http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=5402221&startrow=1&date=2005-02-11&do_alert=0
NORTH KOREA: NUCLEAR BLUFF OR REAL THREAT? MOSCOW, February 11. (RIA Novosti)-The Foreign Ministry of North Korea announced yesterday that the country had nuclear weapons. Pyongyang explained that the treat emanating from the US had prompted the announcement and the country's withdrawal from the six-party talks on the settlement of the nuclear programs crisis. North Korea did not provide proof that it had nuclear weapons, but Washington and Moscow regard its statements seriously. Kommersant, Vremya Novostei and Vedomosti all comment on the story. Professor Alexei Bogaturov, the deputy director of the International Security Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, says the threat of an external attack dictates the logic behind Pyongyang's actions. "The US invasion of Iraq prompted all threshold countries to accelerate their nuclear weapons programs," he said. "They decided that the US would not have launched the war if Iraq had had nuclear weapons." The expert believes that US attacks at Iran over its nuclear program could have provoked Pyongyang's dramatic decision. But "the US will hardly resort to military force" in this case, Mr. Bogaturov said. "Russia and China will be against it." It is a fact that North Korea has not held nuclear tests. "The probability that the country has working nuclear devices, let alone nuclear weapons, is minimal," believes Yevgeny Myasnikov of the Center for Disarmament Problems. In his opinion, the North Korean statement might be a bluff. But other experts point out that a primitive nuclear charge can be built without tests and the probability that it will explode "is rather large." Observers admit that the presumed North Korean nuclear charge could be small enough to be carried by a transport plane. But they do not rule out that the country may have nuclear warheads, because it could get technical documents from some other country, such as Pakistan. The inclusion of North Korea in the "axis of evil" three years ago forced the communist preserve to elaborate a survival strategy for the presidency of George Bush. Yesterday's announcement is probably designed to strengthen the core that allows the national leaders to keep the public in check. They must show the people that they will not bow to foreign pressure and will not pay for their right to self-determination by making concessions to the US. -- If you were plowing a field, which would you rather use? Two strong oxen or 1024 chickens? -- Seymour Cray ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Give underprivileged students the materials they need to learn. Bring education to life by funding a specific classroom project. http://us.click.yahoo.com/FHLuJD/_WnJAA/cUmLAA/TySplB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, [EMAIL PROTECTED] -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: osint@yahoogroups.com Subscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. This message contains copyrighted material whose use has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. OSINT, as a part of The Intelligence Network, is making it available without profit to OSINT YahooGroups members who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information in their efforts to advance the understanding of intelligence and law enforcement organizations, their activities, methods, techniques, human rights, civil liberties, social justice and other intelligence related issues, for non-profit research and educational purposes only. We believe that this constitutes a 'fair use' of the copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Law. If you wish to use this copyrighted material for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use,' you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/osint/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
