, human rights, civil liberties, social justice and other intelligence related issues, for non-profit research and educational purposes only. We believe that this constitutes a 'fair use' of the copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Law. If you wish to use this copyrighted material for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use,' you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/osint/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
