http://www.kommersant.com/page.asp?id=574383

Oil Export
// Russia has choosen an Eastern draw

Oil will flow both to China and Japan

Russian Industry and Energy Minister Viktor Khristenko signed on April
26 a decree On Determination of the Stages of the Construction of the
Eastern Siberia â€" the Pacific Ocean Pipeline System. Mr. Khristenko
has succeeded in satisfying two large consumers, each of which laid
claims on the exclusive deliveries of the Russian oil. The oil will
reach both China and Japan through the Eastern “pipe”.
The decree Mr. Khristenko had signed before going on leave determined
the construction schedule. The first branch of the oil-pipeline
starting in Tayshet, Irkutsk region, and ending in Skovorodino, Amur
region, near the Chinese border will be pumping 20 million tons per
year as early as in the second half of the year 2008. Basing on these
facts, one can conclude that the pipeline is designed primarily for
oil supplies to China. However, the next article of the decree
(Kommersant has one of the copies) says that once the oil-pipeline’s
first branch to Skovorodino is launched, the first starting complex of
the oil terminal in the Perevoznaya bay, Primorye region, of the same
capacity (up to 30 million tons) will be placed in operation. It means
that the oil (planned to be extracted from well-know oil-fields in the
Western Siberia to fill up the first branch) will go where the Russian
authorities would turn it to. Either from Skovorodino to China by the
railroad (though this branch may be further laid on the territory of
China), or to Japan â€" then it will have to be reloaded into the tanks
in Skovorodino to load it later in the tankers in the Perevoznaya bay.
Moreover, Russia may prefer a compromise scheme dividing the oil
between the two Eastern neighbors in equal parts, or in any other
proportion. At any rate, the Ministry of Industry and Energy
controlling the Russian oil transportation alongside Transneft oil
transportation company will get the freedom to move on the whole
territory of Russia.

Besides, a wide choice of routes and means of transportation (Russian
Railways is unlikely to give up the old route to China it is using now
to export oil and is planning to boost export) will do Russian oil
companies good as their growth is now restrained by the carrying
capacity of the oil “pipe”. Both the Ministry of Industry and Energy
and the Ministry of Trade and Economic Development hope that the
availability of the pipeline constructed before will encourage the
influx of investment to explore new oil and gas provinces in the
Eastern Siberia. The construction of the second branch from
Skovorodino to Perevoznay looks doubtful without exploration of new
fields - in this case there would be nothing to fill up the pipeline
with, its capacity now being estimated at 50 million tons per year. We
remind our readers that the Eastern Pipelines will cost the total of
$16 billion.

That is why Mr. Khristenko’s decree does not mention the schedule of
the construction of the second branch at all. Anatoly Yanovsky,
director of the Ministry’s Federal Energy Agency, reckons that “we
have three years after which we will have to comprehend what has been
done in the sphere of the exploration of the Eastern Siberia’s
deposits”. “If we waste these years, it will mean that there won’t be
additional investment for the construction of the next section of the
pipeline for the Pacific Ocean coast ,” he said. In his opinion, the
start and the stages of the implementation of the second phase should
be determined in line with the program of the handing over the
oil-fields in the Eastern Siberia and the Far East for the temporary
use, confirmed by the Ministry of Natural Resources.

The Industry and Energy Minister Viktor Khristenko thinks that “the
forming of the united pipeline system will be terminated” in Russia
after the first branch is built. “By the year 2009, with the
construction of the Eastern Siberia â€" the Pacific Ocean pipeline the
task that was set back in the 80s will be fulfilled, i.e. the creation
of a system embracing the whole of the country,” the minister emphasized.

It is remarkable that Transneft is going to finance the construction
using debt capital exclusively. The decree makes it a point that “the
decision of the Government on the additional measures to support the
first phase of the construction of the oil-pipeline is not required”.
by  Alela Kornysheva; Evgenia Sokolova, Irkutsk

Russian Article as of Apr. 29, 2005





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