http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2005/02/15 /MNGISBB3FO1.DTL
Iraq's <http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2005/02/1 5/MNGISBB3FO1.DTL> Shiites unlikely to be Iran's proxies Electoral victory may not boost Tehran's influence - Borzou Daragahi, Chronicle Foreign Service Tuesday, February 15, 2005 Tehran -- To hard-line cleric Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, every vote cast in Iraq's election was a "big 'no' to the U.S." The United States "has no option but to leave that country in shame" now that a coalition led by Shiite clerics and former exile groups with close ties to Iran has emerged victorious, said Maj. Gen. Rahim-Safavi, head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards. While the Bush administration sees Iraq's election as a vindication for the March 2003 invasion, Iranian conservatives see it as the first step toward getting U.S. troops out of the Persian Gulf region -- and greater influence over its neighbor. "Free and balanced elections help Iraq get back its sovereignty, and that will be the best guarantee to end the foreign occupation," said an Iranian diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "This will lead the region toward calm and development." Rhetoric aside, even nongovernmental observers have applauded the outcome. "Across the political spectrum the results are being perceived as positive," said Nasser Hadian, a professor of political science at the University of Tehran. "The general feeling is that there's going to be a friendly government in Baghdad." At first glance, the ties between Iran and the new government in Iraq are close. Iran sheltered Shiite and Kurdish exile groups who opposed Saddam Hussein. The Iranian government's clerical leaders maintain contact with colleagues in the Iraqi shrine cities of Najaf and Karbala, considered Shiite Islam's most holy sites. Nearly 70 percent of the 60,000 expatriate Iraqis who cast ballots in Iran voted for the United Iraqi Alliance, the winning Shiite coalition. Political ads for the alliance ran on state-controlled Iranian television. But the ties may be less binding than they appear. "The Iraqis have their own identity, and they're not going to follow the Iranian style," said Adnan Ali al-Kadhimi, an official of Iraq's Dawa party, one of the two main groups making up the victorious Shiite coalition. Regional experts say Iranians may be sorely disappointed if they expect the Shiite parties taking control of the government next door to act as Iranian proxies. "Shia Iraqis are themselves deeply ambivalent about Iran and Iranian influence in Iraq and can't be relied on to act in Iran's interests," said Simon Kitchen, Middle East analyst for Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy based in New York. Or, as Abbas Maleki, a former Iranian diplomat put it: "They're Arabs. We're not." Iranian commentators also worry that Iraq's inexperienced Shiite political leadership might mishandle the violent insurgency that has been driven largely by the Sunni Arab minority's unhappiness at losing the power it has historically held in Iraq. The new constitution, Hassan Hanizadeh wrote in the conservative Tehran Times, "must observe (Sunni Arab) rights in order to decrease the growing differences." The underlying worry is that a prolongation of the violence could keep U. S. troops in Iraq and the region indefinitely. "Even the conservatives are concerned about pushing the Sunni Arab minority into an even stronger stance of rejectionism, and so have urged the Shiite majority to act inclusively," said Juan Cole, a Middle East expert at the University of Michigan. Making some Iranians equally nervous is Kurdish talk about creating a federal Iraq with semiautonomous regions. "Federalism in Iraq would benefit Israel," said Maleki. "If Iraq were to fragment into separate entities, one of the countries might be drawn to Israel," he said. Either way, Iran is facing a dilemma, say some analysts. While an Iraq that's too chaotic might keep U.S. troops in the region, one that's too peaceful, prosperous and democratic could embolden Washington hawks who see Iran as the next front in the war on terror. Hadian dismisses the concern. "The rhetorical tension (between Washington and Tehran) is going higher. but there are not a lot of military options for the U.S. to exercise," he said. "The general perception is that there is more psychological warfare on the part of Americans." Page A - 6 [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> DonorsChoose. A simple way to provide underprivileged children resources often lacking in public schools. 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