http://www.geostrategy-direct.com/

Assassination of Chechen leader opens insurgency to full Al Qaida control 


Russian sources said the killing of Maskhadov reflected a high-level
decision by the Kremlin. The intelligence community had long followed
Maskhadov, with informants throughout Chechnya. Sources said Moscow
was alarmed over Maskhadov's increasing contacts with the European Union. 
 
Aslan Maskhadov
•  Age: 53 
•  Task: Chechen rebel leader 
•  Whereabouts: killed by Russian security forces 

Aslan Maskhadov is dead, but the Chechen war against Russia is far
from over and continues to affect countries from Iraq to Afghanistan. 
The killing of Maskhadov by Russian authorities on March 9 has brought
the leadership back to the source of the terrorist insurgency — Al Qaida. 

Maskhadov might have been the president of the separatist Chechen
government, but his authority stemmed from the Saudi-financed Shamil
Basayev. 

Unlike Basayev, Maskhadov commanded few, if any, of the estimated
1,500 full-time combatants in Chechnya. Moscow regarded Maskhadov as a
front for Chechen political leadership that would confront President
Vladimir Putin, should he ever succumb to Western pressure to
negotiate over the future of Chechnya. 

With Maskhadov out of the way, Basayev has now become the undisputed
leader of the Chechen insurgency, used by Al Qaida as the laboratory
of Islamic terrorism — whether in Afghanistan, Iraq or in Europe.
Chechnya is regarded as the most brutal battleground for Islamic
terrorists. The best completed a tour in Chechnya in preparation for
attacks against Western interests in Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Lebanon
and even Saudi Arabia. 

Maskhadov's contacts with the European Union included a conference by
his government-in-exile in London in February 2004. Moscow hopes that
with Maskhadov's death, the entire Chechen insurgency feels under threat. 
"When terrorists feel they are followed, armed groups detained, a top
leader eliminated — this creates an atmosphere that rules out the
prospect of terrorist attacks," said Russian parliamentarian Vladimir
Vasilyev, chairman of the Duma Security Committee.
 
That's the official view. The unofficial view is that Maskhadov was
not even a major target of Russian intelligence. He was not regarded
as a terrorist commander, but rather as a propagandist. 

"Maskhadov wasn't as influential as Basayev," Duma parliamentarian
Dmitri Rogozin said. "Rather, he was the commander of a toy force. We
would like to believe that after the elimination of Maskhadov, active
terrorist operations will decrease. But the situation over the last
few years shows that Maskhadov was seeking opportunities for
propaganda activities more than terrorist attacks." 
Basayev now has a free hand for Al Qaida to dominate the Chechen
insurgency. Already, hundreds, perhaps even thousands of Saudi and
other Arab nationals are fighting Russian troops in Chechnya. They
have brought with them money and expertise in bomb making and weapons
of mass destruction. Experts said for all of his fire, Maskhadov was
against the Al Qaida presence. 

"The invaders and puppets claim to be celebrating victory," Chechen
rebel ideologue Movladi Udugov said on an Al Qaida-aligned website. "A
new period in the history of the Russian-Chechen military
confrontation has started, which allows neither for negotiations nor
the end to the war."

Unlike Basayev, Maskhadov, a former Soviet colonel, tried the
democratic approach. In 1997, Maskhadov was elected president of the
so-called Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, the name given by Chechen
separatists. With encouragement from the West, he reached out to the
Kremlin for a political settlement. 
In contrast, Basayev was rejected in elections and turned to terrorism. 
  
With Al Qaida's help, Basayev specialized in massacres — including the
takeover of a Moscow theater in 2002 and the Beslan high school in 2004. 

Basayev was the first to introduce women suicide bombers and has
provided terrorist expertise to other Al Qaida-aligned groups. He is
so brutal that he ordered the killing of terrorists who opposed the
taking of children as hostages at Beslan. In all, at least 330 people
were killed in the two-day episode. 

Basayev was expected to take over the wing led by Maskhadov. Basayev
has appointed Abdul-Khalim Sadulayev, head of the Islamic Sharia
court, as interim president. Some sources say Sadulayev was a Saudi
national; other doubt whether he exists.
 
"This is some kind of bluff," Russian parliamentarian and former
Chechen leader Ruslan Yamadayev said. "I think there is no such person
on earth." 

Russian sources said the killing of Maskhadov reflected a high-level
decision by the Kremlin. The intelligence community had long followed
Maskhadov, with informants throughout Chechnya. Sources said Moscow
was alarmed over Maskhadov's increasing contacts with the European Union. 

"Maskhadov's death has radically changed the political situation for
the terrorist underground in Chechnya, as he was the only major
political figure that served as a political and, to a degree,
ideological cover for the terrorists and for devising their schemes in
the West and Russia," said Russian Institute of Strategic Studies
Director Evgeny Kozhokin said. 

"They need a person whom all normal people will not see as a political
terrorist and criminal who must be punished." 

Putin believes that Maskhadov's assassination would leave Arab and
European supporters of the Chechen revolt without a political
interlocutor. Basayev, whom no one disputes is a terrorist, would find
it difficult to find any government willing to associate him, let
alone fund him. 

"With Maskhadov dead, funding for the guerrillas may be drastically
reduced," Duma Security Committee deputy chairman Mikhail Grishankov
said. 

"Maskhadov was the one who helped attract money from abroad, and this
flow of revenue should decline now that he is dead. As a result, we
should expect a reduction in terrorist attacks and terrorist activity
in general, in the North Caucasus and other parts of Russia,"
Grishankov said. "But Shamil Basayev will remain the key figure among
the terrorists in the North Caucasus." 









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